Destroyed Russian T-72 destroyed near Hostomel Ukraine.
Today marks the third anniversary of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. In that time Russia has managed to lose somewhere north of 800,000 casualties with around 200,000 of those being fatalities. Keep in mind those numbers are SWAG – that is, scientific wild ass guesses. I have lower confidence in the total casualty numbers than I do the fatalities. That said, I think both are low.
Russia has also lost some 3773 tanks of all types, 1933 armored Fighting vehicles – think M113 and Stryker but Russian – of all types, 5531 Infantry fighting vehicles – think Bradley – of all types, 1817 artillery pieces of all types including rocket artillery, 287 manned aircraft of all types and 28 vessels of all types including several subs and the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, the Moskva. I feel the need to point out that the Russian Naval losses come from a country – Ukraine – without a Navy.
What has Russia gained from this invasion? Not a lot. And they have lost a bunch.
The Russians currently control about 15% of Ukraine. That’s down significantly from what they held in September of ’22, 25-30% and only marginally – 5-7% –more than what they held prior to the invasion.
Keep in mind, outside of a few cities close to the russian border in Donetsk and Luhansk, most of the cities, towns and villages in the Russian controlled areas are completely demolished. Everything, and I mean everything, will have to be rebuilt in those areas.
The Russian population, which was already shrinking and in an inverse distribution scale, is shrinking even faster now. Between the war casualties, those fleeing Russia to avoid conscription, and the fact there are more women than men – 60%/40% – spells trouble for Russia.
The Russian economy is on the brink. The majority of Russia’s external income comes from petroleum production. With the current sanctions regime, very few countries will buy Russian oil, and those only at a steep discount.
I am well aware that some of you have differing opinions on this war, but the simple fact is the 24 February 2022 invasion was unprovoked. Come to think of it, the initial Russian invasions in the Donbas and Crimean Peninsula were unprovoked as well.
Putin has made clear that he wants to reconstitute the USSR. He said it in public speeches multiple times and ‘wrote’ a position piece about it that was published by the Kremlin.
The Kremlin talking point about no eastward expansion of NATO is just that: a talking point. At no time did anyone with the authority to make such a commitment actually make it. Even Gorbachev admits there was no commitment made.
And before anyone trots out the Mexico/Cuba/Canada analogy, that is a false equivalence. The US has not threatened, invaded, terror bombed, annexed territory from or otherwise harmed any of our neighbors the way Russia has. Just ask Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya and Ukraine.
So, what’s next? I don’t know for sure. Any peace plan that doesn’t include Ukrainian leadership is doomed from the start. Likewise, any plan that doesn’t include security guarantees for Ukraine is doomed, and dooms Ukraine to more war in a few years.
As much as I like and admire the President, I think he’s going about the peace deal the wrong way. He forgets that the Ukrainians have a voice in this process. And calling the democratically elected President of a sovereign nation a dictator is a bit too much even from him. One with a higher approval rating than Trump.
Then there’s the fact that the Ukranian Constitution forbids elections during a state of emergency. That state of emergency was voted on by the Verkhovna Rada and has been reaffirmed several times.
Do I think I understand where he’s coming from? Yes, but the vitriol is misapplied to Zelenskyy. He was not the cause of the impeachment, that was chow thief Vindman.
All that said, there needs to be a peace plan. The question is whether Trump is the man to get it done or will he let his ego get in the way?