Featured Image: West Canada Creek near Nobleboro NY. West Canada creek is one of the premier trout streams in the southern Adirondack region.
As the Russian war of aggression 3 day Special Military Operation in Ukraine enters its 99th week, the Russian Air Force suffered the loss of two aircraft yesterday. A Beriev A-50 “Mainstay” AEW&C plane -think AWACS- and an Illushin IL-22 “Coot” ISR/airborne command and control plane were hit over the sea of Azov. The Mainstay was shot down, while the heavily damaged Coot managed to make a landing at a nearby airfield.
This is a costly loss for the Russians, as there were only 8 of the A-50 and 11 of the IL-22m air-frames ever built. It is believed that Lt. General Oleg Pchela, commander of the long-range aviation of the Russian Air Force, was on board the A-50 aircraft destroyed by Ukraine.
I’m seeing three theories being bandied about regarding the shoot-downs. First is it was a Russian ‘friendly fire’ incident. I personally find that hard to swallow as we are talking about two C&C birds that are both linked into the Russian ADA net.
The second theory floating around is some sort of SAM trap executed by Ukraine. While this is possible, sources I trust say the interception by Ukraine has would have been at or near the max range of the Patriot PAC2 missile and outside the range of any of the other ADA missiles Ukraine has access to.
The third theory, and the one I think most plausible, involves an air-to-air kill with UA SU-27s or MiG 29s armed with AIM 120 AMRAAM missiles. The damage to the tail section of the COOT looks like the damage I’d expect from that particular warhead vice the PAC2 warhead. Anyway, FAFO
The IRGC took direct credit for a complex missile and drone attack on targets in Iraqi Kurdistan and Northern Syria. The IRGC said it was targeting the “headquarters of spies” and “anti-Iranian terrorist gatherings in parts of the region” with ballistic missiles. The sites struck were close to US locations in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. No US facilities were struck and there weren’t any US casualties, but the strikes were called ‘imprecise and reckless’ by one US official.
I really wish someone other than POTATUS or the Prostate kid was in charge. This kind of escalation really needs to be answered, as in Operation Praying Mantis answered. Appeasement never, ever works.
As Admiral Painter said in Red October “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”
**** As I was getting ready to publish this piece, some new information crossed the transom. The IRGC struck Baluch separatist bases in Pakistan. As I’m sure you know, the Pakistanis have fucking nukes, several dozen of them. What Iran is thinking, I don’t know.
SCOTUS is set to hear oral arguments in Loper Bright v Raimundo and Relentless v Department of Commerce. At issue is a regulatory ruling forcing commercial fishermen to pay the salaries of compliance observers on their boats. The payment requirement is based on an interpretation of federal law by the National Marine Fisheries Service. These two cases are the biggest of the January term.
These cases stem from a 1984 case called Chevron v National Resources Defense Council, Inc. The ruling in that case created what is known as the Chevron deference. Chevron deference consists of a two-part test that is deferential to government agencies: first, whether Congress has spoken directly to the precise issue at question, and second, “whether the agency’s answer is based on a permissible construction of the statute.”
While I am not a lawyer, it’s my opinion that Chevron was badly decided. The Chevron deference is what created the modern regulatory state. It’s way past time to overturn Chevron and rein in the regulatory state in all its forms. This may be the Court that does just that. Here’s hoping. . .
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