Most of you know that this Editor is a history type guy. I also consider myself a student of war and the causes thereof. So it’s through that lens I have been watching the events unfolding in eastern Europe.
The alarming Russian buildup on the Ukrainian frontier continues with around 130,000 troops and their equipment now within 50km of the border. That buildup consists of around 100 battalion tactical groups of the Russian ground forces, several VDV paratrooper regiments and at least two army level headquarters.
Many of those units are part of the Far East military district, meaning they travelled more than 5,000 miles.
What hasn’t been seen, yet, are the medical and logistical units that generally presage an invasion. Although, recent report say those units are starting to move.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes
Samuel Clemens AKA Mark Twain
Why did I choose that particular quote? Simple, the world is sleepwalking into another world war. With the weak (yah, it’s understatement) US leadership and the feckless behavior of some NATO countries (I’m looking at you Germany), Vladimir Putin thinks he can do as he wishes in regards to Ukraine. The amount of appeasement going on brings to mind Neville Chamberlain and Peace in Our Time. Add to that the odd layers of treaty obligations a la WWI and it is becoming a toxic brew that will only have one outcome.
Before we go any further, I am compelled to bring up the Budapest Memorandum. That document gave security assurances to newly independant Ukraine in exchange for nuclear disarmament. At the time of the agreement, Ukraine had the third most nuclear weapons in the world. The document when signed in 1994, laid out 6 international obligations.
- Respect Belarusian, Kazakh and Ukrainian independence and sovereignty in the existing borders.
- Refrain from the threat or the use of force against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
- Refrain from using economic pressure on Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to influence their politics.
- Seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine if they “should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used”.
- Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
- Consult with one another if questions arise regarding those commitments
For twenty years the Budapest memorandum was upheld as a beacon for nuclear disarmament. However in 2014, Russia abrogated it’s obligations when it invaded and annexed the Crimean peninsula.
So, what happens when Russia invades? Really that depends on Putin’s goals. If he wants to annex the majority ethnic Russian areas that are currently disputed, there isn’t much anyone can do. If he wants to topple the existing government, well, that’s a different Kettle of borsht.
The US and UK have supplied Ukraine with thousands of anti-tank missiles, the US Javelin and the UK NLAW. Both are capable of taking out a T-72 or T-80 tank and their crew. In addition, Ukraine’s Baltic neighbors have supplied Stinger MANPADS and large amounts of artillery and small arms.
That leaves us with the question of when. Given what I’ve seen of the buildup so far, I don’t think it will be long. The last pieces of the puzzle, the medical and logistics units, are moving into place. Expect some sort of Russian false flag before the invasion kicks off. There are unconfirmed reports that Spetznatz units are planning to dress in Ukrainian uniforms and attack a separatist held position in Luhansk Oblast.