I was having a conversation with AuntiE today about the possibility of a hot war between NATO and Russia earlier today. She shared an article from Zero Hedge about statements from the current NATO naval chief, Nederlander Rob Bauer. Bauer seems to think there will be a shooting war within the next 20 years.
I tend to disagree.
The ‘three day Special Military Operation’ has put to rest the myth of Russian strength. We are now going on 100 weeks of that particular adventurism. In that 100 weeks, Russia has had somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000 casualties, lost nearly 75% of its pre-invasion tank force, had a near-successful mutiny and is now forced to buy arms and ammunition from Iran and North Korea.
Am I saying Putin, and be crystal clear that he’s the one and only one calling the shots, wouldn’t start something with a NATO country? No, there’s always a possibility, however slight, that he’d make that miscalculation. What I am saying is that even if he did, he’d lose. Badly. And relatively quickly. Hell, the Texas of Europe, Poland, could be in Moscow in a month.
A poorly armed and equipped Ukraine has forced Russian forces back to a relatively narrow strip along the Black and Azov sea coasts. Right now, during the bezdorizhzhia, or mud season, the lines are mostly static. I expect that to change some once everything freezes hard enough for maneuver warfare to begin again in earnest.
What does have me concerned is the CCP. Chairman Xi has made it as clear as he can that annexing Formosa is his top priority. The recent election there, the anti-CCP party won handily, won’t help. It is widely considered that Xi took the results personally. I feel the need to remind everyone that the US is bound by legislation to aid Taiwan in the event of a CCP attack.
The PLARF (People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces) have missiles that can hit any of the US bases in the Pacific ocean. That renders Guam, Kwajalein, Diego Garcia and the bases in Korea and Japan all but useless for logistical purposes.
The distances in the Pacific are immense. Los Angeles and Hawaii are 2,231 nautical miles apart. Hawaii to Japan is 3,800 nautical miles. The distance between Los Angeles and Tokyo by cargo ship is 5,081 Nautical Miles. For reference, the distance between Halifax and Southampton England, the most common WWII convoy route, is 2,624 nautical miles. This creates a logistical nightmare.
I think the only thing holding Xi back at the moment is a major corruption scandal in the PLA. I wrote a little about that scandal in the View a couple of weeks back. It certainly isn’t anything POTATUS has done or is doing. Sooner or later, he’ll get his ducks in a row and go for Formosa.
Iran and its proxies across the Sahel are flexing. While I’m sure that Israel can take care of both Hamas and Hezbollah by itself, I am concerned about a wider regional war. Iran launched attacks in Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan and Pakistan last week. Pakistan retaliated with a limited strike a few days later, but the tensions are still very high between the two.
The Houthi are continuing their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandab strait and now in the Gulf of Aden. One of the latest strikes was against the US owned and flagged MV Ocean Jazz. The 10662 DWT heavy lift vessel was previously chartered by the US Navy’s Military Sealift Command.
The only bright spot about the current issue with the Houthi is the AEGIS system is getting its first real-world testing. The eggheads are using the data collected from each intercept to improve the system. All those improvements are uploaded across the fleet and to the AEGIS ashore batteries. That little fact may come to be useful if the CCP decides it’s gonna get froggy with the Taiwanese.
Of the three major hot-spots, and yes there are others, I think Iran and the Middle East are the most likely to expand. Let’s be honest, the Ayatollahs version of Islam is little better than a death cult. They aren’t what I’d call rational actors and cannot be expected to do the things that a traditional geopolitical actor would do.
That said, the one that keeps me up nights is China. Between the distances involved, the near-peer abilities of China and what Vizzini said, it will quickly become a bloody and expensive war.