Random News and Notes 17 November

RNN is going to take a slightly different form today. Instead of a variety of news items from across the spectrum, we will be concentrating on the situation in the southern Caribbean and the northern parts of South America.

The Department of War announced the name of the on-going drug boat interdiction operation: Southern Spear. As part of that operation, Navy assets took out another drug smuggling boat on Saturday.

. . . transiting along a known narco-trafficking route, and carrying narcotics. Three male narco-terrorists aboard the vessel were killed. The vessel was trafficking narcotics in the Eastern Pacific and was struck in international waters.

I am typically not a fan of the sanitized lawyer-speak the DOD err W uses when describing operations. This was not a kinetic strike. Well, it is, things were moving and things were struck, but you know what I mean. They blew up a boat allegedly carrying drugs and killed 3 dudes doing it.

Should we be blowing up random boats just because they are where they are? I need some convincing on that point, at least for the pangas and other small open type boats. Anyone cruising around those areas in a semi-submersible is fair game.

I am not convinced these strikes are completely above board in a legal sense. It is unclear where the authority for the strikes comes from. Is it the War Powers act? Is it some other thing? While the Trump Admin has declared the cartels foreign terror orgs, I am not convinced that is enough. We’ll see I suppose although I haven’t seen a court case questioning whether he and the Admin have the authority for the kinetic strikes.

Mexico is sliding towards failed state status. There have been massive riots in Mexico City over the past 48 hours. Why? Because the administration of the current President, Claudia Sheinbaum refuses to do anything about the cartels. Probably because she is owned by at least one of them.

I have seen it positied on line that the only thing keeping the lid on the political violence in Mexico was the open border. Now, the border is closed and the violence is ramping up.

Now onto the elephant in the room – or Southern Cone as it were – Venezuela. I am going to preface everything I say here with this: I am not anyone’s idea of an area expert for South America. I did everything I possibly could to avoid it while in the Army – up to and including getting out. While I do follow the general contours of what is going on and who is pissed off at whom more or less, I do not know any more than that.

Over the past month or so, there has been a really big buildup of US Naval assets in the Southern Caribbean. As of today there is the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group – the Iwo, the San Antonio and the Ft. Lauderdale along with the 22 MEU – the USS Gerald R Ford Carrier Strike Group – The Ford, the Burke destroyers the Churchill, Bainbridge and Mahan along with an unidentified SSN – the independent Burke class DDGs Gravely, Stockdale, Dunham and Sampson, and the Tico class cruisers Gettysburg and Lake Erie. There are reports that the USS Newport News, a Los Angeles class attack sub that has been modified for SeAL use, is in the area. These ships represent about 14% of the US Navy’s strike capability.

One of the questions posed by this build up is why this big? I’d bet the foreign policy preferences – no Maduro, less drug smuggling – of the Trump admin could have been carried out by a much smaller force. That said, the mere appearance of a US carrier strike group on the horizon has been known to change minds.

And let’s be honest, Venezuela isn’t much of a threat militarily. A while back their Navy went up against a cruise ship and lost. Back in 2020, a VZ Navy patrol boat, the Naiguatá, tried to order the German cruise ship RCGS Resolute into a Venezuelan port. The orders, which occurred in international waters, were illegal and rightfully ignored. The Naiguatá rammed the cruise ship and sank.

So, what is going to happen? As I see it there are three options:

Option one: Trump launches a major operation against Maduro, his regime and the Cartels operating in Venezuela. Lots of Venezuelans and a couple of Americans die. Maduro and his henchmen get hunted down and killed. One of the opposition leaders, either Maria Corina Machado or Juan Gaido takes over as political leader of Venezuela.

Option two: The fleet quietly steams away. Trump looks like a fool and his political enemies can continue with that dumb TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) line of attack. It also damages US interests outside of the Southern Cone. That is one of the major issues with this type of show of strength, it has to be used or it looks like weakness.

Option three: Maduro begs for his life and does whatever Trump, Rubio and Hegseth want.

Of the three, the last option is the best. Nobody dies. Well, other than the poor saps on the drug boats that is. I also think it is the most likely of the three given the news out this morning that Maduro is actively looking to open talks.

Although the designation of the Cartel de los Soles as an FTO complicates things as a matter of law.

What’s next? I sure don’t know. What I do know is the kind of buildup we are seeing in the SOUTHCOM AO is unsustainable for much longer. The Ft. Lauderdale has already had to return to port for repairs. She wasn’t in port long, and is now back on station with the rest of the ARG, but the point stands.

That means anything that is going to happen is going to happen soon-ish. When it does, you can check back with MVAP and find out all about it. Especially if I was right. . .