This week’s big headline is the media narrative that the Ukrainian offensive is failing.
New: Early stages of Ukraine's counteroffensive are having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials & a senior US military official tell me. West remains “optimistic” longer term. https://t.co/EB8fWpB3L2
The beauty of anonymous sources recounted by an unreliable reporter for a cable news outlet that would sell its own mother to a Turkish whoremonger for ratings is you can’t evaluate the claim.
I don’t know if it is true or not, but the story is out there, and I’ll discuss it later in the post.
There were major political shifts over the last week as Sweden stepped up its contribution to Ukraine’s defense, and the US Congress is considering several bills focused on setting the conditions for a Ukrainian military victory with no talk of an “off ramp” for Putin.
Next week there probably will not be an update. I will be in the hospital for part of the week for non-life-threatening but non-trivial surgery.
After much shilly-shallying over the last year, the US Congress is finally taking leadership in turning back Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. In the early days, the strategy seemed to be to bleed the Ukrainians into submission. Given the romance that much of State and Defense have had with the idea that Russia could be a useful security partner in Europe, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia, this was not all that shocking. Slowly the direction under, and I say this in only the most begrudging way, SecDef Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony (no “h”) Blinken have changed to pushing for an outright defeat of Russia. In my view, this is the most realistic view of how to deal with Russia since Ronald Reagan spent them into bankruptcy.
Now Congress is showing some leadership. The following bills have passed and are headed for Joe Biden’s desk. Whether he signs them depends on how much compromising material the Russian FSB has on Joe, James, and Hunter Biden.
H.R. 4175/S. 2003 would confiscate $350 billion in frozen Russian assets and redirect it to rebuilding Ukraine.
H.Res. 332/S.Res. 172 would embrace the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine as US policy.
H.R. 506/S. 416 would designate Wagner Group PMC as a terrorist organization.
H.Res. 154/S.Res. 72 would classify Russia’s occupation of Ukraine as genocidal.
The House has passed H.R. 3979, which declares Russia a terrorist state, and H. Res. 488, which calls on the Biden White House to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
In light of this, I don’t see how Putin’s strategy of “wait the West out” makes a whole lot of sense. But neither did the invasion of Ukraine.
The problem I see with Putin’s strategy is that several of the countries he wants to ‘wait out’ correctly see Russian aggression as an existential threat. Poland, Finland and the Baltic States all see Putin and Russia as mortal foes.
Missile Attack on Kiev
Friday, Kiev was hit by a missile attack. The hardened air defense system destroyed all the incoming missiles. That said. one of the side effects of destroying a missile is that the wreckage has to fall somewhere. When it hits the ground, it may break things and hurt people. The tradeoff is protecting critical assets.
🔥Ukraine air defense destroyed 6 out of 6 Kindzhal missiles, 6 out of 6 Kalibr missiles that russia attacked Ukraine with today, 2 reconnaissance drones, Ukraine air forces reported pic.twitter.com/QUCabBHE9p
African Leaders’ Peace Mission to Kiev Greeted With Russian Missiles
A delegation of African leaders (South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda), led by South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, was in Kiev to discuss a peace proposal when the Russian missile strike hit.
Drones and missiles launched against Kyiv just as African leaders arrive in Ukraine on peace mission
The delegation headed to Moscow the next day after bizarrely insisting that no attack had taken place.
It's bizarre that the SA presidency is denying the Russian missile attack, which has been widely reported by international media and the Ukrainian authorities. Reuters journalists witnessed the African leaders going into an air-raid shelter during the attack. https://t.co/WHh8G2WAAz
There was no evidence Vladimir Putin took their plan seriously.
Cyril Ramaphosa has enough trouble at home. The unemployment rate in South Africa is north of 30%, the power grid is collapsing and they can barely feed themselves. He has his head buried in the sand about that too. . .
Ukrainian recognition of Russian ownership of Crimea.
The disbanding of the Ukrainian Army (his codeword is “demilitarization”).
Ukraine renounces ever applying for NATO membership.
The Ukrainian government of “nazis and drug addicts” be replaced.
Friday, Putin spokesman Dmitry “Porn ‘Stache” Peskov announced one of those goals had been accomplished.
Peskov said that the task of Ukraine's demilitarization had been "largely fulfilled"
Putin's spokesman explained that Ukraine is using less and less of its own weapons, which are being replaced by Western weapons. As a result, NATO countries "intervene" in the conflict, causing… pic.twitter.com/n5PSp4e15d
Using this logic, Ukraine could promise never to apply to join NATO if NATO accepted it as a member.
Yah, none of his stated aims/demands are going to happen. The only thing this invasion did was make Russia a pariah state. Oh, and it put paid to the myth of Russian military strength.
The Face of the Russian Dead
Among the members of the Open Source Intelligence community, there is a group that collates the obituaries of Russian soldiers from newspapers and social media. The BBC has an interesting analysis that shows how the Russian Army has changed since the war started. The deaths captured from open source are just a fraction of the total. I would imagine the data from early in the war is more accurate than the newer data because earlier in the war, more soldiers had someone who cared about them. No matter how the war ends, the implications for what this means to the Russian Army are staggering.
BURN RATE: In the first 3 months of the Russian invasion, the typical Russian casualty was aged 21, a a professional soldier and his rank was private. In the last three months, the typical RU casualty is age 34, has no rank, & was released prisoner. https://t.co/ygB1JEkklV
Between the war and emigration to avoid transcription, Russia may have lost most of a generation of young men.
I don’t typically get too worked up about Russian losses in Ukraine. This time it’s no different, except for the fact that I fear for the future of the Russian people. I have the uneasy feeling we are witnessing the dissolution of Russia as a state. The Chinese are already eyeing parts of far eastern Russia where ethnic Chinese make up a goodly percentage of the population.
After the Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam
The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam stopped any immediate Ukrainian offensive action in that sector, but it opened the way for a brand new axis of advance in late summer.
PUTIN'S MISTAKE: RU’s demolition of the Kakhovka Dam was not only inhumane, but stupid. @bayraktar_1love posts this video of the’ desertification' of the Kakhovka reservoir. By August, this bottom land will be baked hard and UKR will use it to cross the Dnipro & flank Melitopol. https://t.co/EccUEjnWX5pic.twitter.com/fFqbXY3Emd
It is hard to watch the actions of the Russian Armed Forces and credit them with any of the classic military virtues. As volunteers and the Ukrainian military struggled to rescue civilians caught in the flood set off by Russian action, the Russian military attacked the rescuers. This is a blatant violation of the Geneva Convention and happened at such a scale that one can safely rule out rogue elements on the front lines acting alone.
Russian "journalists" posted a video of the shelling of foreign volunteers who were involved in the evacuation of the civilian population. As a result of the shelling, a volunteer from England, John Jones, was wounded pic.twitter.com/yLPYIHPwCn
The shrapnel entered his thigh and lower abdomen, but was stopped by his pelvis, which likely saved his life. He thanks everyone for the well wishes, but refuses any financial assistance, saying it should go to those more in need. https://t.co/EafNCODxiCpic.twitter.com/XcDbJgMlZO
— Dylan Burns 🇺🇦🏳️🌈 (@DylanBurns1776) June 15, 2023
Once again, for the umpteenth time, Russia is a terrorist state.
Ukrainian “Biological Warfare” Resurrected by the Russians
Russia has wheeled out Igor Kirillov, the lt. gen who made the baseless "dirty bomb" claims against Ukraine, once again.
Now he is accusing the US of supplying Kyiv with special drones carrying "infected mosquitos" that are going to spread malaria among Russia's invading forces pic.twitter.com/uCspMnCdOU
There is no word on how the mosquitos have been trained only to attack Russian forces while leaving Ukrainian forces and civilians alone. I suspect this is the setup to obscure a larger story. When the Russians destroyed the Kakhovka Dam (Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding), they managed to contaminate drinking water in much of the area they occupy in Kherson causing the re-emergence of that quintessential pre-20th century, Third World disease, cholera.
The downstream effects of Russia blowing the Kakhovka dam are now starting to eat into the Russian manpower making the Putin Régime's Courland Pocket defense of southern Ukraine.
Waterborne disease has been washed into the mobiks.
In all seriousness, the assault mosquito story is, as Streiff says, most likely a cover story for the inevitable outbreak of cholera among the Russian troops. I’ve had some small experience with the Russians and well, let’s just say they don’t have the best record of hygiene. The Soviet cantonment areas I saw when they finally left Germany in 1994 made me wonder if they weren’t keeping livestock instead of troops. The Russians in the Balkans were worse. I can’t imagine camp sanitation has improved any for them with all the convicts joining the ranks.
Operational Level
Overview
The general scheme of maneuver looks very much like last week. But there is a new twist.
The Ukrainian Army is advancing steadily on two primary axes of advance, Tokmak and Velyka Novosiika. On both axes, they are covering about a kilometer per day using light infantry with some mechanized and armor support. The combat is drone-heavy. Artillery strikes have shifted from the front lines to the direct support artillery, supply points, and troops assembly areas several kilometers behind the line.
The Tokmak Axis is getting interesting because a secondary attack is forming west of the main attack; you can see the small salient with the blue dot just east of the “reservoir.”
Thursday, Russian sources reported the Ukrainian Army had broken through the defensive line at Robotyne.
First main trench line has been breached from Russian Telegram
"The fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on NATO armored vehicles during the offensive were able to break through to our trenches near Robotyne." pic.twitter.com/MEp72GJcSe
Reports on telegram and twitter this morning indicate that the breakthrough at Robotyne is real. There are hints that the UAF are exploiting the breach, but Ukrainian OPSEC has been very good since the offensive kicked off. If that breakthrough turns into a ‘thunder run’ and I can get good intel on it I’ll post something about it. And for all of the doomsayers out there, the UAF has 35-40 fresh, western trained and equipped brigades. So far only two of those brigades have been identified as being in action.
If this report is accurate, we can expect the Russians to fall back onto the first of their three major defensive belts.
The Ukrainian army is making small gains north and south of Bakhmut. I think this is a secondary effort designed to pin Russian forces down to defend their “prize.”
Last week the Russians launched a series of attacks in the area of Kupiansk. So far, we haven’t seen Russian progress there. My assessment is that this is a spoiling offensive designed to divert Ukrainian assets from their main effort but particularly to draw the Ukrainian forces putting pressure on Bakhmut away.
We have seen a significant change in Russian tactical behavior. In the past, when the Russians lost real estate, they regrouped in new defensive positions. Now we’re seeing any Ukrainian advance being met with an immediate counterattack. This is the same technique developed by the Russians towards the end of Wagner PMC’s involvement in Bakhmut. There is nothing wrong with the tactic, per se. It becomes problematic when fortifications intended to be abandoned are the objective, and your reserve force is limited. It becomes particularly problematic when the counterattacks aren’t successful.
Ukrainian forces in recent days repelled a large counterattack of Russian forces north east of Robotyne at least 3 tanks and several armoured vehicles were destroyed or abandoned in the failed assault. pic.twitter.com/k5kwd6JPCK
In the case of Robotyne, the Russians did attempt a counterattack to retake outlying fortifications. The attack was well located, on the shoulder of the Ukrainian penetration, but its execution was poor, and it failed.
This goes back to the CNN story. There is evidence that the Russian Army is improving in some things, like drone operations. This counterattack was well-timed and technically correct. That’s because the skills needed for both of those things can be taught in a classroom. Where we do not see learning, and where I’d contend learning is not possible for the Russian Army in the current environment, is tactical proficiency on the battlefield. The attrition of Russian officers and lack of time out of the line for Russian units to train prevents the lessons learned from the last 16 months of warfare from being disseminated and adapted as standard procedures.
The main obstacle slowing the Ukrainians is the hundreds of thousands of artillery-delivered mines that turn any breakthrough into a hard slog through a minefield.
The lack of AAR and lessons-learned dissemination is going to be the death of the RuAF. Literally. I don’t know how many of you reading this were combat arms MOS’s, but after nearly every engagement, whether actual combat or just training, there are after action reviews and lessons-learned sessions. Those sessions helped each soldier in a unit to learn from what just happened, not just those directly involved. The complete lack of that type of thing in the Russian military will be the direct cause of a large number of casualties.
New Weapons
Sweden Okays Transfer of SAAB JAS 39 Gripen Fighters To Ukraine
Sweden is transferring an undeclared number of JAS 39 Gripen multi-role fighters to the Ukrainian Air Force. No specific date for the transfer or pilot training has been announced. When combined with the F-16s that are scheduled to enter service this autumn, the ability of the Russian Air Force to operate in the theater of operations will be nearly zero due to superior Ukrainian aircraft and an integrated air defense system.
Sweden 🇸🇪 announced that it will allow Ukrainian 🇺🇦 Pilots to start test flying Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen Fighter Jets as part of its 12th Military Aid Package (Reuters)
The Saab Jas 39 Gripen are among the best multirole Fighter Jets in the world and are suitable for Ukraine pic.twitter.com/xuflrLPVAD
The Saab Gripen is a relatively fast (Mach 2), highly maneuverable multi-role fighter. It has the ability to take off from very short, (1900 feet) unimproved runways. It is also the least expensive 4th gen fighter in terms of cost per flight hour, about $4600. For comparison, the next closest is the F-16 block C/D at around $7000 per flight hour. Those numbers include fuel used.
Sweden to Open Repair Depot to Support Ukraine
Sweden has agreed to send 60 soldiers to a logistics center in one of Ukraine's neighboring countries. They will assist in the repair and maintenance of Swedish weapons provided to Ukraine such as the CV90, Leopard 2 (Stridsvagn 122), Archer and RBS-70.https://t.co/iKFMPgoZ9W
One of the key features of Operation Fortitude, the fake invasion of France at Pas de Calais that kept the German operational reserve frozen until the Normandy lodgement was well established, was several thousand canvas and inflatable decoys representing trucks, tanks, artillery, etc. We know the Ukrainians have used home-grown decoys to great effect (Putin’s War, Week 54. More NordStream Melodrama, Russia Shows Diplomatic Weakness, and the Bakhmut Flipflop).
Now some observers have noticed decoys of Russian air defense systems in transit in what looks like the American southwest.
⚡️High-quality mock-ups of 🇷🇺Russian S-300/S-400 anti-aircraft missile launchers have reportedly been spotted in the 🇺🇸US. pic.twitter.com/FeLERkxNXG
— 🇺🇦Ukrainian Front (@front_ukrainian) June 18, 2023
I’d point out that both Fort Irwin (if they haven’t changed the name of it yet), CA, and Nellis AFB, NV, are sites of very sophisticated training f, facilities. To me, it seems more likely that the decoys are headed to one of those bases for use in an exercise. But who knows? I can’t imagine that the company producing these decoys hasn’t managed to get a contract to make them for Ukraine, though I’d hope we’d ship them by aircraft instead of open train cars.
T-55 in Action
About three months ago, I posted on a shipment of T-55 tanks headed for Ukraine, Putin’s War, Week 56. Putin Indicted for War Crimes, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time. The T-55 is a late World War II design that entered service in 1948. The report of them being sent to Ukraine was met with guffaws by the “Russia isn’t trying yet” crowd. Other people, paid think tank analysts who should know better, claimed that they were going to be used as self-propelled artillery (lolgf). They have now been seen in action.
Here a T-55 was packed with explosives, the laterals locked into position, and it was sent toward Ukrainian lines. The tank hits a mine at 0:10. Then it is hit by an RPG at 1:02…watch for the rocket launch towards the right of the frame, and you can see the projectile in flight. In retrospect, the Ukrainians should’ve left well enough alone. My guess is that the blast caused by the RPG probably killed or wounded most of the people in the trench in front. That white wall you see moving out at 1:03 is air compressed to the point of luminosity, followed by a vacuum that will collapse hollow organs, leaving you stone dead without a mark on you.
#Ukraine The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.
The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG shot, causing a huge explosion. pic.twitter.com/sXXI57wV7v
We don’t know if this is a new use for an elderly tank or an improvisation by soldiers who said, “No f***ing way am I crawling into that,” as it is the only one we’ve seen so far.
This isn’t the first time a decrepit T-55 has been packed with explosives and driven into enemy positions. One of the factions in Syria has done it several times. They actually managed to destroy the target at least once tho. . .
The MaxxPro is Tough
Last week I commented that the engineering devoted to crew survivability was paying huge dividends. Even when vehicles were damaged, we didn’t see the catastrophic fire-and-explosion combination that has become the trademark of Russian armored vehicles. The following sequence is an excellent example of that.
Early in the offensive, the Rusbots made a big deal of this video. In it, a T-72 is pushing a disabled MaxxPro MRAP. The T-72 is hit by a Russian Lancet (0:05). You can see the explosive reactive armor (ERA) activate before the explosion. The tank isn’t damaged. While the twit posting the video says the tank is trying to avoid being hit, the Lancet strike is at the very beginning. It looks like the MaxxPro gets stuck, and then bad stuff happens as the T-72 continues to push.
Footage claimed to be from near the “Velyka Novosilka” Frontline in the Southwestern Donetsk Region showing a Ukrainian T-72B3 Tank appearing to Crush a International M1224 MaxxPro MRAP as its trying to prevent being Hit by a Russian “Lancet” Drone Strike. pic.twitter.com/KUGj9VmrgY
The incident took place behind Ukrainian lines, so neither vehicle was lost to the Russians, and now we have on-site video of the remains.
Footage has been released by Ukrainian Soldiers which shows a New Angle of previously seen Russian Drone Footage from the “Velyka Novosilka” Frontline, which showed a Ukrainian T-72B3 Tank appearing to “Panic” while attempting to not be Struck by “Lancet” Attack Drones resulting… pic.twitter.com/MHqqqneHoe
The T-72 is repairable, and, what’s more, the MaxxPro looks pretty good, too. This is the type of equipment that builds confidence in soldiers and lets them take more risks knowing there is an excellent chance that even if things go pear-shaped, they will still walk away from it.
The General Staff reports about the downing of another Ka-52 attack helicopter. This is already the fourth reportedly destroyed Ka-52 in three days. pic.twitter.com/E924Sb9frA
This is the standard action-counteraction cycle that characterizes military operations. Something works really well; the enemy develops a counter, in this case, moving anti-aircraft assets up closer to maneuver units, and then what you were doing doesn’t work all that well.
It was only a matter of time before the UAF started shooting down RU helos. Rotary wing aircraft don’t last long in a contested environment. Unlike the Ukrainians, the Russians don’t have a SEAD/DEAD capability.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Ukrainian Commandos Clear a Strongpoint
In this video, Ukrainian Marine commandos clear a strongpoint behind Russian lines in Zaporishzhia. Note how deep the trenches are, unlike the latrine slit trenches we’ve become accustomed to seeing, and the presence of blast-proof dugouts in the trench.
Great movement and fire control techniques are exhibited, but If you are squeamish, you might want to avoid this video.
Russian milblogger Rybar claims that some of the Russians are unarmed because their weapons are stored in a central location in the strongpoint. That seems truthful if only because it is a very stupid way of doing business that no one would make up.
A curious Rybar post on the trench clearing video by the Ukrainian 73rd Maritime Special Operations Center.
They write about a, to me, strange practice where Russian soldiers don't carry their weapons on them, but instead they are stored in a central location in the position. pic.twitter.com/nwM3luXaFr
Russian authorities have declared a curfew in parts of Zaporizhzhia where one axis of the Ukrainian offensive is directed. You’ll recall that the Russians did this in Kharkiv and Kherson shortly before executing a major withdrawal.
Russian channel Dva Mayora says that the curfew is being introduced from today by the Russian nazi regime in the city of Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Vasylivka is a major hub, and Piatykhatky and other settlements liberated by the AFU recently lead to this city:
A Ukrainian strike, believed to be by a Stormshadow cruise missile, hit a grouping of ammunition storage areas in Rykove, Kherson Oblast. The explosions continued for six hours, and satellite imagery showed the foundations of the buildings in the compounds had been erased.
The aftermath of the destruction of Russian ammo dumps in temporarily occupied Rykove, Kherson Oblast. Ukrainian defenders attacked Russian ammo dumps in Lazurne, Skadovsk and Rykove early this morning pic.twitter.com/03FaIl0mr0
This morning, there was a strike on a fairly large Russian ammunition depot in Rykove, Kherson region. Distance to the front ~110 km. Rykovo is located on the railroad between Crimea and Melitopil and is therefore an important logistical hub for Russians.https://t.co/JNmxvr7wJEpic.twitter.com/MmYBDscUzX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 18, 2023
I saw this when it first happened, and went to look for more information. The strike was both precise and spectacular. There is a small tank farm maybe 500m from the buildings that went up and it was untouched.
Heavy damage from a strike in Russian-occupied Rykove (Kherson Oblast) is visible in new satellite imagery.
Big queues at the Perekop checkpoint on the border of Crimea and Kherson oblast after the missile strike on the Chonhar bridge. The waiting time is one and a half hours. pic.twitter.com/LQYzCsJgGq
A strike on the Chonhar bridge may become a blow to Russian logistics in southern Ukraine
The damage to the Chonhar bridge may create logistical challenges for Russia & help the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast.https://t.co/0cVjnNMIKG
Another Stormshadow air-launched cruise missile strike.
Sinking at Sevastopol?
A floating dock and a pilot boat tied up there for repairs sank in Sevastopol on Tuesday. No word on the cause, but it is just as likely an industrial mishap as Ukrainian action.
Over the weekend, the Russian-appointed deputy gauleiter of Zaporizhzia was critically injured by a car bomb.
Russian-regime occupational authorities experienced another blow.
Deputy Prime Minister of the Zaporizhzia region, Vladimir Epifanov, has been targeted by car bomb in Russian-occupied Simferopol, Crimea. He, his secretary and a body guard got hospitalized with severe burns.… pic.twitter.com/Tcf2JZJTXq
If the reports of the breach of the initial fortification line at Robotyne are accurate, and as Russian sources report them, we can expect the situation is actually worse than they are saying, that line becomes untenable. The focus will now become breaching that first defensive belt. The Ukrainians, so far, have operated mostly with light infantry with some armor support. Only two of the brigades anticipated to be the main striking force for the offensive have been identified, but the first main line of fortifications is where we might see them in action.
The Ukrainians seem to have countered the threat of Russian helicopter gunships. Their campaign of destruction against Russian ammunition supply points will probably reduce the number of artillery-delivered mines available. Those two things indicate that the tempo may increase in the next couple of weeks.
While I’m sure the Ukrainians have a time-phased scheme of maneuver, it would be shocking if any combat arms officer expected that to fall into place. The Russians have put up tenacious resistance. They have used minefields to stop penetrations. And every successful attack will be met by a fierce counterattack.
At this point, I think the advantage and momentum are clearly with Ukraine so long as they focus on their mission and don’t get stampeded by the expectations of the media.
