William R. Evanina, the director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center published a warning two weeks ago, that China, Iran and Russia were all looking to influence the 2020 election.
Democrats in Congress warned that Evanina’s warning did not go far enough in giving the American people the knowledge they need about how foreign powers are seeking to influence our political process.
Well, today he released a more detailed statement, and I doubt the Democrats are very pleased. From the updated statement:
Many foreign actors have a preference for who wins the election, which they express through a range of overt and private statements; covert influence efforts are rarer. We are primarily concerned about the ongoing and potential activity by China, Russia, and Iran.
CHINA – We assess that China prefers that President Trump – whom Beijing sees as unpredictable – does not win reelection. China has been expanding its influence efforts ahead of November 2020 to shape the policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as opposed to China’s interests, and deflect and counter criticism of China. Although China will continue to weigh the risks and benefits of aggressive action, its public rhetoric over the past few months has grown increasingly critical of the current Administration’s COVID-19 response, closure of China’s Houston Consulate, and actions on other issues. For example, it has harshly criticized the Administration’s statements and actions on Hong Kong, TikTok, the legal status of the South China Sea, and China’s efforts to dominate the 5G market. Beijing recognizes that all of these efforts might affect the presidential race.
RUSSIA – We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia “establishment.” This is consistent with Moscow’s public criticism of him when he was Vice President for his role in the Obama Administration’s policies on Ukraine and its support for the anti-Putin opposition inside Russia. For example, pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption – including through publicizing leaked phone calls – to undermine former Vice President Biden’s candidacy and the Democratic Party. Some Kremlin-linked actors are also seeking to boost President Trump’s candidacy on social media and Russian television.
IRAN – We assess that Iran seeks to undermine U.S. democratic institutions, President Trump, and to divide the country in advance of the 2020 elections. Iran’s efforts along these lines probably will focus on on-line influence, such as spreading disinformation on social media and recirculating anti-U.S. content. Tehran’s motivation to conduct such activities is, in part, driven by a perception that President Trump’s reelection would result in a continuation of U.S. pressure on Iran in an effort to foment regime change.
So, that’s China and Iran against Trump and Russia against Biden. You’ll note that the Russian interference amounts to anti-Biden statements and not overt support for Trump. That’s not the Trump/Russian collusion the Dems were looking for in the expanded statement.
See also: “Can we make a quick U-turn?”
Also of note, there was no mention of actual vote alterations or attempts at same. All the efforts detailed are influence related. These countries are attempting, via social media mainly, to alter American’s perceptions of the issues involved in the election.