It’s week 142 (two years, eight months and three weeks) of Putin’s 3 days to Kiev invasion of Ukraine. For all of the 700,000 casualties*, 3558 tanks, 1744 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 4986 Armored Fighting Vehicles, ~1000 APCs/Engineering Vehicles/Command Post Vehicles, 1282 Artillery pieces, 477 MLRS, and sundry Hundreds of other vehicles and equipment, the Russians only control about 5% of Ukraine. Hell, they don’t even control all of the Oblasts they ‘annexed’ last year, in fact they control less of Kherson Oblast than they did when the sham referendum was held.
It’s gotten so bad for Putin the Russian army is using North Korean troops as cannon fodder in Kursk Oblast to try to stem a Ukrainian incursion into that part of Russia. Around two brigades of North Korean troops were sent to far eastern Russia for training and equipping about 6 weeks ago. The first Nork casualties were reported last week, and several have reportedly defected to Ukraine.
I feel I should mention that if, and as of right now it’s a big IF, any of these NK troops get back to NK, they are headed directly to a camp for the rest of their miserable lives. Why? because they’ve seen how the rest of the world lives. The information control in North Korea is complete. If the State does not want you to know something, you do not know it. The 10,000 or so Norks in Russia however. . . What’s the saying about genies and bottles?
The Norks have also sent around 100 self-propelled artillery pieces for the Russians to use. The issue with the Nork arty is that it’s a different caliber, 170mm, than anything the Russian tubes use. It also takes forever and ten minutes to emplace, aim, fire, and unemplace. In other words, it is highly susceptible to counter-battery fire and drone strikes. In other, simpler words, nearly useless in the current Ukraine battlefield.
Speaking of Kursk Oblast, the UAF have taken several thousand square kilometers of territory, including the Gazprom natural gas pumping facilities at Sudzha. The Russians and their NK allies have tried very hard to take that territory back in the past few days/week. While they have managed to regain some land, the majority of the attacks have been defeated. A total of 500 vehicles and several thousand men were lost on 3 consecutive days in meat wave attacks.
Frankly, I’m still of my old Cold War mindset that the only good Russian is a dead Russian, and wish the Ukrainians all the luck in the world. I am also of the mindset that as long as there are no US boots on the ground there, we should be helping them as much as possible. This is an existential threat to a country we are treaty-bound to aid in the case of an invasion. I realize that some of you hold differing ideas about the war in Ukraine, and that’s your prerogative. We can disagree and still be friends.
*The 700,000 casualty number is on the low side of the estimated range. I have seen numbers as high as 1.2 mm and as low as 650,000. It includes what the Russians call gruz 200 (cargo 200 or deceased soldiers), severely wounded and sick troops who are unable to return to the front. Since WWII, the accepted ratio of KIA to WIA is about 1-4. The appalling lack of battlefield triage and care on the Russian side puts that number closer to 2-3. The US had a ratio of about 1-10.7 during the GWOT for reference. This casualty rate has, of late, exceeded the replacement rate, that is there are more Russian casualties occuring in Ukraine than births across Russia. That is a demographic disaster in the making.
Israel is still absolutely curbstomping both Hamas and Hezbollah. Every time either appoints new leadership, Israel plays a game of Whack- Fuck with them. Of late, the IDF has been taking out Hezb figure who were involved in the Beirut Barracks bombing. Good on them. . .
Since my last piece about that particular shit sandwich, we’ve found out that one of the targets Israel hit in Iran was a clandestine nuclear weapons facility. It seems the facility in question was some sort of assembly area and it is now all but completely destroyed.
We also found out that the Israelis managed to take out all of Iran’s relatively modern air defense systems. I say relatively, because the bulk of the Iranian ADA was Russian built S-300 system. Prior to the Israeli/Hamas conflict, Iran has four of those systems, now, well, they have exactly zero.
The CCP has been flexing a bit in the Pacific. In the weeks leading up to the US elections, they repeatedly violated the Taiwanese ADIZ and circled the island with their navy and coast guard. Meanwhile, the US just approved $567m in new military aid for the Taiwanese.
They also attacked a Philippine naval vessel trying to resupply the Philippine ship/base at Second Thomas shoal. Second Thomas is part of the Spratly chain and inside of the Philippines exclusive economic zone. The Chinese claim it as theirs based on the name of the body of water, the South China Sea, and not much more. I’m sure most of you have seen the 9 dash map.
The entire claim is ridiculous. Under international law, coastal countries have sovereign control out to 12 miles and an exclusive economic zone of up to 200 miles. Under Maritime law, and World Court rulings, none of China’s territorial claims are valid. Sooner or later it’s going to wind up in a shooting match. I just hope we’re ready.
On the lighter side, the famous deer in Nara park in Japan are in the news. The deer, much accustomed to people, are starting to get aggressive with tourists. The park, a 502-hectare sanctuary designated as a national treasure, is home to around 1,400 free-roaming deer, and some of the city’s most famous landmarks, including Todaiji Temple. Last year there were 5 documented injuries caused by the deer, this year there have already been 35.
“We do not think the deer are becoming more aggressive towards people, but there has been an increase in incidents,” said Yumiko O’Donnell, of the Nara Prefectural Government’s Tourism Bureau. “More tourists are coming back to Nara Park after the pandemic. So it is possible that after a relatively quiet time, the deer have been surprised to see many more people”. Nature, red in tooth and claw. Even in the Land of the Rising Sun.
This next, and last, item is a bit um, gross. While trying to get to the bottom of a completely unrelated topic your editor ran into an odd set of facts. One I really wish I hadn’t, but one that explains a lot. Consanguinity, that is inbreeding or cousin marriage is far more common across the Ummah, or Muslim world than it is in any other region. By a lot.
Pakistan leads the way with 61% of marriages being between first cousins. Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, the Sudans and Afghanistan are all at 50%. Mauritania, Iraq, Iran and Yemen are all in the 40% range, with most of the remainder in the 25-39% range. The numbers fall in the far eastern Muslim states like Indonesia where they have a consanguinity rate of less than 15% and Malaysia with less than 5%.
For reference, America’s hat, Canada, has a 1.5% consanguinity rate, while the US has a less than 0.1% rate.
But what does it mean? Consanguinity is linked to a whole host of issues. Children of consanguineous marriages are twice as likely to have genetic disorders than children of non-related couples. These disorders include thalassaemias (a blood disorder), cystic fibrosis, Down’s syndrome, and infantile cerebral palsy. Consanguineous births are also at a higher rate of congenital malformations, such as congenital heart diseases, renal diseases, and rare blood disorders.
Plus the eeeewwwww factor.