After a few years of relative peace, civil war has erupted in Syria again. Turkish-backed rebel groups seem to have started attacking Assad regime security forces and the Syria Arab Army – a Syrian regime-backed Arab militia – Thursday. The offensive seems to have come as a surprise and has moved very rapidly.
As of this writing – 1400 EDT 30 November – the rebels have managed to take Idlib, Aleppo and several other smaller towns in the northwestern part of the country. They have moved south and east with surprising rapidity and are reported to be on the outskirts of Hamah in the northwest, Homs in the central part of the country and Daraa in the south.
There are also reports of an attempted coup in Damascus. Details there are a bit sketchy, with little reliable intel making its way out, but here’s what I’ve seen: the Republican Guards seem to have initiated the coup attempt and are directly engaged with the SAA and other regime troops in and around Damascus.
Bashar al Assad is in Russia on a pre-planned trip to beg Putin for more. Speaking of the Russians, they have a few bases in Syria. The two most important are the airbase at Latakia and the Navy facility at Tartus. Once the rebels get within ~30km of either of those bases, the Russians will be forced to evacuate.
Why 30km? That’s the range of the 122mm rockets the rebels have captured from regime forces. They have also captured more than a dozen tanks, several artillery pieces, a bunch of APCs and tons of small arms and ammo.
And why will the Russians be forced to evacuate? Because the Rebels remember the way they indiscriminately bombed Idlib and Aleppo.
I have to admit I’m more than a bit ambivalent about this war, at least in regards to who wins. There are really no good options on the table. The rebel groups, with the possible exception of the Kurdish YPG/J in the northeast, are all Islamist.
The largest of the groups, Hayat tahrir al sham, is an offshoot of al Qaida, (or was, there’s evidence that the current Emir, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, has disavowed affiliation with al Qaida’s leadership), is the one making the biggest gains.
We all know about Assad’s record, so I feel disinclined to rehash it here.
That said, this is overall a good thing for the world at large. Russia loses influence in the region, Iran loses a proxy state and a transshipment point for illicit arms and Assad loses his head. My concern is what rebel group comes out on top, as they will shape the region for decades to come.