I’m going to say this up front. The US and NATO did not need to be in Afghanistan after mid 2003. I have said that repeatedly over the intervening years. I feel that I needed to start with that disclaimer before I get into why It Didn’t Have To Be This Way.
With that disclaimer out of the way, let’s start with the obvious. The US backed Afghan government never stood a chance. Why? you might ask, and rightly so. After all, the US has dumped billions into that money pit with little to show for it.
Nation building requires a sense of purpose that frankly the US hasn’t had since WWII. The last truly successful effort at nation building the US undertook was in South Korea after the partition of the peninsula at the end of WWII. Why was that successful? Easy, the US installed a strongman in Syngman Rhee who did what was required of him to rule that country effectively.
Let’s be clear, that type of thing was never going to happen in Afghanistan, which is less of a country and more of a collection of tribes that share a language. Any US backed government was going to be looked at with suspicion and hostility by a large portion of the population. Don’t believe that? Just look at what the Soviets, who were far, far less concerned with public perception and human rights than we are, accopmplished in the 9 years they were in Afghanistan. Absolutely nothing.
Now, how did the US get the timeline so wrong? There are reports circulating that they didn’t in fact get it wrong. Any intel that ran contrary to what the Hologram and his handlers wanted to believe was simply ignored. Just last week a State Department cable warning of the imminent collapse of the ANSDF and the government came to light. The cable was sent in June and file-drawered. Mark Milley, a man I used to have a fair amount of respect for, said there was a range of estimates of the fall of the Afghan government, ranging from a year or more on the long side to a rapid collapse like we witnessed. You will note that there was no estimate that showed anything but collapse.
Tom Jocelyn and Bill Roggio run a website called the Long War Journal. They’ve been predicting the rapid collapse of the Afghan government for months. I recommend you check out the site, they do great work with open source intelligence on both Afghanistan and Iraq. If two reporters could accurately predict what happened, why couldn’t the US intelligence services do it?
There are a couple of truly disturbing stories kicking around regarding the tally ban. First up is the fact that during negotiations in Doha Qatar, the fall of afghanistan was brought up. The taliban offered to let the US secure Kabul until the evac was completed. Of course the hologram declined the offer. He probably didn’t want the optics of sending in a divisions worth of troops to secure the city. Imagine how different things would be if he had taken that offer.
Second is the list thing. Seems the taliban was given a list of names of people that were to be allowed through to the airport. I don’t know what idiot approved that idea, but whoever it was needs to be prosecuted. Nothing like providing a list of potential hostages/enemies/targets to the taliban.
Marine Corps Cpl. Daegan Page, 23, of Omaha, Nebraska
Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Rylee McCollum, 20, of Jackson, Wyoming
Marine Corps Staff Sgt. Darin T. Hoover, 31, of Salt Lake City, Utah
Marine Corps Sgt. Johanny Rosariopichardo, 25, of Lawrence, Massachusetts
Marine Corps Sgt. Nicole L. Gee, 23, of Sacramento, California
Marine Corps Cpl. Hunter Lopez, 22, of Indio, California
Marine Corps Cpl. Humberto A. Sanchez, 22, of Logansport, Indiana
Marine Corps Lance Cpl. David L. Espinoza, 20, of Rio Bravo, Texas
Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Jared M. Schmitz, 20, of St. Charles, Missouri
Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Dylan R. Merola, 20, of Rancho Cucamonga, California
Marine Corps Lance Cpl. Kareem M. Nikoui, 20, of Norco, California Navy Corpsman Maxton Soviak, 22, of Berlin Heights, Ohio
Army Staff Sgt. Ryan C. Knauss, 23, of Corryton, Tennessee
Remember those names. Their deaths are a direct result of the incompetent withdrawal from Afghanistan. And It Didn’t Have To Be This Way. . .