That was the question Walt posed to me recently. He was specifically asking my opinion on what it would look like if the US withdrew from NATO. It would be ugly for starters and get worse from there.
The How
Let us start with how a country can leave NATO. Article 13 of the NATO treaty lays out the process for withdrawal:
After the Treaty has been in force for twenty years, any Party may cease to be a Party one year after its notice of denunciation has been given to the Government of the United States of America, which will inform the Governments of the other Parties of the deposit of each notice of denunciation.
Seems simple right? Not really. The US is the ‘depository state’ for NATO – meaning the US holds all of the relevant docments and must provide them on demand for any member state of the Treaty. There is no clear mechanism in international law to change depository countries. It is likely that the NATO treaty would have to be amended before the US could file a denunciation.
Then there is the issue of the 2024 NDAA. Language in the act prohibits the President from unilaterally withdrawing from NATO without approval of a two-third Senate super-majority or an act of Congress.
Immediate Effects
In the short term – read two to four years – there would not be a whole lot of changes provided the US was not attacked by a foreign adversary. At least not that most of you would notice.
There would likely be a very slight decrease in US defense spending. I’m not talking hundreds of billions, more like hundreds of millions if that much. In fact, the loss of the forward basing may end up costing the US more.
I hear a lot of numbers bandied about regarding the cost of overseas basing of US troops. Numbers like $55 billion, which is the budget line item cost for overseas bases.
What I don’t see is the cost of basing those troops stateside. Seeing as the US does not pay any kind of rent to most of the countries that host US troops – in fact most of those countries subsidize the bases – the total dollar amount saved would be rather small in comparison. Unless the plan is to completely eliminate the approximately 64,000 troops – the current number of US service members in Europe – the savings would be negligible. You still have to pay those troops, house them, train them, equip them, maintain the vehicles and equipment and fuel everything.
International trade will slow, though not much at first. I know some of you think that would be a good thing, but it isn’t, and not just for the reasons you may think. Slowing international trade puts the status of the dollar at risk.
Defense firms and other heavy industries, the few that are left in the US that is, would start to contract because foreign contracts would start to dry up. More and more non-NATO allies would start looking elsewhere for arms and goods. Why look to the US when they can get similar results elsewhere for less money.
The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Which means the SU dollar is the denomination used for most international transactions. That fact is the primary reason you all have the standard of living you do.
If the US is not out front leading – and being part of NATO is leading – why should the rest of the world use the dollar? The BRICS nations are already talking about replacing the dollar. You – yes you reading this – will suffer if the dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency. Prices for everything will go up. Drastically. The amount you pay in taxes will explode just to cover the debt.
Long Term Effects
This one is a bit more difficult to parse. However, I can tell you that the US will become more and more isolated. It is already becoming apparent that the US is not a reliable partner for security purposes. Why would any country look to the US for anything under those circumstances?
When countries can’t turn to the US, who do they turn to?
That is a very limited set of countries: China and Russia. Although in reality, it’s just China and the Maoist CCP. Russia is little more than a gas station with nukes at this point.
The EU isn’t capable, nor is India for all of it’s 1.4 billion people. By withdrawing from NATO the US empowers those who wish to supplant the US as the dominant country in the world.
Do you want a totalitarian state being the leading superpower? I sure don’t. But that is one of the outcomes if the US leaves NATO.
The Unthinkable
Let’s say there was an attack on US interests somewhere? What happens then?
I’m going to theorize an attack by the Chinese on, say, Guam. (No Hank it isn’t going to tip over). So, who comes to our aid if the PLA/N/AF attacks Guam?
Nobody. At least nobody under the NATO umbrella. Japan might, although their constitution until recently forbid it. Australia? While I have great esteem for the individual Diggers, their military is a shell of what it used to be. The ROKs? I’d expect they’d be busy with their brethren to the north.
While the lack of allies may not affect the notional conflict in the short term, one of the parts of NATO that goes unremarked by most is the standardization of weapons systems. In a longer conflict, the inability of the US to pull from NATO stocks will cause major issues.
While major systems, like artillery pieces and tanks may be different, generally speaking the ammunition is compatible across NATO. For instance, Britain, Germany, France and the US all field different tanks – Challenger, Leopard II, LeClerc and Abrams – they all fire the same 120mm consumable case ammo.
Small arms are the same. Each NATO country fields their own rifle/grenade launcher/mortar however the ammo is the same for all of them.
As the old saw goes; amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk strategy and experts talk logistics. Without the aid of our NATO allies, the logistics chain starts to break down.
The Bottom Line
The simple reality is that the United States needs NATO almost as much as NATO needs the US. Without NATO, the US will lose its status as the preeminent political entity in the world. We will no longer be able to afford many of the things that make us great. Our military will suffer. Our economy will suffer. Your quality of life will suffer.
The US will be lucky if it is able to effectively defend its interests internationally. The potential is there for the US to become a pariah state.
It certainly will not lead as it does now. I would much rather set policy than follow someone else’s, especially in an international situation.
