It has just been announced that Ukrainian leadership has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire in the ongoing Russian invasion. The agreement was reached during talks between the US and Ukraine in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The Ukrainian acceptance is dependent on Russian acceptance of the ceasefire terms.
It has been a bit more than three years since Russia invaded Ukraine unprovoked.
As part of the ceasefire agreement, the US will restart intelligence sharing and weapons shipments to Ukraine. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz announced weapons shipments would restart immediately.
It also includes a ‘minerals deal’.
Keep in mind, this ceasefire is completely dependent on the concurrence of the aggressor, Russia. Whether or not Putin will accept this deal is unclear. Based on nearly all of his past comments and writings – and those of his proxies – it is very unlikely that he will accept the terms of this ceasefire.
1000 days. That’s how long the three day Special Military Operation in Ukraine has been going on. That’s 142.8 weeks or 38.8 months or 2.75 years. I know I gave a bit of an update a few days ago, but there has been a significant development that needs to be discussed.
The Biden-Harris administration finally made the decision to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS and other Western-built long range strike munitions, namely Scalp EG/Storm Shadow, inside of Russia proper. Frankly, this was overdue, by a year or more. The proximate cause was the use of North Korean troops by the Kremlin, or at least that is what is being said.
Media reports indicate that the UAF fired six of the 190 mile range ballistic missiles at a target near Bryansk. The 67th GRAU Arsenal, a critical ammunition storage facility was hit. Unfortunately, Twitter is still not embedding properly, so you’ll have to click thru to see the videos.
The Russian MOD is claiming they shot down 5 of the 6 and the damage was caused by debris from the intercepts. This claim is laughable on its face. The Russians have trouble shooting down any ballistic missiles with the air defense systems they are using. Based on the video and images I’ve seen, there were several impacts and much of the storage is just gone. Locals report hearing several missiles and specifically say they were not drones. We’ll have to wait for satellite images to be sure of the type and extent of the damage though.
I want to be very clear about something, the Ukrainian use of these missiles is not going to start WWIII, it is not going to cause Russia to use nukes and it is not going to widen the war in any way. You know how I know this? Putin is neither crazy nor suicidal. He’s gotten the escalation management mid-wits at State to brown their trousers every other time he rattled the nuclear saber, why not do it again. Here’s a list of Putin’s ‘red lines’ and the reaction to them being crossed:
As you can see, none of the ‘red lines’ crossed so far have led to anything other than the Russians targeting more civilian targets. This one will be no different.
For those of you who will point out the facts that Putin signed new legislation about the doctrinal use of nuclear weapons and what is and what isn’t considered an act of war, he signed the same documents back on 25 September. Same language, same saber-rattling tone. Given the state of the Russian economy – a kilo of potatoes is up by 70% beets by 60%, bread 40% and overall inflation is north of 8% since the beginning of the year – I wouldn’t be surprised to learn he actually signed the same documents.
It’s week 142 (two years, eight months and three weeks) of Putin’s 3 days to Kiev invasion of Ukraine. For all of the 700,000 casualties*, 3558 tanks, 1744 Infantry Fighting Vehicles, 4986 Armored Fighting Vehicles, ~1000 APCs/Engineering Vehicles/Command Post Vehicles, 1282 Artillery pieces, 477 MLRS, and sundry Hundreds of other vehicles and equipment, the Russians only control about 5% of Ukraine. Hell, they don’t even control all of the Oblasts they ‘annexed’ last year, in fact they control less of Kherson Oblast than they did when the sham referendum was held.
It’s gotten so bad for Putin the Russian army is using North Korean troops as cannon fodder in Kursk Oblast to try to stem a Ukrainian incursion into that part of Russia. Around two brigades of North Korean troops were sent to far eastern Russia for training and equipping about 6 weeks ago. The first Nork casualties were reported last week, and several have reportedly defected to Ukraine.
I feel I should mention that if, and as of right now it’s a big IF, any of these NK troops get back to NK, they are headed directly to a camp for the rest of their miserable lives. Why? because they’ve seen how the rest of the world lives. The information control in North Korea is complete. If the State does not want you to know something, you do not know it. The 10,000 or so Norks in Russia however. . . What’s the saying about genies and bottles?
The Norks have also sent around 100 self-propelled artillery pieces for the Russians to use. The issue with the Nork arty is that it’s a different caliber, 170mm, than anything the Russian tubes use. It also takes forever and ten minutes to emplace, aim, fire, and unemplace. In other words, it is highly susceptible to counter-battery fire and drone strikes. In other, simpler words, nearly useless in the current Ukraine battlefield.
Speaking of Kursk Oblast, the UAF have taken several thousand square kilometers of territory, including the Gazprom natural gas pumping facilities at Sudzha. The Russians and their NK allies have tried very hard to take that territory back in the past few days/week. While they have managed to regain some land, the majority of the attacks have been defeated. A total of 500 vehicles and several thousand men were lost on 3 consecutive days in meat wave attacks.
Frankly, I’m still of my old Cold War mindset that the only good Russian is a dead Russian, and wish the Ukrainians all the luck in the world. I am also of the mindset that as long as there are no US boots on the ground there, we should be helping them as much as possible. This is an existential threat to a country we are treaty-bound to aid in the case of an invasion. I realize that some of you hold differing ideas about the war in Ukraine, and that’s your prerogative. We can disagree and still be friends.
*The 700,000 casualty number is on the low side of the estimated range. I have seen numbers as high as 1.2 mm and as low as 650,000. It includes what the Russians call gruz 200 (cargo 200 or deceased soldiers), severely wounded and sick troops who are unable to return to the front. Since WWII, the accepted ratio of KIA to WIA is about 1-4. The appalling lack of battlefield triage and care on the Russian side puts that number closer to 2-3. The US had a ratio of about 1-10.7 during the GWOT for reference. This casualty rate has, of late, exceeded the replacement rate, that is there are more Russian casualties occuring in Ukraine than births across Russia. That is a demographic disaster in the making.
Israel is still absolutely curbstomping both Hamas and Hezbollah. Every time either appoints new leadership, Israel plays a game of Whack- Fuck with them. Of late, the IDF has been taking out Hezb figure who were involved in the Beirut Barracks bombing. Good on them. . .
Since my last piece about that particular shit sandwich, we’ve found out that one of the targets Israel hit in Iran was a clandestine nuclear weapons facility. It seems the facility in question was some sort of assembly area and it is now all but completely destroyed.
We also found out that the Israelis managed to take out all of Iran’s relatively modern air defense systems. I say relatively, because the bulk of the Iranian ADA was Russian built S-300 system. Prior to the Israeli/Hamas conflict, Iran has four of those systems, now, well, they have exactly zero.
The CCP has been flexing a bit in the Pacific. In the weeks leading up to the US elections, they repeatedly violated the Taiwanese ADIZ and circled the island with their navy and coast guard. Meanwhile, the US just approved $567m in new military aid for the Taiwanese.
They also attacked a Philippine naval vessel trying to resupply the Philippine ship/base at Second Thomas shoal. Second Thomas is part of the Spratly chain and inside of the Philippines exclusive economic zone. The Chinese claim it as theirs based on the name of the body of water, the South China Sea, and not much more. I’m sure most of you have seen the 9 dash map.
The entire claim is ridiculous. Under international law, coastal countries have sovereign control out to 12 miles and an exclusive economic zone of up to 200 miles. Under Maritime law, and World Court rulings, none of China’s territorial claims are valid. Sooner or later it’s going to wind up in a shooting match. I just hope we’re ready.
On the lighter side, the famous deer in Nara park in Japan are in the news. The deer, much accustomed to people, are starting to get aggressive with tourists. The park, a 502-hectare sanctuary designated as a national treasure, is home to around 1,400 free-roaming deer, and some of the city’s most famous landmarks, including Todaiji Temple. Last year there were 5 documented injuries caused by the deer, this year there have already been 35.
“We do not think the deer are becoming more aggressive towards people, but there has been an increase in incidents,” said Yumiko O’Donnell, of the Nara Prefectural Government’s Tourism Bureau. “More tourists are coming back to Nara Park after the pandemic. So it is possible that after a relatively quiet time, the deer have been surprised to see many more people”. Nature, red in tooth and claw. Even in the Land of the Rising Sun.
This next, and last, item is a bit um, gross. While trying to get to the bottom of a completely unrelated topic your editor ran into an odd set of facts. One I really wish I hadn’t, but one that explains a lot. Consanguinity, that is inbreeding or cousin marriage is far more common across the Ummah, or Muslim world than it is in any other region. By a lot.
Pakistan leads the way with 61% of marriages being between first cousins. Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, the Sudans and Afghanistan are all at 50%. Mauritania, Iraq, Iran and Yemen are all in the 40% range, with most of the remainder in the 25-39% range. The numbers fall in the far eastern Muslim states like Indonesia where they have a consanguinity rate of less than 15% and Malaysia with less than 5%.
For reference, America’s hat, Canada, has a 1.5% consanguinity rate, while the US has a less than 0.1% rate.
But what does it mean? Consanguinity is linked to a whole host of issues. Children of consanguineous marriages are twice as likely to have genetic disorders than children of non-related couples. These disorders include thalassaemias (a blood disorder), cystic fibrosis, Down’s syndrome, and infantile cerebral palsy. Consanguineous births are also at a higher rate of congenital malformations, such as congenital heart diseases, renal diseases, and rare blood disorders.
Former Marine Paul Whelan and WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich have been released from Russian custody as part of a complex, multi-country prisoner swap.
Whelan has been in Russian custody since January 2019, and Gershkovich since March 2023. Whelan is serving a 20-year sentence, and Gershkovich was recently sentenced to 16 years by a Russian court. Both had been held and convicted on espionage charges.
The deal also included the release of a British journalist, Vladimir Kara-Murza, who had been sentenced to 20 years in a Siberian penal colony.
The Russians are getting a GRU assassin, Vadim Krasikov, who was serving a life sentence in a German Prison for the assassination of Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, a Georgian-born Chechen dissident, in broad daylight in a Berlin park. Also included in the deal are 4 un-named Russians being held in the US on cybercrime charges and possibly 2 deep cover Russian agents that were caught in Slovenia a few years back.
I was having a conversation with AuntiE today about the possibility of a hot war between NATO and Russia earlier today. She shared an article from Zero Hedge about statements from the current NATO naval chief, Nederlander Rob Bauer. Bauer seems to think there will be a shooting war within the next 20 years.
I tend to disagree.
The ‘three day Special Military Operation’ has put to rest the myth of Russian strength. We are now going on 100 weeks of that particular adventurism. In that 100 weeks, Russia has had somewhere between 250,000 and 500,000 casualties, lost nearly 75% of its pre-invasion tank force, had a near-successful mutiny and is now forced to buy arms and ammunition from Iran and North Korea.
Am I saying Putin, and be crystal clear that he’s the one and only one calling the shots, wouldn’t start something with a NATO country? No, there’s always a possibility, however slight, that he’d make that miscalculation. What I am saying is that even if he did, he’d lose. Badly. And relatively quickly. Hell, the Texas of Europe, Poland, could be in Moscow in a month.
A poorly armed and equipped Ukraine has forced Russian forces back to a relatively narrow strip along the Black and Azov sea coasts. Right now, during the bezdorizhzhia, or mud season, the lines are mostly static. I expect that to change some once everything freezes hard enough for maneuver warfare to begin again in earnest.
What does have me concerned is the CCP. Chairman Xi has made it as clear as he can that annexing Formosa is his top priority. The recent election there, the anti-CCP party won handily, won’t help. It is widely considered that Xi took the results personally. I feel the need to remind everyone that the US is bound by legislation to aid Taiwan in the event of a CCP attack.
The PLARF (People’s Liberation Army Rocket Forces) have missiles that can hit any of the US bases in the Pacific ocean. That renders Guam, Kwajalein, Diego Garcia and the bases in Korea and Japan all but useless for logistical purposes.
The distances in the Pacific are immense. Los Angeles and Hawaii are 2,231 nautical miles apart. Hawaii to Japan is 3,800 nautical miles. The distance between Los Angeles and Tokyo by cargo ship is 5,081 Nautical Miles. For reference, the distance between Halifax and Southampton England, the most common WWII convoy route, is 2,624 nautical miles. This creates a logistical nightmare.
I think the only thing holding Xi back at the moment is a major corruption scandal in the PLA. I wrote a little about that scandal in the View a couple of weeks back. It certainly isn’t anything POTATUS has done or is doing. Sooner or later, he’ll get his ducks in a row and go for Formosa.
Iran and its proxies across the Sahel are flexing. While I’m sure that Israel can take care of both Hamas and Hezbollah by itself, I am concerned about a wider regional war. Iran launched attacks in Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan and Pakistan last week. Pakistan retaliated with a limited strike a few days later, but the tensions are still very high between the two.
The Houthi are continuing their attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandab strait and now in the Gulf of Aden. One of the latest strikes was against the US owned and flagged MV Ocean Jazz. The 10662 DWT heavy lift vessel was previously chartered by the US Navy’s Military Sealift Command.
The only bright spot about the current issue with the Houthi is the AEGIS system is getting its first real-world testing. The eggheads are using the data collected from each intercept to improve the system. All those improvements are uploaded across the fleet and to the AEGIS ashore batteries. That little fact may come to be useful if the CCP decides it’s gonna get froggy with the Taiwanese.
Of the three major hot-spots, and yes there are others, I think Iran and the Middle East are the most likely to expand. Let’s be honest, the Ayatollahs version of Islam is little better than a death cult. They aren’t what I’d call rational actors and cannot be expected to do the things that a traditional geopolitical actor would do.
That said, the one that keeps me up nights is China. Between the distances involved, the near-peer abilities of China and what Vizzini said, it will quickly become a bloody and expensive war.
Featured Image: West Canada Creek near Nobleboro NY. West Canada creek is one of the premier trout streams in the southern Adirondack region.
As the Russian war of aggression 3 day Special Military Operation in Ukraine enters its 99th week, the Russian Air Force suffered the loss of two aircraft yesterday. A Beriev A-50 “Mainstay” AEW&C plane -think AWACS- and an Illushin IL-22 “Coot” ISR/airborne command and control plane were hit over the sea of Azov. The Mainstay was shot down, while the heavily damaged Coot managed to make a landing at a nearby airfield.
Last night Russia lost with high certainty a Beriev A-50 airborne early warning and control plane over the Sea of Azov. Russian channels focused in aviation confirm the loss. The plane costing around 350 million USD was vital for air asset coordination in the entire region.
In addition a Russian Ilyushin Il-20M was also hit in this area and signaled mayday, including the attempt for an emergency landing in Anapa, Russia, as well as the request for ambulances. There is no information that the plane arrived at the destination but even if then it was certainly severely damaged. The cause for both incidents are still a matter of speculation, but the fact that two valuable Russian birds got hit at the same time and the same region, make enemy fire the most plausible explanation.
This is a costly loss for the Russians, as there were only 8 of the A-50 and 11 of the IL-22m air-frames ever built. It is believed that Lt. General Oleg Pchela, commander of the long-range aviation of the Russian Air Force, was on board the A-50 aircraft destroyed by Ukraine.
I’m seeing three theories being bandied about regarding the shoot-downs. First is it was a Russian ‘friendly fire’ incident. I personally find that hard to swallow as we are talking about two C&C birds that are both linked into the Russian ADA net.
The second theory floating around is some sort of SAM trap executed by Ukraine. While this is possible, sources I trust say the interception by Ukraine has would have been at or near the max range of the Patriot PAC2 missile and outside the range of any of the other ADA missiles Ukraine has access to.
The third theory, and the one I think most plausible, involves an air-to-air kill with UA SU-27s or MiG 29s armed with AIM 120 AMRAAM missiles. The damage to the tail section of the COOT looks like the damage I’d expect from that particular warhead vice the PAC2 warhead. Anyway, FAFO
The IRGC took direct credit for a complex missile and drone attack on targets in Iraqi Kurdistan and Northern Syria. The IRGC said it was targeting the “headquarters of spies” and “anti-Iranian terrorist gatherings in parts of the region” with ballistic missiles. The sites struck were close to US locations in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. No US facilities were struck and there weren’t any US casualties, but the strikes were called ‘imprecise and reckless’ by one US official.
I really wish someone other than POTATUS or the Prostate kid was in charge. This kind of escalation really needs to be answered, as in Operation Praying Mantis answered. Appeasement never, ever works.
As Admiral Painter said in Red October “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.”
**** As I was getting ready to publish this piece, some new information crossed the transom. The IRGC struck Baluch separatist bases in Pakistan. As I’m sure you know, the Pakistanis have fucking nukes, several dozen of them. What Iran is thinking, I don’t know.
Iran, this past week:
• Directly attacked Iraq • Directly attacked Syria • Directly attacked Pakistan • Proxy attacked US troops in Syria • Proxy attacked US troops in Iraq • Proxy attacked multiple foreign ships off the coast of Yemen, including American ships
SCOTUS is set to hear oral arguments in Loper Bright v Raimundo and Relentless v Department of Commerce. At issue is a regulatory ruling forcing commercial fishermen to pay the salaries of compliance observers on their boats. The payment requirement is based on an interpretation of federal law by the National Marine Fisheries Service. These two cases are the biggest of the January term.
These cases stem from a 1984 case called Chevron v National Resources Defense Council, Inc. The ruling in that case created what is known as the Chevron deference. Chevron deference consists of a two-part test that is deferential to government agencies: first, whether Congress has spoken directly to the precise issue at question, and second, “whether the agency’s answer is based on a permissible construction of the statute.”
While I am not a lawyer, it’s my opinion that Chevron was badly decided. The Chevron deference is what created the modern regulatory state. It’s way past time to overturn Chevron and rein in the regulatory state in all its forms. This may be the Court that does just that. Here’s hoping. . .
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Featured Image: Oswego NY harbor lighthouse in winter. For reference, the breakwall that the wave is breaking over is 15′ tall.
Putin’s war in Ukraine is now in week 97. It started as a 3 week special military operation. Of late, mainly because of the bezdorizhzhia, or time of roadlessness, there has been little movement on the front lines. Ukraine is waging deep battle far behind the front lines and shaping the battlefield for winter. The Russians are continuing their terror missile and drone attacks on civilian targets. Of note is the fact that of 10 Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ missiles fired at Ukraine on New Years Day, all 10 were intercepted by the US/Western supplied PAC3 Patriot ADA system.
I know some of you out there disagree with me on the Ukraine situation, but the simple fact is all of the foot dragging by the collective west is dragging us closer and closer to WWIII. And no, that is not hyperbole. Xi, the Ayatollahs, Kim in NK and to a lesser degree Putin all see the lack of resolve in Ukraine as weakness. Weakness they can and will exploit.
South Korea ordered the evacuation of a pair of islands near the maritime border with the North. The evacuation of Yeonpyeong-do and Baeknyeong-do was ordered in response to North Korea firing some 200 artillery rounds into the maritime buffer zone near one of the islands.
The blue line, the Northern Limit line was established as part of the 1953 armistice. In 1999, the North unilaterally claimed the waters between the blue and red lines on the map. This week’s events were set into motion by a North Korean ship crossing the Northern Limit Line on Monday and being turned back by South Korean troops firing warning shots. North Korea later said it conducted firing drills as a “natural response” to military actions by South Korea’s “military gangsters” in recent days. It also threatened an “unprecedented strong response” if Seoul continued to make provocative moves.
Huh, didn’t I just mention Kim above? While artillery exchanges are not unknown in that particular area, what’s different this time is the stated posture of the Norks regarding the ROKs. In remarks to a major party meeting last week, Kim Jung Un said Pyongyang was changing its policy towards the South, which it now sees as an enemy state. Although, I wouldn’t be surprised if the change is a response to the lack-of-response by the ROK and US regarding the dozens of ballistic missile tests this year.
Indian navy commandos responded to a distress call in the Arabian Sea today. The MV Lila Norfolk, a 170000 DWT Liberian flagged bulker, was boarded by pirates off the Somali coast. The crew retreated to the ‘citadel’ and called for help. The commandos were from the Indian naval warship INS Chennai. They boarded and ‘sanitized’ the vessel after flying over from the Chennai.
I’m guessing the Indian response was mainly because Indian nationals made up the bulk of the crew of the Lila Norfolk. Then again, it might be that Modi understands that if trade gets choked off in the Red/Suez it’s going to tank the Indian economy. Either way, the goddamned Indians have had a better response than the US so far.
Abu Taqwa Al Si’adi, the commander of Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba, a powerful Iranian-backed militia based in Iraq and Syria was killed in an airstrike yesterday. Si’adi also served as the deputy director of operations for the Popular Mobilization Forces in what is known as the Baghdad Belts, or the regions surrounding Baghdad.
Thursday’s strike marked just the seventh by the U.S. against the Iranian-backed militias, which have launched 115 attack on U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. The first six U.S. attacks targeted weapons storage facilities, safe houses or vehicles involved in attacks. This was the first to target a commander of the militias.
The U.S. military did not officially confirm the strike, however an anonymous official toldThe Wall Street Journal that the target “had American blood on his hands.”
Oh no, anyway. . .
The keyword for this administration seems to be ‘proportionality’, at least in the Middle East. I would think that means there should have been 115 airstrikes not 7.
“An Air Force B-1B Lancer assigned to Ellsworth Air Force Base crashed at approximately 5:50 p.m. today while attempting to land on the installation. At the time of the accident, it was on a training mission. There were four aircrew on board. All four ejected safely.
A board of officers will investigate the accident.
Additional details will be provided as they become available. For questions regarding this incident, contact the 28th Bomb Wing Public Affairs Office at (605) 385-5056, or by e-mail at 28bw.public.affairs@us.af.mil.“
The Bone has suffered from a number of class A mishaps recently and the entire fleet was grounded in 2019 due to an ejection system issue.
Look, all aircraft are one minor failure away from succumbing to gravity. The more complex the airframe is, the more likely it is that something will go wrong. That said, given that a pretty good portion of the B1 fleet is sitting at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan for financial reasons, I think there might be some maintenance issues.
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Last September, I called this allegation “too bad to check.” Now we can call it “too bad to ignore.” The FBI agent who helped kickstart Operation Crossfire Hurricane and created more than two years of panic over Russia collusion has been arrested today for … wait for it …
A former top FBI official in New York has been arrested over his ties to a Russian oligarch, law enforcement sources told ABC News Monday.
Charles McGonigal, who was the special agent in charge of counterintelligence in the FBI’s New York Field Office, is under arrest over his ties to Oleg Deripaska, a Russian billionaire who has been sanctioned by the United States and criminally charged last year with violating those sanctions. …
McGonigal is charged with violating U.S. sanctions by trying to get Deripaska off the sanctions list.
McGonigal’s status as the FBI’s point man for counterintelligence in its New York field office makes this bad enough. However, as Business Insider reported in September, McGonigal’s efforts helped launch a fruitless two-years-plus “witch hunt” against Donald Trump and his campaign over the kind of collusion with Russia’s oligarchs that McGonigal allegedly conducted himself:
Before his retirement in 2018, McGonigal led the WikiLeaks investigation into Chelsea Manning, busted Bill Clinton’s national security advisor Sandy Berger for removing classified material from a National Archives reading room, and led the search for a Chinese mole inside the CIA. In 2016, when reports surfaced that Russia had hacked the email system of the Democratic National Committee, McGonigal was serving as chief of the cybercrimes section at FBI headquarters in Washington. In that capacity, he was one of the first officials to learn that a Trump campaign official had bragged that the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton, sparking the investigation known as Operation Crossfire Hurricane. Later that year, FBI Director James Comey promoted McGonigal to oversee counterintelligence operations in New York.
The connections go even deeper. The US had sanctions on Deripaska in relation to his connections to Paul Manafort, which turned out to be unrelated to the Trump campaign — an investigation that the Department of Justice dropped until after Trump’s election. Robert Mueller resurrected it to pressure Manafort into turning on Trump, but as it happened, Manafort didn’t have anything to give.
As I wrote at the time, this raises all sorts of questions about what McGonigal has been playing at:
So why would someone who saw a dumb brag by a low-level campaign consultant as a national security risk agree to work with the oligarch playing a role in the supposed conspiracy? If those connections took place after McGonigal’s retirement, it speaks to the risk that McGonigal truly saw from Deripaska. At the very least, it leaves the impression that McGonigal never bought the Russia-collusion theory even as he and his colleagues pursued it for years.
If those connections started before McGonigal’s retirement, though … hoo boy. This comes at the same time that we discover that the FBI actively paid Igor Danchenko as a confidential informant starting in early 2017, even as it became obvious that his claims in the Steele dossier were nonsense — and just a few years after the FBI investigated Danchenko as a suspected Russian-intel operative. That’s an awful lot of apparent collusion between the FBI and a couple of Russians. It leaves us to wonder just where the collusion problem may really have been all along.
Indeed it does. Stay tuned, in other words. Perhaps McGonigal may have more to say on that.
Update: The Associated Press reports that McGonigal has been charged with money laundering as well as attempting to assist Deripaska in a feud with another Russian oligarch:
McGonigal, 54, and the interpreter, Sergey Shestakov, 69, were arrested Saturday. McGonigal was taken into custody after landing at John F. Kennedy International Airport. They are scheduled to appear in court in Manhattan on Monday. Both are being held at a federal jail in Brooklyn.
McGonigal and Shestakov are charged with violating and conspiring to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, conspiring to commit money laundering and money laundering. Shestakov is also charged with making material misstatements to the FBI.
McGonigal was separately charged in federal court in Washington, D.C. with concealing $225,000 in payments he received from an outside source with whom he traveled to Europe.
What part of this involves Operation Crossfire Hurricane? Maybe this part:
The New York indictment alleges that McGonigal was introduced by Shestakov in 2018 to a former Soviet diplomat who functioned as an agent for Deripaska. That person is not identified in court papers but the Justice Department says he was “rumored in public media reports to be a Russian intelligence officer.”
According to the indictment, Shestakov asked McGonigal for his help in getting the daughter of Deripaska’s agent an internship with the New York Police Department. McGonigal agreed, prosecutors say, and told a police department contact that, “I have interest in her father for a number of reasons.”
Or this part, perhaps, rinsed through Albania?
The Justice Department says McGonigal also hid from the FBI key details of a 2017 trip he took to Albania with a former member of that country’s intelligence service who had given him the $225,000.
McGonigal apparently neglected to report these contacts fully, as required for FBI agents generally and counterintelligence officials more specifically.
Like I said earlier … stay tuned. This is going to get ugly for the Bureau and for the DoJ.
Friday, a senior Russian general stationed in Moscow declared that Russia’s goal in Putin’s War was not just to establish a land bridge from Russia to Crimea by conquering all of the Donbas oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk and adding Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Instead, the objective, he claimed, was to take all of Ukraine’s coastline, seize control of Odesa, and establish road and rail connections with the Russian AstroTurfed state of “Transnistria.”
The comments from Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District, seemed to hint that the Kremlin — which has been stymied in its bid to take over the Ukrainian capital — still wants to conquer wide swaths of its neighbor’s land, and potentially threaten the nations that lie beyond. They drew swift condemnation from Moldova, where residents have worried since the beginning of the war they could be next in the Kremlin’s crosshairs.
Minnekayev said capturing Ukraine’s east and south would create a “land corridor” to the Crimean Peninsula — which the Kremlin annexed in 2014 — and give Moscow influence over “vital objects of the Ukrainian economy,” according to the Russia state media outlet Tass. It would also provide “another way out to Transnistria,” Minnekayev said, referring to a thin strip of land that runs along Moldova’s border with Ukraine that functions as a separate nation, though it is not recognized as such, even by Russia.
…
Mimicking language used to justify Moscow’s initial invasion of Ukraine, Minnekayev indicated he was concerned by the “oppression of the Russian-speaking population” in the Transnistria enclave. The Moldovan government released a statement calling the accusations “unacceptable,” adding that the comment would “lead to increased tensions and mistrust in society.”
What the hell is Transnistria? Good question. Is it one of the gender choices that are now available? Or is it a type of swamp rat with sexual identity confusion?
Transnistria is a “breakaway” republic the Russians carved out of Moldova in 1992.
Transnistria is about one-third Russian speakers, and the decision by the Moldovan government to use the Roman alphabet (the Cyrillic alphabet was imposed under communism) and make Moldovan (a Romanian dialect) the official language caused Russia to do what it later did in Ukraine in 2014. It created a civil war that Russia used as a pretext to send in troops. It is now a loyal little toady state that has asked Moscow to annex it.
Facially, the statement by General Minnekayev is stupid. Russia does not have the combat power to carry out the plan Minnekayev laid out. It is being pressed hard around Kherson, it has yet to capture Mariupol, and it is involved in a 1915-style battle in northern Donbas. Monday, there was a series of events in Transnistria that foreshadowed a new gambit by Putin to change the nature of the war. He wants to expand it.
Monday started with an “RPG attack” on the ministry of state security. Notably, no one was injured.
#Moldova 🇲🇩: A rocket attack was carried out against the "Ministry of State Security" in #Transnistria —near the border with #Ukraine 🇺🇦.
The attack was apparently carried out with an RPG-22 "Netto" and a noteable RMG (bunk-buster derivative of RPG-27/RShG-1) rocket launchers. pic.twitter.com/uTqX8jdJzT
Before any investigation was conducted, the culprit was identified
The de-facto head of breakaway #Transnistria in #Moldova claimed that the "terrorist attacks can be traced to Ukraine".
Yet, the RPG-27 "Tavolga" used at yesterday's attack in Tiaspol is used by forces of Russia and Transnistria. And not of #Ukraine.https://t.co/7FZPamM0OO
Monday evening, antennae serving a pro-Russian media outlet were destroyed. But, again, no one was harmed.
MOLDOVA: From the sublime to the ridiculous. Following yesterday’s ‘RPG attack’ on Ministry of state Security buildings in Russian occupied Transnistria, Russia now reports that 'unknown saboteurs’ have attacked a RU language radio tower in Mayak on Moldova's UKR border. pic.twitter.com/SQHv2rqQ4q
Yet a third attack, this one on a minor airfield that caused no damage or casualties, was announced by the Russian Defense Ministry’s pet blogger, @wargonzo, who just happened to be there.
⚡️ Exclusive ⚡️ The airfield in the PMR was hit with NATO ammunition ⚡️
In short order, we see a lot happening. Transnistria closed its borders, placed its security forces on high alert, and transferred command and control of paramilitary forces to the armed forces.
In breakaway #Transnistria, #Moldova, the separatist authorities announced that they would set up check points on roads leading to the region's cities and will conduct searches of vehicles and passengers:https://t.co/4lQg5vPM77
In the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova, units of the operational group of Russian troops have been put on alert ("Full" combat readiness). The security forces have been transferred to a reinforced mode of service,–UA General Staff, 18:00EET https://t.co/P5aht3E0WH
The Moldovan Military has been put on “Alert” in the Border Regions with Transnistria and additional Security Measures and Patrols are being conducted at Checkpoints, Moldovan Forces are also reportedly being deployed to Critical/Sensitive Infrastructure throughout the Country. pic.twitter.com/sFbuo71XlN
Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Andrey Rudenko, ominously expressed hope that Russia wouldn’t have to roll up its sleeves and sort things out.
A senior Russian general said last week Moscow could try to capture Ukraine's entire southern coast to reach Transnistria.
It doesn't look like Russia has the strength for that – they haven't been able to advance past Mykolaiv – but raises the already high sensitivies on this.
Russian forces around Kherson are under immense pressure and show the initial signs of collapse. As I pointed out in Ukraine’s Future Depends on These Three Fights That Russia Must Win, Kherson is critical terrain for Russia if it wants a land bridge to Crimea. It is equally vital for the more grandiose scheme of linking up to Transnistria. If Kherson is liberated, the whole fight for Donbas becomes problematic. There are about 1,400 Russian troops in Transnistria. Transnistria boasts an army of about 5,000 with another 20,000 reserves. We don’t know what “reserves” and “Transnistria” look like, but if they are similar to the Russian reserve forces (Russia Calling 100,000 Reservists to Active Duty and Moving Wagner Group From Syria to Deal With Ukraine Manpower Crunch), they won’t generate much combat power.
That said, if something like 20,000 troops attack towards Odesa, Ukraine has to react, and they probably react by pulling troops away from Kherson and even Donbas to deal with the threat. The forces from Transnistria will be thrashed, and then what?
The president of Moldova, Maia Sandu, is trying to tamp things down, but it remains to be seen if Russia is interested in de-escalation.
Maia Sandu made some statements on situation in Transnistria
📍#Moldova has no plans to blockade #Transnistria, but supports peaceful dialogue and diplomatic solutions
📍Moldova is increasing the level of security of state institutions
Moldova is a part of the NATO partnership for peace program but has scrupulously maintained its neutrality. It doesn’t even allow its troops to participate in NATO exercises. But there are some interesting movements afoot. A week ago, Moldova applied to join the EU.
Today #Moldova🇲🇩 submitted the 1st questionnaire for #EU membership to EU Ambassador @JanisMazeiks as we take a step closer to our accession bid to the EU🇪🇺. We are ready to do our part swiftly and diligently to give Moldova a chance for a better, safer & more prosperous future. pic.twitter.com/04SMFKKa40
If Ukraine, as predicted, crushed the military thrust from Transnistria, it could shift the balance of power in the Donbas fight, and it probably wouldn’t put Transnistria in any danger. On the other hand, the Russians claim that Romania is about to invade Transnistria.
Russian commentator Sergei Markov warns that Romania could attack Transnistria with support from NATO and Ukraine
Romania's aim will be to repress all pro-Russian voices. The "Russians are being persecuted" narrative that the Russian Defence Ministry revived is gaining steam
Arguably, Putin’s War, that is, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is the first war that is thoroughly integrated with social media. By way of social media posts, we often get Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) while the target is still smoking. We’ve seen prisoners taken and war crimes committed, aircraft shot down, and turrets popped off tanks. The combination of geocoding media and GIS software has made it possible for private citizens to catalog equipment losses and plot the location of units. Social media has driven the narrative about the war and had much more of a role in shaping public opinion than any of the traditional media.
We also see a passive tool transitioning into an offensive weapon to help shape public opinion, even in totalitarian states like Russia. In early April, this video surfaced. The backstory is that Russian troops steal cell phones from Ukrainian citizens and use them to communicate with their families. In this case, a Russian soldier was killed, and a Ukrainian used the phone to contact the dead Russian’s parents to let them know that their son was dead. It is a bit ugly to watch and was heavily circulated by pro-Russia Twitter accounts as though hurting feelings was vaguely comparable to the sacking of cities and raping of women and children.
Still, no matter how crude the call, it still had an impact. The family knows their son is dead. They know his body is not going to be recovered. They will talk about this with other people. As the time lag between the phone call and the official confirmation grows, some of their anger will be focused on their own government. Young men will hear this story and think twice about reporting for conscription, and their parents, relatives, and friends will aid them in that endeavor.
As in so many cases, something that started out ad hoc can be organized into a coherent action program.
Ukrainian officials have run more than 8,600 facial recognition searches on dead or captured Russian soldiers in the 50 days since Moscow’s invasion began, using the scans to identify bodies and contact hundreds of their families in what may be one of the most gruesome applications of the technology to date.
Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for the latest updates on Russia’s war in Ukraine. The country’s IT Army, a volunteer force of hackers and activists that takes its direction from the Ukrainian government, says it has used those identifications to inform the families of the deaths of 582 Russians, including by sending them photos of the abandoned corpses.
The Ukrainians champion the use of face-scanning software from the U.S. tech firm Clearview AI as a brutal but effective way to stir up dissent inside Russia, discourage other fighters and hasten an end to a devastating war.
There are dissenters.
But some military and technology analysts worry that the strategy could backfire, inflaming anger over a shock campaign directed at mothers who may be thousands of miles from the drivers of the Kremlin’s war machine.
The West’s solidarity with Ukraine makes it tempting to support such a radical act designed to capitalize on family grief, said Stephanie Hare, a surveillance researcher in London. But contacting soldiers’ parents, she said, is “classic psychological warfare” and could set a dangerous new standard for future conflicts.
“If it were Russian soldiers doing this with Ukrainian mothers, we might say, ‘Oh, my God, that’s barbaric,’ ” she said. “And is it actually working? Or is it making them say: ‘Look at these lawless, cruel Ukrainians, doing this to our boys?’ ”
…
But officials’ strategy of informing families of their loved ones’ demise has raised concerns that it could anger the same Russians they had hoped to persuade. One national security expert said other Ukrainian actions — holding news conferences with captured Russian soldiers and posting to social media photos and videos showing prisoners of war — have been seen inside Russia not as a welcomed exposure to the truth but as a humiliation by the enemy.
I don’t particularly buy that argument because Ukraine has nothing to lose. They are in a battle for the very existence of their country. If they brown off some Russians by this campaign, what will those Russians do? Invade Ukraine and attempt to erase Ukrainian identity?
Nothing is without risk. Several Ukrainian agencies are already using this facial recognition software for other reasons.
Ukrainian agencies, [Clearview AI’s chief executive, Hoan] Ton-That said, have used the app to confirm the identities of people at military checkpoints and to check whether a Ukrainian is a possible Russian infiltrator or saboteur. He argued that the system could deter Russian soldiers from committing war crimes, for fear of being identified, and said the Ukrainians are considering using the tool to verify the identities of Ukrainian refugees and their hosts as they flee for safety.
If technology has shown us anything, once it gets a toehold in society, it is there to stay. We will look back on this episode and see that the real impact of this software was less in helping Ukraine remain free from Putin’s ravages and more as a proof of concept for its use by military and population control organizations.
