Word has come out that Hamas plans on releasing the bodies of the Bibas family. The terrorist organization has been very tight lipped about the fate of Shiri, Kfir and Ariel who were taken. along with their father and husband, Yarden. Yarden Bibas was released as part of the hostage deal earlier this month.
This week’s exchange will include 6 living hostages and 4 bodies. Khalil al-Hayya, the senior Hamas negotiator, said the bodies to be released would include those of the Bibas family – Shiri and her young children Kfir and Ariel, who were aged nine months and four years when Hamas kidnapped them.
In exchange, Israel will free all women and those under the age of 19 arrested since last October and is allowing some rubble-clearing equipment into Gaza through the border with Egypt.
Omer Wenkert, Eliya Cohen, Avraham (Avera) Mengisto, Tal Shoham, Omer Shem Tov, and Hisham Al-Sayed will all be released this Saturday. Mengitsu and Al-Sayed have been held in Gaza for around a decade, having crossed into Gaza on their own accord.
(L-R) Sagui Dekel Chen, Iair Horn, and Alexander Sasha Troufanov on stage with Hamas terrorists in Khan Yunis, February 15, 2025.
Despite saying they would not release any hostages this week because Israel had violated the terms of the ceasefire agreement, Hamas released three hostages today. Alexander Sasha Troufanov, Sagui Dekel Chen, and Iair Horn were transferred to Israeli custody after 498 days in the hands of Hamas.
Today’s release was uncertain until it actually happened. As I wrote the other day, Hamas was not going to release any hostages this week. It looks like they blinked, at least a little. Considering the statements from President Trump about the situation of late, I’m surprised they did not release more.
In a statement released on Truth Social, the President made it clear he thought Hamas should have released all the hostages today, but three is better than none. He also made a point of saying that Bibi Netanyahu and Israel had the lead in the decisions about it and the US would have Israel’s back regardless.
Hamas has just released three Hostages from GAZA, including an American Citizen. They seem to be in good shape! This differs from their statement last week that they would not release any Hostages. Israel will now have to decide what they will do about the 12:00 O’CLOCK, TODAY, DEADLINE imposed on the release of ALL HOSTAGES. The United States will back the decision they make!
According to the Jerusalem Post, the hostages appeared thin and pale but were able to stand, support their own weight, and walk independently.
These initial signs suggest their medical condition is stable and does not require emergency hospitalization at Soroka Medical Center or Barzilai Medical Center in the South.
At the reception point in Re’im, military doctors conducted initial medical examinations, accompanied by a mental health officer who will continue to support them until they reach Ichilov Hospital and Sheba Medical Center.
There are 73 hostages, including 5 Americans, still being held in Gaza. At least 35 of them are dead.
Israeli soldiers seen inside the northern Gaza Strip, as seen from the Israeli side of the border, on January 19, 2025(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)
I wrote a quick update about the situation in Gaza the other day. In it I mentioned the comments made by President Trump regarding the hostage situation. While those initial comments opened some eyes across the region, what the President said the next day really put the fox in the henhouse.
When the President heard that Hamas was planning on violating the cease-fire and hostage deal by not releasing hostages as scheduled, he had more to say. After commenting again on the condition of the three released hostages, Trump issued an ultimatum; release the hostages by Saturday, or “all hell will break loose”.
When pressed by reporters for details on what that meant, Mr. Trump initially responded: “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out, too. Hamas will find out what I mean.”
He later said Saturday’s delayed hostage release – which was expected to see the release of another three hostages held by Hamas in exchange for dozens more Palestinian prisoners – should include all of the remaining hostages.
“I’d say they ought to be returned by 12 o’clock on Saturday,” Mr. Trump said. “All of them, not in drips and drabs, not two and one and three and four and two.”
Hamas, of course, got its panties in a wad over the ultimatum. A senior Hamas leader told the French news agency AFP on Tuesday that Mr. Trump’s warning over the hostages “further complicates matters.”
“Trump must remember that there is an agreement that must be respected by both parties and this is the only way to return the prisoners (hostages),” Sami Abu Zuhri said. “The language of threats has no value and further complicates matters”.
Today, there is news that Hamas did not take the President’s warning as seriously as they should. The Jerusalem Post is now reporting that Hamas will not release all of the hostages this Saturday.
Senior Hamas spokesperson Sami Abu Zuhri spoke to Al Jazeera on Wednesday evening and stated that Hamas is “committed” to implementing the previously agreed schedule of the hostage deal and that they will not release “all” Israeli hostages on Saturday.
Abu Zuhri’s comments likely came as part of a larger statement to Al Jazeera regarding Hamas’s views towards the potential breakdown of the ceasefire agreement.
Earlier on Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that if Hamas does not release the Israeli hostages by Saturday, all hell will break loose.
Hamas might just be starting to realize that they are not dealing with Biden, Blinken, Sullivan, and the rest of the halfwits from the last administration. They did blink, at least a little and are now releasing at least three hostages this Saturday.
The IDF has already started to position troops and equipment close to the Gaza Strip. If they move, and it seems likely if Hamas violates the deal again, I’d expect the IDF to sever the Strip at that Netzarim corridor again, and push any of the Gaza Arabs back to the south end of the strip. I would also expect them to take control of the crossings into Egypt at Rafah and Kerem Shalom. They may take the Philadelphi corridor, but that would be secondary.
A Palestinian walks past destroyed residential buildings damaged by the Israeli air and ground offensive in Bureij, central Gaza Strip, January 22, 2025.
It’s been a hot minute since I’ve written about the goings-on in Israel and that region. So, I figure it’s time for an update of sorts.
I’m reasonably sure that you have heard about what Trump said about the US taking over Gaza as part of the rebuilding process there. As part of that same press availability, alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he also said Egypt and Jordan would have to take some of the Gaza Arabs*. What’s more, in comments released today, he said that any displaced Gaza Arabs would not have the right of return.
The first comments caused some serious soul searching across the Sahel, particularly in Egypt and the Hashemite Kingdom of Transjordan. Keep in mind, the Gaza Strip was Egyptian prior to the 1967 Six Day war and Judea and Samaria (the West Bank*) were the ‘Trans’ part of Transjordan until the same war.
Both Egypt and Jordan have had serious issues with refugees from both Gaza and Judea and Samaria. The previous King of Jordan, Hussein, was almost toppled by them. Neither can truly afford to take many Gazan refugees but neither can they afford not to do as the US wants.
The hostages that were released by Hamas on Saturday, Eli Sharabi, Ohad Ben Ami, and Or Levy, were in the worst condition of any so far. They looked not dissimilar to photos of German concentration camp victims, exceedingly thin, gaunt and pale. Hamas forced the men to thank them before they were released. Eli Sharabi said he was thankful to go home to his wife and daughters. The captor asking the questions laughed knowing, unlike Eli, that the wife and daughters had been murdered on 10/7.
President Trump weighed in on the condition of the hostages, “Hamas has been a disaster… I watched the hostages come back today. And they looked like Holocaust survivors, they were in horrible condition. They were emaciated… I don’t know how much longer we can take that.” I don’t think he is going to take it.
It gets worse though. After the nearly universal backlash about the condition of the released hostages, Hamas said today that it was suspending the hostage release program indefinitely. They are – falsely – claiming Israeli violations of the hostage deal. Among the claims are that the IDF has fired on Gazans who have returned north of the Netzarim corridor and that Israel has prevented food and other necessities from entering Gaza.
My take is they need time to fatten up the remaining hostages. Hamas and their enablers clearly did not realize the effect the shockingly bad condition of the released hostages would have on public opinion outside the Strip.
I also tend to think they underestimated Trump after dealing with Biden and his band of mid-and-half-wits for the last four years. They are about to find out there is a new sheriff in town, and he isn’t afraid of using his power to get what he wants. I think Qatar the one holding most of the purse strings for Hamas and the PA in Judea and Samaria – has underestimated him as well, at least up until Friday that is. The comments about the US taking control of Gaza opened some eyes in that region, including those of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the day-to-day ruler of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Author’s note: I am no longer calling the Arab residents of the Gaza strip, Judea and Samaria Palestinians. I will only call them what they are; Arabs. They didn’t even call themselves that prior to the rise of Arafat when it became politically expedient to have a separate nationality to fall back on. Nor will I call Judea and Samaria the West Bank.
Being the only Jewish state in the Middle East, and in the world, Israel has always sought natural allies among a sea of Muslim Arabs. In Syria today, the opportunity to forge a natural alliance exists — with two minority groups who are seeking an alliance with Israel.
Each of these two communities has a particular identity that stands out from the majority–Sunni Muslim Arab majority. The Kurdish community, who, ethnically, are not Arabs, represent more than 10% of Syria’s population. The other community are the Druze. Though Arabs by ethnicity, they are not considered Muslims. In the secretive Druze religion, they consider Jethro, Moses’s father-in-law, the major prophet. Many among the Muslim majority view the Druze as “infidels.”
These two communities reside in different geographic areas. The Kurds occupy a large swath of Syrian territory in northeast Syria, estimated to be about 40% of Syria’s territory. The majority of Druze are to be found in an enclave around “Jabal Druze,” the Druze Mountains in southwestern Syria, close to the Israeli Golan Heights.
Israel has had a long history of support for the Kurds, especially those in Iraq, with Israelis fully identifying with the Kurdish people’s struggle for self-determination and statehood. In the early 1960s, Mullah Mustafa al-Barzani, the legendary Iraqi Kurdish freedom fighter and Kurdish military leader, was trained in Israel. Barzani sought to create an independent Kurdish nation for the approximate 40 million Kurds living on the borders of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Turkey.
Without being a sovereign in their historical homeland and able to protect the Jewish people, Jews suffered persecution, pogroms, and eventually the Holocaust until, after over two millennia, Israel was established in 1948. It is therefore natural for Israelis to have empathy for the Kurdish people. Reuters reported on September 13, 2017 that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Israel supports the legitimate efforts of the Kurdish people to achieve their own state.” On October 10, 2019, Netanyahu once again issued a statement, declaring, “Israel strongly condemns the Turkish invasion of the Kurdish areas in Syria and warns against the ethnic cleansing of the Kurds by Turkey and its proxies. Israel is prepared to extend humanitarian assistance to the gallant Kurdish people.” On November 10, 2024, the newly installed Israeli foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, emphasized the importance of forging a “natural alliance” with the Kurdish nation.
The Turks, the Iranians, and the Arab regimes of Iraq and Syria share little, except a unifying desire to prevent the creation of a Kurdish state. Turkey and Iran, in particular, have been aggressively persecuting their Kurdish populations. The major ambition of Turkey’s Erdoğan is to impede any manifestation of Kurdish independence or even any autonomous status in Syria.
Erdoğan has trained and financed the rebel groups that ended the Bashar Assad regime’s control of Syria. While the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) focused on capturing Aleppo, Hama, Hums, and Damascus, Erdoğan’s proxy, the National Syrian Army (NSA), focused on killing Kurds and conquering Kurdish-majority communities in northern Syria.
Israel has a security and strategic stake in an alliance with the Kurds in Iraq and Syria (as well as supporting the Kurds in Iran) and the Druze community in Syria. Strong alliances with these minorities would create a barrier against any future attempts by Iran and its Shiite Iraqi militias attempting to infiltrate Syria and link up with Hezb’allah.
A prominent Syrian-Kurdish leader friend of this writer has correctly commented to me that, although words of support from Israeli government officials are nice, the Kurds need action. The Kurds want an alliance with Israel, and they want military assistance. I responded by noting that although it had been difficult for Israel to aid the Kurds militarily, given the close military relations Israel had with the Turkish army and intelligence apparatus, Erdoğan’s openly hostile declarations clearly indicate him as a declared enemy of Israel. As a result, this has changed the calculations in Jerusalem, and Israel is now prepared to render military assistance to the Kurds.
An alliance with the Druze is much easier, given the proximity of the Golan Heights to the Druze villages in southern Syria. The U.K. Telegraph reported on December 14, 2024 that “the residents of a Druze community in southern Syria have expressed a desire to become part of Israel to prevent assaults by ‘radical Islamists.’”
These Druze villagers remained loyal to the Assad regime to the end. As a minority, they were always watching their backs, and now they fear retribution from the Sunni jihadist rebels who have taken over Syria. In terms of the bigger picture for the Druze, they would like to be granted an autonomous status in southwestern Syria, realizing that an independent Druze state is unrealistic. Given the weight of the Israeli Druze community, and the prestige and affection the Jewish majority gives them, Syrian Druze feel compelled to choose sides. Their fear of jihadist rule and the prospect of joining with their fellow Druze in Israel under the Israeli Defense Forces umbrella make for an easy choice.
A Christian-Lebanese friend of this author recently told me that “Israel must become the protector of the minorities in the Middle East.” He had in mind not only the Kurds and the Druze, but also the Christians of Lebanon and Syria. Although it is a tribute to Israel’s recent military victories, which has projected Israel as the “strong horse” in the region, those objectives might be far beyond Israel’s resources. Still, an alliance with the Kurds and the Druze in Syria has considerable merit.
I am going to leave any commentary to those (looking at our editor) with more background knowledge on said groups.
Israel’s critics often give the impression that the Jewish state is the only state in the Middle East that doesn’t have a right to exist. But if events keep going along their current path, Israel might be the only state in the Middle East that exists at all.
Hyperbole? Sure. But a look around the Levant shows just who had true sovereignty and legitimacy all along.
The Assad dynasty in Syria spent decades carving up Lebanon and negating its territorial integrity. Now Syria itself is tumbling toward the same fate: a country with borders that exist only on paper and in a state of perpetual political chaos thanks to the machinations of its foreign patrons in Tehran.
Over the weekend, Islamist rebels retook effective control of the city of Aleppo, a central node of conflict in the ongoing Syrian civil war, which began more than a decade ago. The attack, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), began last Wednesday and in less than a week has thrown the regime of Bashar al-Assad into disarray.
For the duration of the Syrian civil war, Iran and Russia have kept Assad propped up while subjecting swaths of the country to ruthless bloodletting. But both Iran and Russia are stretched at the moment, the former in its multifront war on Israel and the latter in Ukraine. Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy in Lebanon, has been so depleted by the IDF that it is unable to come to Assad’s aid in any significant way. Iran itself has been weakened substantially by Israeli counteroffensive strikes, which took out Iranian ballistic missile sites as well as Iran-aligned terror infrastructure in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Because Iran was also providing missiles to Russia, Moscow has been hamstrung by Israel’s strikes on Iranian facilities.
This is almost certainly the reason the rebels chose to strike when they did, and it is surely why the surprise attack was as successful as it was. The rebels seemingly have drawn Russia’s air force back into the conflict, further stretching Moscow’s capabilities.
The rebels are led by an offshoot of al Qaeda and supported by Turkish-backed Islamists. They have, therefore, also done battle with the Kurds, a group traditionally backed (at least nominally) by the Western alliance, although the only NATO state involved at the moment is Turkey, which has long tried to obliterate the Kurds.
There are no “good guys” as traditionally understood in this round, and that includes our NATO “ally” Turkey, which has reembraced its role as sponsor and host of Hamas. Which is to say, the renewed rebellion can be Assad and Iran’s just deserts without being cause for bandwagoning. We don’t always have a dog in every fight.
But it does demonstrate the Jenga tower created by Iran’s regional adventurism. The more power Tehran took from Gaza, parts of the West Bank, South Lebanon and Syria, the more precarious the whole construct became. It is now teetering.
All these states and statelets have been attempting to bring ruination to Israel’s sovereignty at the price of their own.
Which isn’t surprising, because pan-Arab movements, both secular and Islamist, have never cared much for fixed borders. In April 1920, a fiery, undereducated populist figure egging on an anti-Jewish pogrom in Jerusalem held up a picture of the self-declared ruler of Greater Syria, the Mecca-born Faisal, and shouted “This is your king!” That agitator was Amin al-Husseini, soon to be named grand mufti of Jerusalem. Before becoming the Father of Palestinian Nationalism, Husseini was the Lazy Nephew of Pan-Syrian Nationalism. When opportunity knocked, he answered.
Meanwhile, Lebanon was created as scarcely more than a puffed-up French territory designed to perpetuate ethnic friction and factionalism—mission accomplished. The Mecca-born Faisal who tried to declare himself king of Syria was from the Hashemite clan, who today rule the state of Jordan while the House of Saud tends to Mecca. Faisal had to settle for being king of Iraq.
Through it all, those troublesome Jews reestablished state sovereignty over their homeland of 3,000 years and counting. In today’s Middle East, those deep roots sure do come in handy.
There are reports out of Israel that indicate a 60 day ceasefire with Hezbollah in Lebanon is imminent. This will see an – at least temporary end – to the hostilities that started more than a year ago. The news of this deal comes amid a backdrop of increased Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon as they further degrade Hezbollah’s combat power.
According to the Times of Israel, the Netanyahu security cabinet is set to meet this evening to approve the deal.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene the high-level security cabinet in Tel Aviv on Tuesday evening to approve a 60-day ceasefire with the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon after more than a year of war, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Monday.
At the same time, the official stressed that Israel was accepting a cessation of hostilities, not an end to the war on Hezbollah.
The deal calls for an immediate 60 day cessation of hostilities. It would see Israel leave southern Lebanon and Hezbollah retreat north of the Litani river. If that sounds familiar, it’s because that was what was supposed to happen at the end of the 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah war. The Lebanese Army is supposed to move into southern Lebanon alongside UNFIL troops to ensure Hezbollah fighters leave the area.
The deal is supposed to be administered by the US and France, although French participation was not worked out until the last minute. French president Macron angered the Israelis with a call for an arms embargo. That difficulty was overcome by France not committing to effect the ICC’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu and Gallant.
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu announced the ceasefire has been signed in a televised statement to the Israeli people.
“Citizens of Israel,
I promised you victory, and we will achieve victory.
We will complete the task of obliterating Hamas, we will bring home all of our hostages, we will ensure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel and we will return the residents of the north back home safely.
The war will not end until we realize all its goals, including the return of the residents of the north safely home. And I tell you, it will happen, just like it happened in the south.
My friends, residents of the north, I am proud of you, I am proud of your perseverance, and I am totally committed to your security, to the rehabilitation of your communities, to your future.
To date, thanks to the bravery of our fighters in the IDF, the Israel Security Agency, the Mossad and Israel Police, we have made great inroads into the seven fronts of the “War of Redemption.”
These achievements are a source of awe and admiration across the globe, and they are projecting Israel’s might throughout the Middle East:
First, the head of the octopus—Iran. We destroyed major parts of Iran’s air defense system and missile-manufacturing capabilities, and we demolished a significant component of their nuclear program.
I am determined to do anything needed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. That threat has always been my top priority and is even more so today, when you hear Iran’s leaders state over and over again their intention to obtain nuclear weapons. For me, removing that threat is the most important mission to ensure the existence and future of the State of Israel.
In Gaza, we dismantled the Hamas battalions and killed close to 20,000 terrorists. We killed Sinwar, we killed Deif, we killed senior Hamas officials and we brought 154 hostages back. We are committed to bringing them all home, the 101 hostages still in Gaza, those who are still alive as well as the dead, and end the terrible anguish of their families. We are of course committed to completing the annihilation of Hamas.
In Judea and Samaria, we are taking out terrorists, we are destroying terrorist infrastructure and we are operating in all of the terror strongholds. There is no place out of our reach.
In Yemen, we attacked the Houthis’ Port of Hodeida forcibly, which the international coalition had not done.
In Iraq, we successfully thwarted, and are still thwarting, many drone attacks, and we have many challenges ahead.
In Syria, we are systematically blocking attempts by Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian army to transfer weapons to Lebanon. Assad must understand that he is playing with fire.
And now, for the seventh front—Lebanon. Hezbollah decided to attack us from Lebanon on October 8th. A year later, it is not the same Hezbollah. We have pushed them decades back. We eliminated Nasrallah, the axis of the axis. We have taken out the organization’s top leadership, we have destroyed most of their rockets and missiles, we have killed thousands of terrorists and we demolished their underground terror infrastructure abutting our border, infrastructure they had been building for years.
We have attacked strategic targets throughout Lebanon and we have brought down dozens of terror hi-rises in Beirut’s Dahieh. The ground in Beirut is shaking.
Citizens of Israel, Only three months ago, this all would have sounded like science fiction. But it isn’t. We did these things.
At every moment of managing this campaign, I observe all fronts simultaneously. That is what I did at the beginning of the war when I decided to focus on Gaza and not open a broader front in Lebanon. That is what I did several months ago when the conditions ripened to go north, and then we decided to focus on Hezbollah.
That is what I did after the missile attack from Iran, when we meticulously decided on the time and nature of our response.
And that is what I am doing today. I observe all the fronts simultaneously and see the broad picture. I am determined to give our courageous soldiers every resource to keep them safe and bring us victory.
Therefore, this evening I will bring a ceasefire outline for the cabinet’s approval.
The length of the ceasefire depends on what happens in Lebanon.
With the United States’ full understanding, we maintain full freedom of military action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack.
I hear the claim that if we enter into a ceasefire, we will not be able to attack and will not be able to renew the war. I remind you, that is exactly what they said when we had a ceasefire in Gaza to release the hostages. They said we wouldn’t go back to fighting, but we did.
They tell me Hezbollah will be quiet for a year or two, grow stronger and then attack us. But Hezbollah will be in violation of the agreement not only if it fires on us. It will be in violation of the agreement if it obtains weapons to fire at us in the future. And we will respond forcefully to any violation.
I know there are people who don’t believe we will do that. But many also didn’t believe we would enter Gaza on the ground, and we did. They didn’t believe we would go into Shifa and Khan Younis, and we did. They didn’t believe we would go into Rafah and the Philadelphi corridor, in the face of all the international pressure. Not only did we go in, we attacked, and then some. Many didn’t believe that we would attack in Lebanon, and we did that too. We attacked with force and sophistication that surprised the whole world.
So after all that, maybe we should start believing? Believe in our determination, believe in our path, in our commitment to victory.
Why should we have a ceasefire now? For three main reasons:
The first reason is to focus on the Iranian threat, and I won’t expand on that.
The second reason is to give our forces a breather and replenish stocks. And I say it openly, it is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries. These delays will be resolved soon. We will receive supplies of advanced weaponry that will keep our soldiers safe and give us more strike force to complete our mission.
And the third reason for having a ceasefire is to separate the fronts and isolate Hamas. From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages.
Citizens of Israel, In the past year, we turned the tables. We were attacked from seven fronts and we fought back with might. We are changing the face of the Middle East. We are doing all this thanks to our brave soldiers, thanks to your tenacity and thanks to the resolute and smart management of the war.
I have said many times, a good deal is a deal that is enforced, and we will enforce it.
With God’s help, we will establish security, we will rehabilitate the north and continue, united, until victory.”
I mentioned the Israel-Hezbollah/Hamas/Iran conflict in yesterday’s World News Roundup, well here’s some more info that came in after that piece went to press.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s piece, the IDF has been playing whack-a-mole with the Hezbollah leadership. Every time someone new is appointed to a leadership position, they get smoked. Since I last wrote about what Hezb and Hamass leaders got planted, several more have been killed.
Hashem Safieddine, who was named the head of Hezbollah after the untimely demise of Hassan Nasrallah got his comeuppance in an Israeli airstrike in early October. Naim Qassem, who was next in line seems to have fled Lebanon, and is currently unaccounted for.
Today we get news that the Hezbollah media relations – read main propagandist – Mohammed Afif was killed in an Israeli airstrike in downtown Beirut. Afif publicly and loudly bragged that Hezbollah was behind the drone strike that hit the residence of Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu.
It was only a matter of time before he got his 72.
It gets better. Iran, knowing that Trump takes office in 62 days, has instructed Hezbollah to seek a ceasefire even if it means retreating behind the Litani river.
If the name of that river sounds familiar and you’re wondering why, there’s a simple explanation. UN resolution 1701, dating back to the end of the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, required Hezbollah to leave the region of Lebanon south of the Litani among other things. It also required the UNFIL to confiscate any weapons not belonging to the Lebanese Army. That included arms held by any militia or paramilitary group regardless of religion.
It’s week 142 (two years, eight months and three weeks) of Putin’s 3 days to Kiev invasion of Ukraine. For all of the 700,000 casualties*, 3558 tanks, 1744 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 4986 Armored Fighting Vehicles, ~1000 APCs/Engineering Vehicles/Command Post Vehicles, 1282 Artillery pieces, 477 MLRS, and sundry Hundreds of other vehicles and equipment, the Russians only control about 5% of Ukraine. Hell, they don’t even control all of the Oblasts they ‘annexed’ last year, in fact they control less of Kherson Oblast than they did when the sham referendum was held.
It’s gotten so bad for Putin the Russian army is using North Korean troops as cannon fodder in Kursk Oblast to try to stem a Ukrainian incursion into that part of Russia. Around two brigades of North Korean troops were sent to far eastern Russia for training and equipping about 6 weeks ago. The first Nork casualties were reported last week, and several have reportedly defected to Ukraine.
I feel I should mention that if, and as of right now it’s a big IF, any of these NK troops get back to NK, they are headed directly to a camp for the rest of their miserable lives. Why? because they’ve seen how the rest of the world lives. The information control in North Korea is complete. If the State does not want you to know something, you do not know it. The 10,000 or so Norks in Russia however. . . What’s the saying about genies and bottles?
The Norks have also sent around 100 self-propelled artillery pieces for the Russians to use. The issue with the Nork arty is that it’s a different caliber, 170mm, than anything the Russian tubes use. It also takes forever and ten minutes to emplace, aim, fire, and unemplace. In other words, it is highly susceptible to counter-battery fire and drone strikes. In other, simpler words, nearly useless in the current Ukraine battlefield.
Speaking of Kursk Oblast, the UAF have taken several thousand square kilometers of territory, including the Gazprom natural gas pumping facilities at Sudzha. The Russians and their NK allies have tried very hard to take that territory back in the past few days/week. While they have managed to regain some land, the majority of the attacks have been defeated. A total of 500 vehicles and several thousand men were lost on 3 consecutive days in meat wave attacks.
Frankly, I’m still of my old Cold War mindset that the only good Russian is a dead Russian, and wish the Ukrainians all the luck in the world. I am also of the mindset that as long as there are no US boots on the ground there, we should be helping them as much as possible. This is an existential threat to a country we are treaty-bound to aid in the case of an invasion. I realize that some of you hold differing ideas about the war in Ukraine, and that’s your prerogative. We can disagree and still be friends.
*The 700,000 casualty number is on the low side of the estimated range. I have seen numbers as high as 1.2 mm and as low as 650,000. It includes what the Russians call gruz 200 (cargo 200 or deceased soldiers), severely wounded and sick troops who are unable to return to the front. Since WWII, the accepted ratio of KIA to WIA is about 1-4. The appalling lack of battlefield triage and care on the Russian side puts that number closer to 2-3. The US had a ratio of about 1-10.7 during the GWOT for reference. This casualty rate has, of late, exceeded the replacement rate, that is there are more Russian casualties occuring in Ukraine than births across Russia. That is a demographic disaster in the making.
Israel is still absolutely curbstomping both Hamas and Hezbollah. Every time either appoints new leadership, Israel plays a game of Whack- Fuck with them. Of late, the IDF has been taking out Hezb figure who were involved in the Beirut Barracks bombing. Good on them. . .
Since my last piece about that particular shit sandwich, we’ve found out that one of the targets Israel hit in Iran was a clandestine nuclear weapons facility. It seems the facility in question was some sort of assembly area and it is now all but completely destroyed.
We also found out that the Israelis managed to take out all of Iran’s relatively modern air defense systems. I say relatively, because the bulk of the Iranian ADA was Russian built S-300 system. Prior to the Israeli/Hamas conflict, Iran has four of those systems, now, well, they have exactly zero.
The CCP has been flexing a bit in the Pacific. In the weeks leading up to the US elections, they repeatedly violated the Taiwanese ADIZ and circled the island with their navy and coast guard. Meanwhile, the US just approved $567m in new military aid for the Taiwanese.
They also attacked a Philippine naval vessel trying to resupply the Philippine ship/base at Second Thomas shoal. Second Thomas is part of the Spratly chain and inside of the Philippines exclusive economic zone. The Chinese claim it as theirs based on the name of the body of water, the South China Sea, and not much more. I’m sure most of you have seen the 9 dash map.
The entire claim is ridiculous. Under international law, coastal countries have sovereign control out to 12 miles and an exclusive economic zone of up to 200 miles. Under Maritime law, and World Court rulings, none of China’s territorial claims are valid. Sooner or later it’s going to wind up in a shooting match. I just hope we’re ready.
On the lighter side, the famous deer in Nara park in Japan are in the news. The deer, much accustomed to people, are starting to get aggressive with tourists. The park, a 502-hectare sanctuary designated as a national treasure, is home to around 1,400 free-roaming deer, and some of the city’s most famous landmarks, including Todaiji Temple. Last year there were 5 documented injuries caused by the deer, this year there have already been 35.
“We do not think the deer are becoming more aggressive towards people, but there has been an increase in incidents,” said Yumiko O’Donnell, of the Nara Prefectural Government’s Tourism Bureau. “More tourists are coming back to Nara Park after the pandemic. So it is possible that after a relatively quiet time, the deer have been surprised to see many more people”. Nature, red in tooth and claw. Even in the Land of the Rising Sun.
This next, and last, item is a bit um, gross. While trying to get to the bottom of a completely unrelated topic your editor ran into an odd set of facts. One I really wish I hadn’t, but one that explains a lot. Consanguinity, that is inbreeding or cousin marriage is far more common across the Ummah, or Muslim world than it is in any other region. By a lot.
Pakistan leads the way with 61% of marriages being between first cousins. Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, the Sudans and Afghanistan are all at 50%. Mauritania, Iraq, Iran and Yemen are all in the 40% range, with most of the remainder in the 25-39% range. The numbers fall in the far eastern Muslim states like Indonesia where they have a consanguinity rate of less than 15% and Malaysia with less than 5%.
For reference, America’s hat, Canada, has a 1.5% consanguinity rate, while the US has a less than 0.1% rate.
But what does it mean? Consanguinity is linked to a whole host of issues. Children of consanguineous marriages are twice as likely to have genetic disorders than children of non-related couples. These disorders include thalassaemias (a blood disorder), cystic fibrosis, Down’s syndrome, and infantile cerebral palsy. Consanguineous births are also at a higher rate of congenital malformations, such as congenital heart diseases, renal diseases, and rare blood disorders.
The Knesset, the Israeli parliament, has passed legislation banning the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East from Israeli controlled territory. From the Times of Israel:
MKs voted 92 to 10 to approve a law barring UNRWA from operating in Israeli territory, and 87-9 in favor of another measure curtailing UNRWA’s activities in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank by banning state authorities from having any contact with the agency.
Without coordination with Israel, it will be almost impossible for UNRWA to work in Gaza or the West Bank, since Jerusalem would no longer be issuing entrance permits to those territories or allowing coordination with the IDF. Israel also currently controls access to Gaza from Egypt, with Israeli forces deployed along the border between them.
Founded in 1948, shortly after the Israeli war of independence, UNRWA is a U.N. organization established to provide aid to Palestinian Arab refugees in the West Bank Judea and Samaria, Gaza, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria. It is the only individualized refugee program run by the UN and it is also the only one that does not have settlement of the refugees in question as part of its charter.
In fact, there are more Arab refugees registered with UNRWA now, by a factor of 10, than there were in 1948. What’s more, UNRWA seeks to prolong refugee status for those under its umbrella. According to the UNRWA website, “More than 2 million registered Palestine refugees live in Jordan… Most, but not all, have full citizenship.” While I’m no expert, wouldn’t you say that having full citizenship in the country you reside be the definition of not a refugee?
— The Mossad: Satirical and Awesome (@TheMossadIL) October 29, 2024
It gets worse though, a fairly large proportion of Arab UNRWA employees are Hamas terrorists. Of the 12,000 local UNRWA workers, at least 440 are part of the Hamas military wing, another 2,000 are active Hamas members and more than 7,000 of the remainder have 1st degree relatives who are Hamas members. Those ratios are much higher than the Gazan population at large. Several senior UNRWA officials have been identified as Hamas members and participants of the 10/7 attack. Most of them have been neutralized by the IDF like Mohammed Abu Itiwi here.
You mean the guy that was responsible for this?
The @UN “employee” in question is a Hamas Nukhba commander, Mohammad Abu Itiwi, who murdered and kidnapped young women and men during the October 7 massacre. Itiwi was employed by @UNRWA in July 2022 and committed these crimes… https://t.co/IqErQtGKpxpic.twitter.com/fsJXG1hHgx
Additionally, the IDF has documented Hamas terror tunnels and other underground facilities beneath dozens of UNRWA facilities like hospitals and schools. There are several videos of 10/7 that show Hamas terrorists transporting captives and bodies stolen from Israel to al Shifa hospital in Gaza. You know al Shifa hospital, it’s the one that a Hamas dud fell one and Israel got blamed for it. It also has a Hamas command node built underneath.
Of course the ‘international community’ is up in arms about this. If UNRWA cannot operate in Israeli controlled areas, it effectively ceases to exist. How else are they going to launder their terror support monies?
Israeli ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, made a statement regarding Israeli cooperation with international aid organizations and why UNRWA was being singled out.
Today, in a media statement before the Security Council session, I addressed the legislation that limits the activities of UNRWA. We will continue to cooperate with humanitarian organizations, but not with those who cooperate with Hamas terrorists. pic.twitter.com/pnr1tHAiRK
Frankly, I am a bit surprised it took this long for the Knesset to take this action. But then again, prior to 10/7 Israel kind of cared about what the international community thought. Since then however, it looks like the Israelis have learned a hard lesson, that survival is more important than international praise or condemnation.
