It’s FriYAY! It is also Paddy’s day weekend.
In honor of the Patron Saint of Eire, St. Patrick, this week’s musical selection is my favorite version of the Fields of Athenry, the unofficial national anthem of Ireland. Happy St. Paddy’s day!
On March 13, 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared a nationwide emergency. It kicked off a wave of worldwide authoritarianism that hadn’t been seen for centuries, if ever.
Americans were subjected to unprecedented censorship, lockdowns, and mandates. Parents died alone. Funerals were unattended. Our children were forcibly masked.
Our neighbors were outed as the cruel, heartless authoritarians they always were but managed to keep hidden somehow. How else could the next three years worth of lockdowns and mask madness have happened?
Many of you will remember my daily posts about the covid stuff over at Jo’s old site. Back then I tried to cut through the fog and provide solid information about the pandemic and the response to it without resorting to sensationalism or click-bait.
Even back then I repeatedly stated the given theory – the Wuhan wet market – was unlikely and the virus probably came from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Now, nearly everyone agrees it was a lab leak and not a natural event. The German BND, Bundesnachrichtendienst or foreign intelligence service, just released a statement saying they knew it was a lab leak back in 2020, but then chancellor Angela Merkel prevented them from releasing their findings.
So, five years on what have we learned? Other than our fellow Americans can be petty little tyrants at the drop of a hat? Not a lot unfortunately it seems.
No-one responsible for the US reaction to a virus that was less dangerous to those under 50 than the seasonal flu has been held to account. Nobody involved with the gain of function research into corona viruses has been held to account.
All I can say is that this individual will not allow anything similar to happen again. My advice to those trying to turn bird flu into a ‘thing’ is to stop. The US is not going to allow you to treat us that way ever again.
It has just been announced that Ukrainian leadership has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire in the ongoing Russian invasion. The agreement was reached during talks between the US and Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The Ukrainian acceptance is dependent on Russian acceptance of the ceasefire terms.
It has been a bit more than three years since Russia invaded Ukraine unprovoked.
As part of the ceasefire agreement, the US will restart intelligence sharing and weapons shipments to Ukraine. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz announced weapons shipments would restart immediately.
It also includes a ‘minerals deal’.
Keep in mind, this ceasefire is completely dependent on the concurrence of the aggressor, Russia. Whether or not Putin will accept this deal is unclear. Based on nearly all of his past comments and writings – and those of his proxies – it is very unlikely that he will accept the terms of this ceasefire.
An F-22 Raptor performs an aerial demonstration at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Ariz., for the 2025 Heritage Flight Training and Certification Course, March 1, 2025. The Heritage Flight Training and Certification Course is an annual event where military and civilian pilots train together to fly in formations to showcase both modern and vintage military aircraft. These flights are often performed at airshows across the country to honor U.S. military aviation history and service members. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Lauren Cobin)
Just a friendly reminder that Daylight Savings Time starts at 0200 your time tonight.
Daylight savings started in 1918 as a way to conserve energy during WWI. It proved exceedingly unpopular and was rescinded after the war. Congress overrode a Wilson veto to get rid of it because of the popular dislike.
It wasn’t readopted nationally until the Uniform Time act of 1966. Beginning in 1967, the act mandated standard time within the established time zones and provided for advanced time: Clocks would be advanced one hour beginning at 2:00 a.m. on the last Sunday in April and turned back one hour at 2:00 a.m. on the last Sunday in October.
There is a move afoot to end Daylight Savings Time. With any luck, one of the bills ending DST will pass and be sent to the President for his signature.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford
Ontario Provincial premier Doug Ford – brother to former Toronto mayor and infamous crackhead Rob – has implemented a series of taxes and duties on goods bound for and coming from the US.
He announced the imposition of a 25% export tax on electrical power deliveries to 1.5 million homes in Minnesota, Michigan and New York in retaliation for U.S. tariffs. He also directed Ontario energy producers to shut down the exports entirely if President Trump moves ahead with more tariffs on April 2.
If I didn’t know better, I’d say Doug found Rob’s stash and was partaking. Let me break it down a bit.
Economically speaking, the state of New York, my home state incidentally, has a larger economy than the entire country of Canada; $2.284 trillion to $2.12 trillion as of last year.
The Province of Ontario made up some $880 billion of that total last year. That makes Ontario the #7 province in Canada GDP wise. It would land them in a similar spot in the US, nestled between Ohio at $922b and Georgia at $877b.
Sounds good right? Not so fast. If you look at per capita GDP, ~$50,000, Ontario would be the poorest state, landing just after Mississippi $53,000.
For reference, the US GDP is some $27 trillion.
What’s my point? Simple, the frost Mexicans can’t afford to enter into this trade war. Some 75% of all of Ontario’s GDP is wrapped up with the US. Meanwhile, that trade accounts for less than 7% of all US trade.
So while my electric bill might go up a bit, some poor hoser in Cornwall or York or Windsor is going to get laid off if not outright fired.
Following an embarrassing outburst, Rep Al Green (D-TX-9) was removed from the audience of the Presidents joint speech to Congress.
Well, Al had some more bad news today. He was officially censured by the House of Representatives.
The votes broke down this way:
As would be expected, the vote broke mostly along party lines. There were 10 Dems who broke ranks and voted Yea. They were:
Green himself and Shomari Figures from Alabama voted present.
That was the question Walt posed to me recently. He was specifically asking my opinion on what it would look like if the US withdrew from NATO. It would be ugly for starters and get worse from there.
Let us start with how a country can leave NATO. Article 13 of the NATO treaty lays out the process for withdrawal:
After the Treaty has been in force for twenty years, any Party may cease to be a Party one year after its notice of denunciation has been given to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each notice of denunciation.
Seems simple right? Not really. The US is the ‘depository state’ for NATO – meaning the US holds all of the relevant docments and must provide them on demand for any member state of the Treaty. There is no clear mechanism in international law to change depository countries. It is likely that the NATO treaty would have to be amended before the US could file a denunciation.
Then there is the issue of the 2024 NDAA. Language in the act prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-third Senate super-majority or an act of Congress.
In the short term – read two to four years – there would not be a whole lot of changes provided the US was not attacked by a foreign adversary. At least not that most of you would notice.
There would likely be a very slight decrease in US defense spending. I’m not talking hundreds of billions, more like hundreds of millions if that much. In fact, the loss of the forward basing may end up costing the US more.
I hear a lot of numbers bandied about regarding the cost of overseas basing of US troops. Numbers like $55 billion, which is the budget line item cost for overseas bases.
What I don’t see is the cost of basing those troops stateside. Seeing as the US does not pay any kind of rent to most of the countries that host US troops – in fact most of those countries subsidize the bases – the total dollar amount saved would be rather small in comparison. Unless the plan is to completely eliminate the approximately 64,000 troops – the current number of US service members in Europe – the savings would be negligible. You still have to pay those troops, house them, train them, equip them, maintain the vehicles and equipment and fuel everything.
International trade will slow, though not much at first. I know some of you think that would be a good thing, but it isn’t, and not just for the reasons you may think. Slowing international trade puts the status of the dollar at risk.
Defense firms and other heavy industries, the few that are left in the US that is, would start to contract because foreign contracts would start to dry up. More and more non-NATO allies would start looking elsewhere for arms and goods. Why look to the US when they can get similar results elsewhere for less money.
The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Which means the SU dollar is the denomination used for most international transactions. That fact is the primary reason you all have the standard of living you do.
If the US is not out front leading – and being part of NATO is leading – why should the rest of the world use the dollar? The BRICS nations are already talking about replacing the dollar. You – yes you reading this – will suffer if the dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency. Prices for everything will go up. Drastically. The amount you pay in taxes will explode just to cover the debt.
This one is a bit more difficult to parse. However, I can tell you that the US will become more and more isolated. It is already becoming apparent that the US is not a reliable partner for security purposes. Why would any country look to the US for anything under those circumstances?
When countries can’t turn to the US, who do they turn to?
That is a very limited set of countries: China and Russia. Although in reality, it’s just China and the Maoist CCP. Russia is little more than a gas station with nukes at this point.
The EU isn’t capable, nor is India for all of it’s 1.4 billion people. By withdrawing from NATO the US empowers those who wish to supplant the US as the dominant country in the world.
Do you want a totalitarian state being the leading superpower? I sure don’t. But that is one of the outcomes if the US leaves NATO.
Let’s say there was an attack on US interests somewhere? What happens then?
I’m going to theorize an attack by the Chinese on, say, Guam. (No Hank it isn’t going to tip over). So, who comes to our aid if the PLA/N/AF attacks Guam?
Nobody. At least nobody under the NATO umbrella. Japan might, although their constitution until recently forbid it. Australia? While I have great esteem for the individual Diggers, their military is a shell of what it used to be. The ROKs? I’d expect they’d be busy with their brethren to the north.
While the lack of allies may not affect the notional conflict in the short term, one of the parts of NATO that goes unremarked by most is the standardization of weapons systems. In a longer conflict, the inability of the US to pull from NATO stocks will cause major issues.
While major systems, like artillery pieces and tanks may be different, generally speaking the ammunition is compatible across NATO. For instance, Britain, Germany, France and the US all field different tanks – Challenger, Leopard II, LeClerc and Abrams – they all fire the same 120mm consumable case ammo.
Small arms are the same. Each NATO country fields their own rifle/grenade launcher/mortar however the ammo is the same for all of them.
As the old saw goes; amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk strategy and experts talk logistics. Without the aid of our NATO allies, the logistics chain starts to break down.
The simple reality is that the United States needs NATO almost as much as NATO needs the US. Without NATO, the US will lose its status as the preeminent political entity in the world. We will no longer be able to afford many of the things that make us great. Our military will suffer. Our economy will suffer. Your quality of life will suffer.
The US will be lucky if it is able to effectively defend its interests internationally. The potential is there for the US to become a pariah state.
It certainly will not lead as it does now. I would much rather set policy than follow someone else’s, especially in an international situation.
Two U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress long-range strategic bombers, two F-15E Strike Eagles and two Iraqi Air Force F-16IQ Fighting Falcons fly in formation during a Bomber Task Force mission over Iraq, Feb. 17, 2025. BTF missions demonstrate the U.S. military’s ability to rapidly deploy combat power anywhere in the world and integrate it with coalition and partner forces to enhance U.S. Central Command’s ability to promote security and stability in the region. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Gerald R. Willis)
