Tag: Iran

  • The Israeli Counter-strike; Some Analysis

    The Israeli Counter-strike; Some Analysis

    An IAF Boeing 707 refueling plane and several F-35 and F-15 fighter jets carry out a drill just off the coast of Israel, August 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

    On Saturday, Israel hit multiple targets in Iran. These strikes were in retaliation for an Iranian attack at the beginning of October that saw more than 400 ballistic and cruise missiles launched from Iran. The Israeli Iron Dome and its associated systems like David’s Sling, and Iron Beam intercepted most of the incoming. The only death associated with the Iranian attack was an Arab. He was hit by rocket debris in Jericho. (The video will not embed, if you want to see it click HERE)

    So, what do we know about the Israeli strikes?

    A fair bit actually. We know it was an airstrike not a missile attack. we know a combination of F-15 Ra’am (Thunder), F-16 Sufa (Storm) and F-35 Adir (Mighty One) attack aircraft participated in the strike supported by the entire IAF refueling fleet.

    https://twitter.com/Schulla007/status/1850450383791075750

    We know the rough route the IAF took on the strikes, but I will not publish it here. Needless to say, the route overflew Syria and Iraq before crossing into Iranian Airspace. The furthest reported target was some 800km inside Iran and more than 2000km from Israeli airspace.

    What did the strikes hit?

    Here’s where we run into our first check. According to the IDF, the strike targeted several dozen sites, however, there is limited reliable intel about those sites. That said, we do know several locations that were hit.

    Of note is the Iranian solid fuel rocket manufactory near Parchin, about 30km east of Tehran. There has been some medium resolution commercial satellite imaging released. That imaging shows moderate to severe damage to 4-6 buildings in that particular complex. Early reports indicate that the mixing sheds and forming building were leveled. There is also sat imaging of Khojir, a military base and rocket facility 12km south of Tehran shows similar damage.

    https://twitter.com/Notonlybadnews/status/1850620479612350867

    There is reported damage, though no imagery, to rocket facilities in the city of Sharud. Those facilities are for the development and testing of missiles. I have also seen reporting that the strikes targeted the facility that produces Shahed drones, but again I have seen no imagery one way or the other.

    What else got hit?

    Radars and SAM sites. A lot of them. There is evidence that most if not all of Iran’s Russian-built S-300 and S-400 ADA systems including radars and launchers were destroyed. There is also evidence that a long distance 3D tracking radar array in western Iran was destroyed.

    https://twitter.com/AboXiv/status/1850790936504099203

    I’m going to digress here for a minute or two. The longstanding belief amongst the mid-and-half wits at State and the higher civilian levels of Defense is (I should say was after what Israel just did, but I’m a realist and know that not one single individual will correct their thinking) that the Iranian air defense net was too good and too dense for air operations. The Israeli SEAD/DEAD (Suppression/Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses) should put that particular theory to rest. Permanently.

    How did Israel do it?

    We’re entering into the realm of speculation here, but I’m 80% sure I have at least the broad strokes correct. Before I get into the how they did it, I’m going to go into the why they were able to do it for a second. The Israelis have the best intelligence agency in the world. When I say they have agents and operatives at very high levels in all but a few of their adversaries organizations I am not kidding. The Mossad knew exactly where every ADA radar and SAM site was located, how they were oriented and who was running them long before this strike happened. They also knew what buildings housed what particular rocket operation they wanted to target. In other words, they had the inside scoop on everything.

    As to the operational concept, that’s not all that hard to figure out. A combination of F-35s and F-16s did the SEAD/DEAD. The F-16s ran ‘wild weasel’ mission profiles while the F-35s killed the radars as soon as they powered up. The F-15s, with their greater speed, range and payload hit everything else once the ADA was taken out.

    What did this strike accomplish?

    If the damage I’ve seen is as bad as it looks and the strikes hit the facilities I think have been hit, Iran will not be able to produce any new rockets or ballistic missiles for at least a year, if not longer. If the reports about the Shahed factory are true, then there will be no more of those for at least 6 months.

    More pressing for the Regime in Tehran, the interior of the country is wide open for air attack. The S-300 and S-400 batteries and radars will need to be replaced, and at the moment, the supplier, Russia, has some small issues of its own to deal with. Whether or not Russia is willing or even able to replace the Iranian systems is up in the air.

    Am Yisrael Chai

  • One Year On

    One Year On

    It’s been one year since the animals of Hamas attacked several areas across southern Israel killing more than 1200 and taking 251 hostage. At least 60 live hostages and the remains of 30 more are still being held by the terrorist group in Gaza.

    We all remember the images of that day. Corpses strewn on the roadside, houses burnt, the heartbreaking images from the Nova music festival.

    https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1719035668733526358

    Since that day, Iran’s proxies in the region, Hamas and Hezbollah, have suffered incredible losses.

    The IDF has eliminated most of the senior Hamas leadership in Gaza. Hamas political leader Ismael Haniyeh was killed in a bombing in an IRGC Tehran safe-house. Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza has not been seen in months. And the vast majority of Hamas fighting units have been destroyed.

    Hezbollah, the Lebanese analog to Hamas, started launching rockets into northern Israel on October 8. A few weeks ago, Israel finally responded with a complex pager attack. This was followed up by a series of air-and-missile attacks that took out all of Hezbollah’s senior leadership. Their replacements do not seem to have a very long shelf-life either.

    https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1842130782870986917

    The Israelis aren’t done yet. As I write this (1800ish Sunday evening on the East Coast) the Iranians have closed all of their airports and their airspace in anticipation of an Israeli strike. Whether or not that is going to happen remains to be seen.

  • Bomb Iran

    Bomb Iran

    Bomb Iran

    Erick-Woods Erickson

    Yesterday, Iran launched over 200 ballistic missiles at Israel in several waves. Only one person died. His death was caught on a CCTV. The Palestinian man was on a street corner and a piece of a missile fell on top of him. (Yes, the footage is real)

    Because Iran’s 200 missiles were either successfully intercepted and missed their targets, progressives insist Israel must limit its response. Instead, Israel should ruthlessly bomb Iran because Iran has shown us three dangerous things.

    First, Iran has shown us that it would rather attack through terrorist proxies around the world. Iran has limited capacity to mount effective counter-attacks. Instead, Iran funds and trains deadly terrorist entities. Hezbollah has killed thousands, including many Americans, Europeans, and Arabs. Even now, Iran is trying to fund assassins to kill Donald Trump and other Americans.

    Second, Iran has shown it has the capability and capacity to launch ballistic missiles that cannot just reach Tel Aviv, but also Amman, Riyadh, Manama, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai.

    Third, Iran has shown its desire to acquire nuclear technology to build warheads on top of those missiles.

    Iran is not a threat directly. But Iran has repeatedly, for decades funded indirect, violent and deadly threats. The danger is that Iran wishes to operate through proxies and will use a nuclear arsenal as a cudgel. Should any nation attempt to stop its proxies, then Iran will launch nukes.

    Either let the terrorists terrorize or risk a mushroom cloud — that is Iran’s game. It is too dangerous a game to play.

    Israel should immediately work to take out Iran’s nuclear capability. Bomb them back to the dark ages when Iran first relied on wind and solar power.

    If Iran is allowed to arm itself with nuclear weapons, it will demand the world bow to its proxy terrorist organizations. We cannot allow that to happen and Israel is in the best position to stop them.

    Hezbollah is neutered in the north. Hamas is neutered in the south. Israel has shown it can withstand hundreds of Iranian missiles. But it will not be so fortunate with nuclear missiles aimed in its direction. Either defang Iran now, or never be rid of radical Islamic terrorists funded by Iran as proxies for its power.

  • Iran Launches Hundreds of Missiles at Israel

    Iran Launches Hundreds of Missiles at Israel

    The Iranian regime has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles at Israel. This is likely the long expected retaliation for Israel effectively decapitating Hezbollah over the past few weeks.

    https://twitter.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1841158431979254219

    Rocket sirens were sounding over much of Israel this evening warning Israelis to head to shelters.

    These launches occur against a backdrop of the IDF making a limited incursion into southern Lebanon to clear out Hezbollah positions south of the Litani river.

    I wrote about what was next in the ME the other day. I really expected that Iran would have taken the strikes on the Houthi oil terminals seriously and limit the retaliation to a couple of dozen rockets. It seems they did not. I can only guess at the Israelis next step, but I expect it to be spectacular.

    https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1841161891231551707
  • What’s Next in the Middle East?

    What’s Next in the Middle East?

    That’s a question many in the ‘smart set’ are asking themselves in the wake of the complete decapitation of Hezbollah at the hands of the Israelis. The problem is, they didn’t expect what happened already, so they are Ill-prepared to formulate any cogent answers to any follow-on questions about the next stages in the Middle East. Here’s my take as a less-than-disinterested observer.

    An important thing to note is that the current war in the Levant was never solely about Gaza or Apartheid or Palestinian rights, it was about the Islamic Republic of Iran’s desire to destroy Israel. The Palestinians are nothing but a convenient tool for the Ayatollahs in their quest for that aim.

    Most of you were aware that Hezbollah and Hamas are Iranian proxy groups. The Ayatollahs, starting with Khomeini and continuing to today, have used these groups as a shield as well as a sword against Israel and the collective West.

    Tehran has spent decades building up proxies to surround Israel with the explicit target of taking over the region and destroying Israel. The point of building up those terror proxies was to wait for the right time and strike, and serve as a deterrent from Israel taking them on directly.

    While the Ayatollahs are more than willing to sacrifice every last one of them to further their aims, they miscalculated badly this time. Tehran wasn’t counting on is Israel would fight these wars to win. In less than a year since 10/7 the Israelis have mostly eliminated Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and decapitated Hezbollah. Hezbolllah was the Ayatollahs shield and now it is gone.

    Today we get news that the IDF struck Houthi controlled ports and other facilities in Yemen. This was partially done as retaliation for several Houthi ballistic missile attacks in the past few days. There was little damage done by these launches, the Iron Dome intercepted all of the incoming. I said partially, because frankly, the strikes, especially the one on the oil terminal at Hodeidah port are a stark warning to the Tehran. A strike like that on just one of their oil terminal ports would cripple the Iranian economy for months.

    I feel that the Ayatollahs have to respond, but with Hamas in tatters and the entire chain of command of Hezbollah dead, I don’t know what exactly they could do. The Houthi might try something major, but I’m not convinced they have the materiel to do so. The same with the Iraqi PMF militias.

    There has been some palaver about enforcing UNSC resolution 1701. The problem is, that resolution has been in place since 2006 and still has not been fully implemented.

    I’m not one for predictions unless I have enough data for a quality analysis. And right now, I do not have enough. That said I think we can expect a few things in the next week leading up to the one year anniversary of the 10/7 attacks.

    We’ll see a continued low volume rocket and missile attacks from Hezbollah and the Houthis. I think I can safely say you’ll see some drones or rockets from the PMF in Iraq as well. The vast majority of these will be intercepted by the Israelis.

    I would also expect to see the IDF targeting more Hezbollah sites and personnel. I do not think the Israelis are done knocking of Hezbollah leadership quite yet. It seems pretty clear to me that Mossad has Hezbollah deeply and thoroughly penetrated.

    As a closer, there’s this little tidbit:

    https://twitter.com/JewishWarrior13/status/1840454643488575945

    As of now, that is unconfirmed, but it’s also too good to check.

  • Random News and Notes

    Random News and Notes

    Iranian (ex)President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helo crash Sunday. Good riddance to bad Rubbish.

    Raisi was returning to Iran after a diplomatic trip to Azerbaijan. All indications are that the crash was what’s called controlled flight into terrain. That’s on the pilot for flying below minimums.

    It seems the midwits in the State Department think the Butcher of Tehran deserved some sort of hagiographic sendoff.

    https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1792398732153311621
    https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1792619798758617441

    I really, really hate everyone who works in Foggy Bottom. . .


    It seems the Iranians have decided on who to blame for the crash today as well. According to Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister, the US is responsible. How’s that? Well, Iran has been prevented from buying certain aircraft parts due to sanctions. That includes parts for the 45+ year old Bell 212 carrying Raisi.


    I’m pretty sure I covered the JLOTS (joint logistics over the shore) pier the US was using to speed ‘humanitarian aid’ to Gaza before. The whole thing has been a goat rope and should – but probably won’t – open some eyes in the Pentagon. Between the delays, mechanical issues and assorted f*ckups along the way, the JLOTS is now up and running. Kind of. Most of the first shipment of aid from the pier was stolen before it could get to the distribution center.

    https://twitter.com/yaelbt/status/1792657192983863406


    There was a high school track meet in Oregon recently. You might ask why I bring it up, and rightly so because there are track meets held this time of year all over the country. At this specific meet, the winner of the girls 200m race was booed, both at the finish line and at the awards ceremony. You see, the winner was a boy named Aayden Gallagher.

    https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1792001526552244394

    Better get your fill of Cheddar Bay biscuits, Red Lobster is declaring bankruptcy. The chain said it has outstanding liabilities of between $1 and $10 billion in the filing. Much of the fault can be laid at the feet of the hedge fund that bought the seafood giant. The fund sold off all the real estate and then leased it back to the company at inflated rates.

    https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1792521112057737251
  • Iran Attack, What We Know

    Iran Attack, What We Know

    Shortly after I published this article about the Israel Hamas war yesterday, Iran launched a drone and missile attack on Israel. Here’s what we know so far:

    The attack consisted of several waves of drones, cruise and ballistic missiles. The first indication that an attack was underway was a 1618 EDT tweet from the IDF. They announced that they were aware of multiple launches from Iran and were tracking the inbound drones and cruise missiles.

    https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1779242779182288964

    185 drones, 110 intermediate range ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles were launched. Of all the munitions launched, only 7 IRBMs made it through to impact in Israel. All others missed or were intercepted. As of this writing, early Sunday afternoon, only 1 person is reported to have been injured in the strikes, but it is unclear if the injury was a direct result of the attack. Damage is reported to be minimal.

    https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1779565767815557513
    https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1779366814197116947

    The Israeli air defense system, which includes the Patriot, Iron Dome, Arrow and David’s Sling systems, was not the only defense against the drone and cruise missile swarms. Israeli, US and British fighters were all involved, shooting down dozens of Shahed drones before they entered Israeli airspace, as were US and British warships. As an aside, I have to wonder how many US pilots became ‘aces’ last night. Drone and cruise missile shoot-downs count AFAIK.

    https://twitter.com/JpLawrence3/status/1779562208608801171
    https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1779307659872645623

    Now on to the political situation. It’s beginning to look like the Biden White House gave Iran the green-light for this attack. If that turns out to be true, it’s going to end badly for Biden.

    https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1779512742350635038

    There is also a concerted effort to limit the Israeli response to the attack. Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu that nothing of “value” was hit in Iran’s airborne attack Saturday and asserted American forces will not be participating in any offensive against Iran, according to a report.

    The G7 leaders held a teleconference today discussing the matter.

    https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1779529928834236878

    Let’s be crystal clear here, if this attack happened to any other country there would be zero calls for restraint. But because it’s Israel, well, they need to sit back and take it.

    As I was researching this piece I ran across this tweet from Avi Mayer, the former editor-in-chief for the Jerusalem Post. It breaks down a lot of the mis-and-dis info you’re likely to see regarding this incident.

    https://twitter.com/AviMayer/status/1779336182112878804

    Let’s dispense with a few lies you will likely hear in the coming days: Lie #1: “Israel started this with its airstrike in Damascus.” False. Iran has been maintaining a constant assault on Israel for decades via its proxies in the region – chief among them Hezbollah, which is wholly funded, armed, and controlled by the Iranian regime. That assault has only intensified since October 7. Hezbollah has fired rockets and missiles into northern Israel on a near-daily basis for more than six months, causing the depopulation of much of northern Israel. Tens of thousands of Israelis have not seen their homes in half a year due to this Iranian-directed assault; many of their homes no longer exist, having been destroyed by Hezbollah’s rockets. The Houthis, another Iranian proxy group based in Yemen, have also fired numerous missiles at southern Israel. Finally, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have been funded, armed, and trained by Iran for years and the Iranian regime views the Palestinian terror groups as part of its offensive efforts against Israel. There has not been a single day in the past six months in which Iran, via its various proxies in the region, has not attacked Israel. The airstrike in Damascus targeted individuals directly responsible for Iran’s ongoing assault on the Jewish state. Lie #2: “The target of Israel’s airstrike in Damascus was a diplomatic facility.” False. The notion that the target of the Damascus airstrike was a mere “Iranian consulate” is laughable. The building was a local headquarters of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian military that has been designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and multiple other countries. Those killed were senior figures in the IRGC, including Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the IRGC’s foreign operations unit who was responsible for liaising with Hezbollah, and his deputy, General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahim. Five other IRGC officers were killed in the airstrike, as were five Iranian-affiliated militiamen, one Hezbollah operative, one Iranian military advisor, and two apparent civilians. The airstrike was aimed at military figures in a military facility and the targets were directly involved in orchestrating attacks on Israel. The fact that the building was adjacent to the Iranian embassy does not change its military character. Lie #3: “Israel carried out the Damascus airstrike in order to provoke a wider war.” False. For months, Israel has limited its military response to the ongoing assault by Iranian proxy groups to tit-for-tat airstrikes and artillery fire directly targeting the sources of the attacks. The reality, however, is that large swaths of northern Israel have been uninhabitable due to the ongoing Hezbollah attacks, which are being directed by the group’s patron, Iran. The only way to force Hezbollah to stop its assault on northern Israel and restore calm is to target the Iranian military officials behind the attacks. That is what the Damascus airstrike was intended to do: to end the impunity enjoyed by Iranian military officials as they oversee ongoing attacks targeting the people of Israel. Lie #4: “Any Israeli response will cause the situation to escalate further.” False. The unprecedented Iranian assault on Israel, which involved hundreds of missiles and drones, was the escalation. It has been roundly condemned around the world. Israel will respond to this unparalleled act of aggression as any sovereign country would, not least in order to deter the Iranian regime from carrying out further attacks against Israeli territory and send the message that Israel will not tolerate massive attacks on its sovereign territory by a foreign state. Lie #5: “The relatively limited damage from the Iranian attack means it’s no big deal and Israel should let it go.” False. The Iranian assault was absolutely unprecedented in its scope and severity. The only reason it didn’t cause widespread damage and massive casualties is because Israel and its allies have, for years, invested billions of dollars in developing sophisticated air defense systems against the threat posed by Iran. Most of the missiles and drones were intercepted before they reached Israel’s borders because Israel and its allies were prepared for them. But make no mistake: this Iranian attack was meant to rain death and destruction on the people of Israel. If Israel doesn’t respond, it will open the door to further and more severe attacks by Iran, which has stated its desire and intention to destroy the Jewish state on numerous occasions. No other country would be asked to put up with that. Neither should Israel.

    So, what’s next? I don’t know. I doubt the Israelis will just lay back and do nothing though. I can tell you what I’d do if I were in Bibi’s or IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi’s shoes. First up, I’d turn the Iranian spy ship in the Red Sea into a reef. I might then take a look at the Iranian oil terminals near Jask on the Gulf of Oman. But that’s me. . .

  • Israel-Hamas

    Israel-Hamas

    It’s been six months and a couple of days since the barbaric attack on southern Israel by Hamas terrorists. I’ve avoided writing much about the war despite it taking up a lot of my personal bandwidth. But there have been some newsworthy events in the last few days that I feel I need to cover.

    First up is the Hamas Gaza ministry of health death toll. The MSM has been happily parroting the numbers from Hamas with a completely uncritical eye. You’ll have seen 33,000 dead, mostly women and children, bandied about with little to no pushback. This despite the fact that the numbers provided were statistically impossible.

    https://twitter.com/FDD/status/1777721833321529469

    Well, the Hamas run Ministry of health was forced to admit the death toll numbers they’ve been happily providing are false. And not just a little bit false. They were off by more than a third. The Ministry now says it has ‘incomplete data’ on more than 11,000 or the 33,000 deaths they claim.

    Not for nothing, I doubt the ~22,000 they now claim. Remember, if you will, the incident at the Al Ahli Arab Hospital in northern Gaza. Hamas initially claimed Israeli airstrike hit the hospital itself and killed more than 500 people. Well, it turned out none of those claims were true. It was a PiJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) rocket that misfired and hit a parking area on hospital grounds and killed around 100 people.

    Hamas has good reason to lie about the death toll and the causes. They need the collective west, and particularly the US, to believe that lots of civilians are being killed. Joe Truzman, a senior researcher at FDD estimates that around 10,000 of those killed are Hamas/PIJ fighters. If he’s correct, and I have no reason to doubt him, the combattant/non-combattant casualty ratio is 1:1. That low of a ratio is something that no army has ever done in urban warfare.


    The IDF has moved most of its combat forces out of Gaza. The single brigade left in Gaza, the Nahal brigade, is securing the ‘Netzarim Corridor’, which crosses Gaza from the Be’eri area in southern Israel to the Strip’s coast. This force is being used as a screening force, preventing Hamas from re-entering the northern part of the strip.

    Despite what you might have heard, this withdrawal was not done due to any pressure from the US. After 6 months of intense urban combat, those troops need time to rest and refit. As of this writing, the plans to take Rafah are still a go. The only question is when the op will kick off.


    Last week, Israel sent Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of the IRGC, to Allah in a strike on an Iranian consulate annex building in Damascus Syria. The Ayatollahs went on their usual tear, and have been screeching about a response ever since. They went so far as to say they would attack US assets if the US interfered in any way. They have since walked that back that claim some.

    https://twitter.com/InstaNewsAlerts/status/1779212869306871850

    Last night, the Iranians seized an Israeli owned container ship off the coast of the UAE. Whether or not this is part of the response or not is unclear. Iran has been attacking Israeli owned shipping since at least 2018.

    https://twitter.com/mercoglianos/status/1779100303339487481

    On a related note, Israeli FM Israel Katz has just postponed a diplomatic trip to Europe due to the security situation. He was to hold talks with the President of Hungary, the Chancellor of Austria and the Foreign Ministers of Hungary and Austria.

    Buckle up folks, the next few days is gonna get real interesting.


    Addendum: As I was about to publish this piece, something interesting crossed the transom. President Stability Shoes is coming back from Delaware early to confer with the NSC about the happenings in the Middle East.

    https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1779185233893458106
  • BREAKING: Retaliatory Strikes Have Commenced

    BREAKING: Retaliatory Strikes Have Commenced

    US Central Command issued a statement a short while ago announcing the first round of retaliatory strikes against Iran-backed proxies in the middle east.

    https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1753535280923967851?s=20

    The full statement reads:

    At 4:00 p.m. (EST) Feb. 02, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces conducted airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force and affiliated militia groups. U.S. military forces struck more than 85 targets, with numerous aircraft to include long-range bombers flown from United States. The airstrikes employed more than 125 precision munitions. The facilities that were struck included command and control operations centers, intelligence centers, rockets, and missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicle storages, and logistics and munition supply chain facilities of militia groups and their IRGC sponsors who facilitated attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces.

    This is a breaking story, stay tuned for additional coverage as details become available.

  • Middle East Round-Up

    Middle East Round-Up

    Tower 22

    For those of you not tracking, some tribe of inbred goat-f*ckers killed 3 Soldiers and injured at least 38 more in Jordan Saturday night. I held off on writing about it since then, because I was expecting a response. Yah, I know, wishful thinking.

    As I was getting ready to publish this, some new intel crossed the transom. Tower 22, the US base in Northwestern Jordan, was not the only target. A suicide drone was shot down by a US Coyote drone over al Tanf, the US base in Syria. The Coyote took the shot as it was returning to Tower 22.

    So far, all we’ve seen from the White House is a weak-kneed statement about the attack.

    Yesterday, the majority of Iran-backed militias were told by the IRGC to abandon their bases of operation pending a US attack. This makes targeting more difficult for the US.

    As of late yesterday, several KC-135 tankers were outbound from their base at March AFB in Southern California headed to RAF Lakenheath in the UK. It is unclear if this is a regular rotation or related to the situation in Jordan.

    Biden met with the NSC this morning to discuss the situation. This meeting should have occurred Saturday night, or at the latest Sunday morning.

    . . .National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, Homeland Security Advisor Dr. Liz Sherwood Randall, and NSC Coordinator for the Middle East Brett McGurk.

    I am not sanguine about the response. Sullivan, Finer and McGurk are all Iran apologists. Sullivan in particular shouldn’t be anywhere near the decision making process.

    I expect a set of limited strikes err, a strongly worded letter in retaliation, but that isn’t what needs to happen. Limiting our response just shows weakness.

    Look, we all know Iran is behind these attacks, including those on shipping in the Gulf of Aden-Bab el Mandeb-Red sea area. Iran needs to be taught a harsh lesson. The Iranian spy ship, Beshad, that’s feeding targeting data to the Houthi needs to become a reef. The Iranian proxies that are actually pulling the triggers need to meet Allah. And any IRGC forces outside of Iran proper need to catch a J-DAM.