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Putin’s War, Week 64. Patriots Score Big and the Scene Is Set for Offensive Action

19 May 2023
KITDAFBS

T-72 Tank. CREDIT: vecstock via Freepik

streiff | RedState

Most of the action over the last week has been away from the line of contact between the forces. Fighting continues around Bakhmut that may or may not shape up to be something significant. At this stage of the conflict, I’ve come to the conclusion that Russia is obsessed with winning this battle, even if they immediately withdraw because they desperately need a battlefield success…or at least the Russian military command needs one.

The success of the Ukrainian layered air defense system, capped by Patriot, has been proven in spades this week as it fended off two large and determined Russian missile attacks.

A new Ukrainian brigade equipped with Leopard 2 tanks, CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles, and Archer 155mm artillery has just arrived in country from training in Sweden. These new brigades disappear as soon as they hit Ukrainian soil. In addition, the Ukrainians have stepped up their strikes on logistics areas, air defense systems, communications facilities, troop assembly areas, and headquarters. All of this indicates a shift in focus away from the front lines toward damaging Russia’s capacity to respond to an offensive.

Speaking of soil, the battlespace is rapidly drying and opening the window for offensive action by either side.

The bezdorizhzhia (Ukrainian for the time of no roads or mud season) is just about over. Once the ground frms up enough to support heavy vehicles like tanks and A/IFVs the spring offensive will kick off in earnest. The shaping ops have been ongoing for a few weeks now.

See some of my previous updates for more great reading.

Putin’s War, Week 63. Chechens Replace Wagner in Bakhmut, Storm Shadow Arrives, and Russia Says ‘Family Guy’ Is a Meany-Pants

Putin’s War, Week 62. Kremlin Droned, Russia Dissed by Friends and Allies, and Ukraine’s Offensive Takes Shape

Putin’s War, Week 61. Xi Calls, Prigozhin Sounds El Degüello, and Surprise Attacks at Sevastopol, Kherson, and (Maybe) St. Petersburg

Putin’s War, Week 60. Leaked Documents, a Russian Troll Exposed, and More Pieces Fall Into Place

Putin’s War, Week 59. Russia Goes ISIS and Waiting for General Mud to Take a Break

Putin’s War, Week 58. All Dressed Up and No Place to Go

Putin’s War, Week 57. Waiting for Godot.

Putin’s War, Week 56. Putin Indicted for War Crimes, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time

Putin’s War, Week 55. Russia Drops US Recon Drone, Ukraine Suffers From ‘Loose Lips’ as It Doubles Down on Bakhmut

Putin’s War, Week 54. More NordStream Melodrama, Russia Shows Diplomatic Weakness, and the Bakhmut Flipflop

Putin’s War, Week 53. Zelensky Blows a Big Play, Moscow Dodges a Drone Attack, and Russia’s Spring Offensive Fizzles

Putin’s War, Week 52. US and China Face off, Prigozhin Goes for the Jugular, Mystery Weapon Strikes, and Happy Anniversary

Putin’s War, Week 51. Russia’s Slow-Mo Offensive Gets Underway

Putin’s War, Week 50. The Calm Before the Storm

Putin’s War, Week 49. Waiting for the Russian Offensive

Putin’s War, Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukrainian Landscape

Putin’s War, Week 47. Gerasimov Shakes Up the Russian Army and the Russian Spring Offensive Looms

Putin’s War, Week 46. Putin Shakes up the Army Command, Prigozhin Shows How It’s Done, and Western Tanks for Ukraine Are on the Way

Putin’s War, Week 45: Putin Declares a Cease Fire, Zelensky Gets Putin’s Terms for Peace, and if You’re Fighting a War, Leave Your Cell Phone Home

Putin’s War, Week 44. Drones Strike Russian Strategic Bomber Base…Again… Prigozhin Makes His Move

Putin’s War, Week 43. Zelensky Visits the Front Lines and Washington, Putin Tries to Push Belarus Into War

Putin’s War, Week 42. Ukraine Gets the Nod to Strike Targets in Russia and Some Tools to Do It With

Many more are available at this link.

Politico-Strategic Level

Patriot vs. Russian Missiles

One of the major stories since the last update has been the performance of the Patriot missile batteries used by the Ukrainian armed forces. Nearly two weeks ago, Patriot engaged and destroyed a single Russian Kh-47 hypersonic missile (Ukraine Confirms a US-Supplied Patriot Air Defense System Shot Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile). This set off shockwaves because this was a weapon that Putin, himself, had named as being a game changer for Russian conventional forces. Monday, Russia tried to overwhelm the Patriot systems guarding Kiev, firing 18 top-of-the-line missiles, six of them were Kh-47s. All of them were shot down; see Patriot Leaves Skeptics Wordless, Russians Embarrassed, and Kiev Littered With Pieces of Putin’s Wonder Weapons. The Russian Defense Minister Sergei “the Plywood Marshal” Shoigu claimed five Patriot systems were destroyed. However, more reliable reports indicate that one unnamed component may have suffered very minor damage from falling debris and remained in service without repair.

This was the first test of Patriot against multiple missile types, including hypersonic missiles, fired from different locations. It passed the test.

Wednesday night, the Russians were back at work. They targeted four cities with a total of 30 missiles. Just one made it through the air defense system. Only a few were fired at Kiev. No Kh-47s were used.

I think the performance of the PAC-3 Patriot system in Ukraine surprised a lot of people on both sides. I know the Saudis have tried to use it against Houthi rockets with mixed success. Whether that’s down to the skill and motivation of the operators or some other factor, I just don’t know.

Kh-47 Development Team Charged with Treason

I’m sure this is totally not related to anything that has happened in Ukraine.

The official line from the Kremlin on the charges is that the scientists published a paper about ‘gas dynamics in a static environment’ and presented it at a conference in Iran.

South Africa Ships Arms to Russia

Most nations, other than Iran and North Korea, have studiously avoided shipping arms to Russia. Now there is a new member of that august company, South Africa. South Africa is a member of the Chinese-dominated developing world trade group BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) that Beijing hopes to create as an alternative power center to Brussels.

South Africa’s response is like something Bart Simpson would say, “I didn’t do it, you didn’t see me, you can’t prove it.” They said there is “no record” of arms shipments to Russia and, besides that, the US is sending arms to Ukraine.

If I were buying arms, I’d be very worried about the quality control of SA munitions. They can’t even keep the electricity on there.

Can’t Tell the Players Without a Program

The Russian military in Ukraine has gone through commanders to use a dated metaphor, the way Elizabeth Taylor went through husbands. I’m all in favor of ruthlessly weeding out commanders at the first hint of stupidity or incompetence, so long as you’re trading up and you’re putting the guy you fired on the street. The Russians have established quite a churn in senior leadership ranks, but the guys they fire end up commanding other units. So I’m not sure what they are accomplishing beyond looking tough and causing confusion.

There is an historical analogue to this in Russian/Soviet history. Stalin did the same things for the first year of WWII. He replaced ineffective commanders with other ineffective commanders. Unfortunately for Putin, there is no Zhukov or Rossokovsky stuck in some gulag to pull his fat out of the fire.

Another Useless Treaty Dies

One of the side effects of President George H. W. Bush’s campaign to make sure the USSR’s — and Russia’s — feelings were not hurt over losing the Cold War was to suck up to them in every way possible. Russia was allowed to illegally (in my view) inherit the USSR’s UN Security Council seat. We let Russia become the counterparty to treaties we’d signed with the USSR even when they made zero sense beyond giving the Kremlin a participation trophy. These are slowly but surely going away. President Trump withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty (Treaty Fetishists Go Into Mourning as President Trump Announces the US Will Leave the Open Skies Treaty) and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Trump Announces the US Is Leaving a Treaty Russia Is Violating and You Can Guess What Happened).

Now Vladimir Putin has withdrawn from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty that limited the number of troops and types of equipment that NATO and the USSR could have in Europe.

I’m not sure anyone cares how many conventional forces Russia has anymore. Plus, the limits work to the disadvantage of NATO. Good riddance.

The withdrawal is just window dressing. The Russians violated the treaty when they started massing troops for the invasion.

Japan Treats Wounded Ukrainian Soldiers

Japan has joined the network of nations providing long-term medical care to Ukrainian soldiers wounded in action.

Notice me Senpai! (And I realize maybe one person reading this will get that joke/reference. If you want or need an explanation hit me up in the comments)

Rheinmetall Opens Joint Venture in Ukraine

The German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is opening a joint venture in Ukraine. It will provide service and repair to German-made vehicles above the unit echelon of maintenance. More intriguingly, it will “produce selected Rheinmetall products” in Ukraine. Rheinmetall produces any weapon system an army could need,, from artillery to the Leopard tank, the Marder infantry fighting vehicle, and a whole lot more. The “transfer of technology” provision has a lot of implications for Ukraine’s indigenous weapons industry.

This is a really big deal. Prior to the invasion, the Ukrainians had a thriving export arms business. They built a bunch of upgraded soviet era stuff that sold very well on the international market.

Russian Aircraft Downed in “SAM Ambush”

Over the weekend, Russia lost four aircraft to a fairly clever ambush by a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. I covered the story when it broke, see Four Russian Aircraft Were Shot Down Over Russia in a Couple of Minutes and No One Is Giving Straight Answers, and not a whole lot more has come to light since then.

Dmitry Medvedev Pines for Lost Lands

If you ever get the urge to believe that Russia can ever be appeased regarding territorial expansion, you should think again. I’ve written on the subject a couple of times (Putin’s Threats to Sweden and Finland Are Much More Real Than They Are Being Given Credit For and Did a Quickly Deleted Essay in Russian Media Explain What Vladimir Putin Wants Russia to Gain From the Ukraine Invasion?) using what Putin and his inner circle have told us their intentions are.

This is former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev using the occasion of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron to point out Russia’s territorial claims on the Baltic States and Poland.

When these people tell us what they want to do, we should listen to them.

Remember, the whole Novarossiya thing has featured prominently in Russian propaganda since before the war started.

Russia  vs. Eurovision

During the Eurovision 2023 event, a Ukrainian group called Tvorchi was on stage singing their entry (guys, I just write the posts, I don’t write the music or sing, so please don’t blame me for this dross).

If you want a treat, watch Moldova’s 18th-place entry.

As they were performing, Russian cruise missiles hit their hometown Ternopil.

They went on to finish 6th of 26.

This epitomizes Russia’s conduct during this war. Its governing principle is senseless, purposeless violence. Ternopil in nowhere near the front lines and nothing of military value was hit. The attack was timed to strike while the hometown band was on stage. Pathetic.

The Clown Gap Widens

This is one of those clips that show Russia’s politicians or media at their best. Yes, we have clowns in our Congress who think Guam will tip over, but rest assured that Russia has mo’ better clowns.

Operational Level

In my opinion, we are within a couple of weeks, at most, of Ukraine’s Spring Counteroffensive. As I mentioned earlier, the last fully trained and equipped brigades are coming home from various European training locations. New equipment is arriving, and we see proof that the Ukrainians sent abroad for training have learned their lessons well. We still don’t know how well the new brigades will perform in combat, but video is showing that frontline brigades are changing their Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) to more closely model Western European combined arms operations.

This summary by British Defense Intelligence, I think, underscores the difficulties facing the Russians. They have 200,000 troops to cover 1,200 kilometers of frontage; that is the distance from New York City to Savannah, GA. That is 166 men per kilometer, or one man every six meters. That is a good density, but to achieve it, they can’t have anyone who is not an infantryman. So if those troops are in 70 regiment/brigade equivalents, that means about 140,000 troops are in combat units.

The last bullet is the kicker. Ordinarily, you’d want a reserve to be about one-third the size of your total force. Suddenly you’re left with 93,000 troops to hold the front lines, a density of 77 men per kilometer or one man per 13 meters. This allows the attacker to achieve overwhelming numerical superiority at virtually any point. Positioning the reserve forces so they can stop a breakthrough is an entirely different problem.

Russia only avoids a disaster if Ukraine can’t synchronize its combat forces to punch through the ersatz fortified lines and/or it can’t manage the logistics to sustain an advance.

The amount of success Ukraine achieves during the spring offensive is going to come down to how much they have absorbed and internalized from their western training. If they follow the doctrine that they’ve been taught, they will roll up a lot of territory in a relatively short period of time. If they fall back into the old Soviet doctrinal ways, they will only see modest gains.

New Weapons
ADM-160 Miniature Air Launched Decoy (MALD)

The ADM-160 MALD made its way onto the list of “New Weapons” not by a press release but by pieces of it littering the streets of Russian-occupied Luhansk.

Here are videos explaining more about what it is and how to use it.

It’s interesting that the US allowed the transfer of the MALD. I have to wonder if they are downgraded in some way to prevent tech transfer.

Storm Shadow Arrives

Last update I posted about the British Storm Shadow cruise missile being transferred to Ukraine. This places all Russian military facilities in the theater of operation at risk. This has forced the Russians to relocate logistics and command and control facilities further to the rear. The relocation forces Russian commanders to spend more windshield time during combat operations than they’d like and increases their vulnerability. It also strains the already overstretched Russian truck/tanker fleet by forcing them to spend more time on the road while it hampers the supply status of front-line units.

Logistical issues were the biggest reason WWII lasted as long as it did in Europe. As the Army advanced, supply lines were stretched to near breaking. The Russians do not have the transshipment capability that the US had back then. Storm Shadow puts any depot or ammo dump in danger of destruction.

Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Storm Shadow and MALD

Storm Shadow and MALD were used for the first time to take out a logistics facility in Luhansk, Occupied Ukraine.

As a side benefit, Russian State Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky was in Luhansk during the festivities and took the opportunity to go into one of the buildings to inspect the damage, and a wall collapsed on him. His injuries were superficial. Maybe they should make him a Dumbass deputy as well as a Duma deputy.

Serves his dumb ass right. If there is anything I hate more than a politician, it’s a politician at the front.

Northern Front
Donbas

 Bakhmut Update

This city has captured the imagination of the press because it has resisted Russian attacks for about seven months. The Russians are clearly obsessed with conquering it, perhaps so their online followers who’ve proclaimed Bakhmut captured every day for the last seven months can finally claim to be correct.

There are low-level Ukrainian counterattacks taking place on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut. As this is happening, Russian forces are still pushing forward, house by house, inside the city. You can see the approximate lines of advance indicated by the light blue areas in the bottom third of the map.

As I mentioned above, it seems like the Russians are fixated on taking all of Bakhmut even if they have to immediately abandon it. In the last week they have been targeting bridges in the Ukrainian rear, bridges they’ve left alone for the last seven months. This indicates the Russians are more concerned about the Ukrainians using the bridges to advance than in saving them for any Russian offensive.

I saw an article recently, ISW I think, that rated troop effectiveness by LOC sector. It seems the Russians are pouring their most combat effective troops into the Bakhmut sector, and the troops elsewhere are of poor quality. If that’s true, then the exsanguination happening in and around that city starts to make some sense. It will allow a UAF breakthrough elsewhere and exploitation of those breakthroughs.

Rear Areas
Luhansk

Partisan Operations

The quisiling Interior Minister of Occupied Luhansk, Igor Kornet, really should’ve skipped that haircut.

Crimea

Partisan Operations

The train track near Chistenkoe in Occupied Crimea was damaged by an explosion and a train derailed.

I expect these kinds of attacks to ramp up considerably in the days preceding the kickoff of the spring offensive. They primarily do two things, disruption of supply lines, no matter how trivial and they tie up troops.

Sabotage in Russia

A train was set on fire in Kazan, Russia.

What’s Next?

I think the next several days will see Ukraine starting to hit targets that have been out of reach in the past. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the new brigades appear near Bakhmut. This would serve to fix Russian forces in place and possibly get them to commit any local reserve as it would look like this was part of the Spring Counteroffensive. I still believe the main attack will be on the Tokmak-Melitopol axis and the only thing that can slow it down is lack of tactical proficiency by the Ukrainians.

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