An IAF Boeing 707 refueling plane and several F-35 and F-15 fighter jets carry out a drill just off the coast of Israel, August 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
On Saturday, Israel hit multiple targets in Iran. These strikes were in retaliation for an Iranian attack at the beginning of October that saw more than 400 ballistic and cruise missiles launched from Iran. The Israeli Iron Dome and its associated systems like David’s Sling, and Iron Beam intercepted most of the incoming. The only death associated with the Iranian attack was an Arab. He was hit by rocket debris in Jericho. (The video will not embed, if you want to see it click HERE)
So, what do we know about the Israeli strikes?
A fair bit actually. We know it was an airstrike not a missile attack. we know a combination of F-15 Ra’am (Thunder), F-16 Sufa (Storm) and F-35 Adir (Mighty One) attack aircraft participated in the strike supported by the entire IAF refueling fleet.
We know the rough route the IAF took on the strikes, but I will not publish it here. Needless to say, the route overflew Syria and Iraq before crossing into Iranian Airspace. The furthest reported target was some 800km inside Iran and more than 2000km from Israeli airspace.
What did the strikes hit?
Here’s where we run into our first check. According to the IDF, the strike targeted several dozen sites, however, there is limited reliable intel about those sites. That said, we do know several locations that were hit.
Of note is the Iranian solid fuel rocket manufactory near Parchin, about 30km east of Tehran. There has been some medium resolution commercial satellite imaging released. That imaging shows moderate to severe damage to 4-6 buildings in that particular complex. Early reports indicate that the mixing sheds and forming building were leveled. There is also sat imaging of Khojir, a military base and rocket facility 12km south of Tehran shows similar damage.
There is reported damage, though no imagery, to rocket facilities in the city of Sharud. Those facilities are for the development and testing of missiles. I have also seen reporting that the strikes targeted the facility that produces Shahed drones, but again I have seen no imagery one way or the other.
What else got hit?
Radars and SAM sites. A lot of them. There is evidence that most if not all of Iran’s Russian-built S-300 and S-400 ADA systems including radars and launchers were destroyed. There is also evidence that a long distance 3D tracking radar array in western Iran was destroyed.
I’m going to digress here for a minute or two. The longstanding belief amongst the mid-and-half wits at State and the higher civilian levels of Defense is (I should say was after what Israel just did, but I’m a realist and know that not one single individual will correct their thinking) that the Iranian air defense net was too good and too dense for air operations. The Israeli SEAD/DEAD (Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses) should put that particular theory to rest. Permanently.
How did Israel do it?
We’re entering into the realm of speculation here, but I’m 80% sure I have at least the broad strokes correct. Before I get into the how they did it, I’m going to go into the why they were able to do it for a second. The Israelis have the best intelligence agency in the world. When I say they have agents and operatives at very high levels in all but a few of their adversaries organizations I am not kidding. The Mossad knew exactly where every ADA radar and SAM site was located, how they were oriented and who was running them long before this strike happened. They also knew what buildings housed what particular rocket operation they wanted to target. In other words, they had the inside scoop on everything.
As to the operational concept, that’s not all that hard to figure out. A combination of F-35s and F-16s did the SEAD/DEAD. The F-16s ran ‘wild weasel’ mission profiles while the F-35s killed the radars as soon as they powered up. The F-15s, with their greater speed, range and payload hit everything else once the ADA was taken out.
What did this strike accomplish?
If the damage I’ve seen is as bad as it looks and the strikes hit the facilities I think have been hit, Iran will not be able to produce any new rockets or ballistic missiles for at least a year, if not longer. If the reports about the Shahed factory are true, then there will be no more of those for at least 6 months.
More pressing for the Regime in Tehran, the interior of the country is wide open for air attack. The S-300 and S-400 batteries and radars will need to be replaced, and at the moment, the supplier, Russia, has some small issues of its own to deal with. Whether or not Russia is willing or even able to replace the Iranian systems is up in the air.
Am Yisrael Chai