A Dire Warning: The US Plan To Make Ukraine Into Europe’s ‘Big Israel’
From: Zero Hedge
In his famous anti-Vietnam War speech, the late senator from South Dakota George McGovern told fellow Congressional leaders, “This chamber reeks of blood.” On Saturday, journalist Max Blumenthal opened a hard-hitting talk at the Ron Paul Institute’s “Which Way America…?” conference in D.C.by quoting those words, but applied them to the US proxy war against Russia in Ukraine.
Blumenthal said that in Ukraine, Washington continues “wasting the lives and bodies of over 150,000 men, and that’s according to the Pentagon.” Citing recent studies on the immense numbers of Ukrainians who have lost limbs after a year-and-a-half of fighting (which could be surpassing WWI rates), he said the true Ukraine casualty count could be closer to 500,000 – which marks a monumental tragedy and disaster.
The GrayZone journalist then said of today’s Congress that “this chamber” not only “reeks of blood” but.. “they have wasted Ukrainian society on the mantle of anti-Russia hysteria” – as lawmakers in lockstep with the Biden administration continue to sink billions into Kiev.
Beltway liberal elites, Blumenthal asserted, still think Russia must be punished given they see Moscow as having brought the “bad orange man” to power in 2016. This is a big ideological aspect to what motivates the hawks, he said.
Further, Blumenthal explained that what’s happening here is that the US ruling class has “militarized the culture wars while depicting Ukraine as the ‘woke side’ vs. Russia as backwards and oppressive.”
But more importantly, the real “victors” are the major US defense contractors and their appendages like the K street neocon lobbying firms. Blumenthal highlighted that these, and the Biden administration, are operating with the bigger vision in mind of turning Ukraine into Europe’s “big Israel”.
By this is meant a permanently militarized ‘Spartan’ wartime state, which is funded and weaponized by Washington in perpetuity, and possesses all the latest cutting edge Western defense tech. But like with the state of things long evident inside Israel (in particular oppression of both Palestinians and Israeli political dissenters), democracy must be eroded at home for this to happen. Still, the defense tech peddlers in the military-industrial complex will ‘win’ no matter how much Ukrainian society and its people are sacrificed.
“In order to defend democracy in Ukraine, democracy must be curtailed at home,” Blumenthal emphasized, drawing lessons from current examples of oppression of free speech in the West, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
He noted here that his own investigative media outlet, The GrayZone, has had the bulk of its funding frozen by the popular platform GoFundMe. The outlet explained days ago [emphasis ZH]:
By this point, we had raised over $90,000 from over 1100 contributors. The generous contributions from our audience were accompanied by hundreds of messages of effusive support for our factual journalism holding imperial power to account.
And now, Gofundme is holding the donations hostage, refusing to transfer them to us, while failing to inform donors that it has effectively seized their money. The for-profit site has similarly refused to explain its freezing of their donations, issuing nothing more than a vague allusion – “some external concerns” – to pressure from powerful outside forces.
Gofundme’s financial sabotage follows the de facto sanctions imposed by Venmo and Paypal on our managing editor, Wyatt Reed, after he reported on the Ukrainian military’s targeting of civilians from the separatist side of the Donbas region.
Again, this is why Blumenthal could draw on recent personal experience in telling the Ron Paul conference audience that “democracy must be curtailed” in America in order to keep unlimited taxpayer dollars flowing into the Zelensky government’s coffers.
Blumenthal continued… but “now Russia has no incentive to negotiate” given they have the clear military momentum amid a failing Ukraine counteroffensive. The US and UK likely had a window of opportunity in the initial months of the war to more easily open up serious diplomatic peace negotiations, but this was actively thwarted.
“We cannot have peace negotiations while war is being incentivized[by Washington interests] to this point,” he continued while also referencing neocons like Bill Kristol, who has been leading a charge to silence any dissenting views from among Republican nominees and politicians on Ukraine.
“These operatives need constant opportunities” which a permanent proxy war in Europe enables, Blumenthal continued – just like with the constant and historic billions in aid flowing to Israel, which serves to cyclically fuel the accompanying global reach and outsized influence of the Israel lobby.
On this question of whether negotiations are possible even from Kiev’s perspective, Zero Hedge asked Blumenthal what he thinks would happen in the unlikely scenario that Zelensky himself suddenly pursued peace talks with the Russians. Blumenthal responded as follows:
“If Zelensky were to pursue peace talks now before he’s re-elected… due to the kind of social forces that have been unleashed by Maidan, he will face a far-right Nazi insurgency in his own country, and he will become public enemy number oneamong some of the most violent and militarized forces.
…Which is why he went and met with Andriy Biletsky, the founder of Azov. Zelensky was elected on a platform of peace by 73% of the population because you still had the ethnic Russian population participating in Ukrainian society. They have been completely driven out and the constituency he’s working with is completely different now.”
Below: Last month, Ukrainian President Zelensky held court with one of the most notorious neo-Nazis in modern Ukrainian history, Azov Battalion founder Andriy Biletsky.
Turning Ukraine into “a big Israel” will involve long-term funding to shape and place “America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier not in the Middle East but in Europe,” Blumenthal said.
But as Ukrainians continue to be slaughtered, it won’t be a happy situation for a country to become a “big Israel”, Blumenthal concluded.
* * *
Former US Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro (from 2011 to 2017) is helping to push this Ukraine as “big Israel” concept forward, Blumenthal pointed out.
A partial list of key elements of Shapiro’s road map for Ukraine was previously published by The Atlantic Council as follows:
Security first: Every Israeli government promises, first and foremost, that it will deliver security—and knows it will be judged on this pledge. Ordinary citizens, not just politicians, pay close attention to security threats—both from across borders and from internal sources— and much of the public chooses who to elect by that metric alone.
The whole population plays a role: The Israeli model goes further than Zelenskyy’s vision of security services deployed to civilian spaces: Most young Israeli adults serve in the military, and many are employed in security-related professions following their service. A common purpose unites the citizenry, making them ready to endure shared sacrifice. Civilians recognize their responsibility to follow security protocols and contribute to the cause. Some even arm themselves (though under strict supervision) to do so. The widespread mobilization of Ukrainian society in collective defense suggests that the country has this potential. In his comments, Zelenskyy reflected this reality when he said security would “come from the strength of every house, every building, every person.”
Self-defense is the only way: If there’s any single principle that animates Israel’s security doctrine, it’s that Israel will defend itself, by itself—and rely on no other country to fight its battles. The tragedies of Jewish history have embedded that lesson deep in the nation’s soul. Ukraine’s own trauma, forced to fight alone against a larger aggressor, reinforces a similar conclusion: Don’t depend on the guarantees of others.
But maintain active defense partnerships: Self-defense doesn’t mean total isolation. Israel maintains active defense partnerships, chiefly with the United States, which provides generous military assistance, but also with other nations with whom it shares intelligence, technology, and training. While Ukraine will probably not join NATO any time soon, it can deepen security partnerships with Alliance members and receive aid, weaponry, intelligence, and training to bolster its self-defense.
Intelligence dominance: From its earliest days, Israel has invested deeply in its intelligence capabilities to ensure that it has the means to detect and deter its enemies—and, when needed, act proactively to strike them. Ukraine will need to upgrade its intelligence services to compete against Russian capabilities and ensure that it’s prepared to prevent and repulse Russian attacks.
Technology is key: Although it relies on US assistance, Israel also chooses homegrown technology solutions for many of its greatest challenges. Multi-layer rocket and missile defenses, counter-drone systems, and tunnel detection technology are just recent examples. Ukraine—already home to bright technological minds—will know what threats it faces more than any partner; investing in its own solutions will allow it to be most responsive and adapt to new threats.
As Ukrainian forces continue their much-hyped counteroffensive to take back contested territories in the country’s eastern and southern regions, we’re faced with conflicting coverage of the campaign. Many reports say Ukraine’s forces are struggling to break through the minefields fortifying Russia’s lines. And many admit that even the sudden and dramatic Wagner Group mutiny did not appear to hand Ukraine much of an advantage on the front. Days ago, in a move that looks like damage control, Ukraine’s defense secretary even announced that Kyiv would no longer measure success in recaptured territory but would instead just aim to destroy as much Russian military infrastructure as possible.
Still, according to some Western journalists, this is all part of Ukraine’s plan. They’re just testing Russian resistance to find weak spots so they can better allocate resources during the next phase of the counteroffensive. And that’s when the big gains will take place. Maybe that’s true, but still, other coverage about Ukraine’s losses would have you think the counteroffensive has been a horrific disaster.
Much like the wider war, how you see this counteroffensive playing out depends almost entirely on where you get your news. That is not an accident. As citizens of the wealthiest country whose government controls the most military hardware in the world, it’s important to remember that all coverage of this war ought to be viewed with some baseline degree of skepticism. This is because numerous parties—in both governments and the media outlets themselves—are working hard to bend the American public’s perception of the war to their benefit.
That is, of course, nothing new. In 1941—the last time a European war threatened to go global—the British sent an intelligence officer named William Stephenson to the United States and tasked him with running an information operation to turn American public opinion away from noninterventionism.
The main approach Stephenson’s stories team used was secretly planting carefully crafted—and sometimes outright fake—stories in the biggest American newspapers and magazines. These stories were specifically designed to portray British forces as having more than enough courage to take on the Germans but lacking sufficient resources, regardless of how accurate that depiction was at any given time.
It was a specific tone that the United Kingdom’s Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) believed had the best chance of convincing the American public to support joining the fight. Since then, every group that the American political establishment wants to support militarily gets presented to the American people in a similar fashion—from the Mujahideen to the Syrian Kurds to the current Ukrainian regime.
Though we may not know about the prevalence of covert information operations for some time, a pair of stories published last month offer a window into some more overt efforts to shape our perception of the war in Ukraine. First, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, a Ukraine correspondent for the New York Times, wrote a viral story detailing how Ukrainian press officers and some Western journalists have tried to downplay, justify, or cover up the use of Nazi symbols by Ukrainian soldiers.
One specific passage tells of Western photojournalists asking their subjects to remove patches with Nazi emblems before taking photos. By doing so, these journalists crossed the line from documenting their subjects to staging them.
On the same day, former New York Times media columnist Ben Smith published an article reporting that many Western journalists have grown frustrated with how the Ukrainian government uses access and accreditation to shape war coverage. For example, the Ukrainian military threatened to revoke a photojournalist’s credentials after he took pictures of conscripted soldiers in a trench without the presence or permission of a military press officer.
In another example, an NBC News crew traveled to Crimea to interview residents about the war. After reporting that most people they talked to preferred that Crimea belonged to Russia, the Ukrainian government revoked NBC’s credentials and confined their in-country crew to a hotel.
Smith even brings up Thomas Gibbons-Neff from above, who had his access and credentials revoked after reporting on Ukraine’s use of banned cluster munitions. There’s no question that, at least to some extent, the continual threat of a loss of access affects everyone reporting over there in an official capacity.
This is not a new or unusual technique. The US government used similar tactics to help shape the narrative of its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Most professional journalists struggle endlessly to find sources. So, by granting extensive access that can always be revoked, governments can run an effective carrot-and-stick ploy to control media coverage.
Our views of war are warped by design. Sure, the Russian regime is mounting a similar effort to control how the Russian people view the war, but it would be absurd to say that the Kremlin holds an influence over the American public that’s even comparable to the US or Ukrainian governments.
Despite what the media, the government, or your middle school civics teacher wants you to think, you don’t need to frantically keep up with the hourly developments in Eastern Europe to be a good citizen. But if you choose to follow this war, understand which parties have a hand in delivering whatever information you’re consuming because not everyone is trying to tell you the truth.
The beauty of anonymous sources recounted by an unreliable reporter for a cable news outlet that would sell its own mother to a Turkish whoremonger for ratings is you can’t evaluate the claim.
I don’t know if it is true or not, but the story is out there, and I’ll discuss it later in the post.
There were major political shifts over the last week as Sweden stepped up its contribution to Ukraine’s defense, and the US Congress is considering several bills focused on setting the conditions for a Ukrainian military victory with no talk of an “off ramp” for Putin.
Next week there probably will not be an update. I will be in the hospital for part of the week for non-life-threatening but non-trivial surgery.
After much shilly-shallying over the last year, the US Congress is finally taking leadership in turning back Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. In the early days, the strategy seemed to be to bleed the Ukrainians into submission. Given the romance that much of State and Defense have had with the idea that Russia could be a useful security partner in Europe, the Middle East, and Southwest Asia, this was not all that shocking. Slowly the direction under, and I say this in only the most begrudging way, SecDef Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony (no “h”) Blinken have changed to pushing for an outright defeat of Russia. In my view, this is the most realistic view of how to deal with Russia since Ronald Reagan spent them into bankruptcy.
Now Congress is showing some leadership. The following bills have passed and are headed for Joe Biden’s desk. Whether he signs them depends on how much compromising material the Russian FSB has on Joe, James, and Hunter Biden.
H.R. 4175/S. 2003 would confiscate $350 billion in frozen Russian assets and redirect it to rebuilding Ukraine.
H.Res. 332/S.Res. 172 would embrace the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine as US policy.
H.R. 506/S. 416 would designate Wagner Group PMC as a terrorist organization.
H.Res. 154/S.Res. 72 would classify Russia’s occupation of Ukraine as genocidal.
The House has passed H.R. 3979, which declares Russia a terrorist state, and H. Res. 488, which calls on the Biden White House to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.
In light of this, I don’t see how Putin’s strategy of “wait the West out” makes a whole lot of sense. But neither did the invasion of Ukraine.
The problem I see with Putin’s strategy is that several of the countries he wants to ‘wait out’ correctly see Russian aggression as an existential threat. Poland, Finland and the Baltic States all see Putin and Russia as mortal foes.
Missile Attack on Kiev
Friday, Kiev was hit by a missile attack. The hardened air defense system destroyed all the incoming missiles. That said. one of the side effects of destroying a missile is that the wreckage has to fall somewhere. When it hits the ground, it may break things and hurt people. The tradeoff is protecting critical assets.
African Leaders’ Peace Mission to Kiev Greeted With Russian Missiles
A delegation of African leaders (South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda), led by South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, was in Kiev to discuss a peace proposal when the Russian missile strike hit.
There was no evidence Vladimir Putin took their plan seriously.
Cyril Ramaphosa has enough trouble at home. The unemployment rate in South Africa is north of 30%, the power grid is collapsing and they can barely feed themselves. He has his head buried in the sand about that too. . .
Using this logic, Ukraine could promise never to apply to join NATO if NATO accepted it as a member.
Yah, none of his stated aims/demands are going to happen. The only thing this invasion did was make Russia a pariah state. Oh, and it put paid to the myth of Russian military strength.
The Face of the Russian Dead
Among the members of the Open Source Intelligence community, there is a group that collates the obituaries of Russian soldiers from newspapers and social media. The BBC has an interesting analysis that shows how the Russian Army has changed since the war started. The deaths captured from open source are just a fraction of the total. I would imagine the data from early in the war is more accurate than the newer data because earlier in the war, more soldiers had someone who cared about them. No matter how the war ends, the implications for what this means to the Russian Army are staggering.
Between the war and emigration to avoid transcription, Russia may have lost most of a generation of young men.
I don’t typically get too worked up about Russian losses in Ukraine. This time it’s no different, except for the fact that I fear for the future of the Russian people. I have the uneasy feeling we are witnessing the dissolution of Russia as a state. The Chinese are already eyeing parts of far eastern Russia where ethnic Chinese make up a goodly percentage of the population.
After the Destruction of the Kakhovka Dam
The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam stopped any immediate Ukrainian offensive action in that sector, but it opened the way for a brand new axis of advance in late summer.
It is hard to watch the actions of the Russian Armed Forces and credit them with any of the classic military virtues. As volunteers and the Ukrainian military struggled to rescue civilians caught in the flood set off by Russian action, the Russian military attacked the rescuers. This is a blatant violation of the Geneva Convention and happened at such a scale that one can safely rule out rogue elements on the front lines acting alone.
There is no word on how the mosquitos have been trained only to attack Russian forces while leaving Ukrainian forces and civilians alone. I suspect this is the setup to obscure a larger story. When the Russians destroyed the Kakhovka Dam (Ukraine’s Nova Kakhovka Dam Is Blown up Unleashing Widespread Flooding), they managed to contaminate drinking water in much of the area they occupy in Kherson causing the re-emergence of that quintessential pre-20th century, Third World disease, cholera.
In all seriousness, the assault mosquito story is, as Streiff says, most likely a cover story for the inevitable outbreak of cholera among the Russian troops. I’ve had some small experience with the Russians and well, let’s just say they don’t have the best record of hygiene. The Soviet cantonment areas I saw when they finally left Germany in 1994 made me wonder if they weren’t keeping livestock instead of troops. The Russians in the Balkans were worse. I can’t imagine camp sanitation has improved any for them with all the convicts joining the ranks.
Operational Level
Overview
The general scheme of maneuver looks very much like last week. But there is a new twist.
The Ukrainian Army is advancing steadily on two primary axes of advance, Tokmak and Velyka Novosiika. On both axes, they are covering about a kilometer per day using light infantry with some mechanized and armor support. The combat is drone-heavy. Artillery strikes have shifted from the front lines to the direct support artillery, supply points, and troops assembly areas several kilometers behind the line.
The Tokmak Axis is getting interesting because a secondary attack is forming west of the main attack; you can see the small salient with the blue dot just east of the “reservoir.”
Thursday, Russian sources reported the Ukrainian Army had broken through the defensive line at Robotyne.
Reports on telegram and twitter this morning indicate that the breakthrough at Robotyne is real. There are hints that the UAF are exploiting the breach, but Ukrainian OPSEC has been very good since the offensive kicked off. If that breakthrough turns into a ‘thunder run’ and I can get good intel on it I’ll post something about it. And for all of the doomsayers out there, the UAF has 35-40 fresh, western trained and equipped brigades. So far only two of those brigades have been identified as being in action.
If this report is accurate, we can expect the Russians to fall back onto the first of their three major defensive belts.
The Ukrainian army is making small gains north and south of Bakhmut. I think this is a secondary effort designed to pin Russian forces down to defend their “prize.”
Last week the Russians launched a series of attacks in the area of Kupiansk. So far, we haven’t seen Russian progress there. My assessment is that this is a spoiling offensive designed to divert Ukrainian assets from their main effort but particularly to draw the Ukrainian forces putting pressure on Bakhmut away.
We have seen a significant change in Russian tactical behavior. In the past, when the Russians lost real estate, they regrouped in new defensive positions. Now we’re seeing any Ukrainian advance being met with an immediate counterattack. This is the same technique developed by the Russians towards the end of Wagner PMC’s involvement in Bakhmut. There is nothing wrong with the tactic, per se. It becomes problematic when fortifications intended to be abandoned are the objective, and your reserve force is limited. It becomes particularly problematic when the counterattacks aren’t successful.
In the case of Robotyne, the Russians did attempt a counterattack to retake outlying fortifications. The attack was well located, on the shoulder of the Ukrainian penetration, but its execution was poor, and it failed.
This goes back to the CNN story. There is evidence that the Russian Army is improving in some things, like drone operations. This counterattack was well-timed and technically correct. That’s because the skills needed for both of those things can be taught in a classroom. Where we do not see learning, and where I’d contend learning is not possible for the Russian Army in the current environment, is tactical proficiency on the battlefield. The attrition of Russian officers and lack of time out of the line for Russian units to train prevents the lessons learned from the last 16 months of warfare from being disseminated and adapted as standard procedures.
The main obstacle slowing the Ukrainians is the hundreds of thousands of artillery-delivered mines that turn any breakthrough into a hard slog through a minefield.
The lack of AAR and lessons-learned dissemination is going to be the death of the RuAF. Literally. I don’t know how many of you reading this were combat arms MOS’s, but after nearly every engagement, whether actual combat or just training, there are after action reviews and lessons-learned sessions. Those sessions helped each soldier in a unit to learn from what just happened, not just those directly involved. The complete lack of that type of thing in the Russian military will be the direct cause of a large number of casualties.
New Weapons
Sweden Okays Transfer of SAAB JAS 39 Gripen Fighters To Ukraine
Sweden is transferring an undeclared number of JAS 39 Gripen multi-role fighters to the Ukrainian Air Force. No specific date for the transfer or pilot training has been announced. When combined with the F-16s that are scheduled to enter service this autumn, the ability of the Russian Air Force to operate in the theater of operations will be nearly zero due to superior Ukrainian aircraft and an integrated air defense system.
The Saab Gripen is a relatively fast (Mach 2), highly maneuverable multi-role fighter. It has the ability to take off from very short, (1900 feet) unimproved runways. It is also the least expensive 4th gen fighter in terms of cost per flight hour, about $4600. For comparison, the next closest is the F-16 block C/D at around $7000 per flight hour. Those numbers include fuel used.
One of the key features of Operation Fortitude, the fake invasion of France at Pas de Calais that kept the German operational reserve frozen until the Normandy lodgement was well established, was several thousand canvas and inflatable decoys representing trucks, tanks, artillery, etc. We know the Ukrainians have used home-grown decoys to great effect (Putin’s War, Week 54. More NordStream Melodrama, Russia Shows Diplomatic Weakness, and the Bakhmut Flipflop).
Now some observers have noticed decoys of Russian air defense systems in transit in what looks like the American southwest.
I’d point out that both Fort Irwin (if they haven’t changed the name of it yet), CA, and Nellis AFB, NV, are sites of very sophisticated training f, facilities. To me, it seems more likely that the decoys are headed to one of those bases for use in an exercise. But who knows? I can’t imagine that the company producing these decoys hasn’t managed to get a contract to make them for Ukraine, though I’d hope we’d ship them by aircraft instead of open train cars.
T-55 in Action
About three months ago, I posted on a shipment of T-55 tanks headed for Ukraine, Putin’s War, Week 56. Putin Indicted for War Crimes, Xi Visits Moscow, and Sevastopol Attacked for a Third Time. The T-55 is a late World War II design that entered service in 1948. The report of them being sent to Ukraine was met with guffaws by the “Russia isn’t trying yet” crowd. Other people, paid think tank analysts who should know better, claimed that they were going to be used as self-propelled artillery (lolgf). They have now been seen in action.
Here a T-55 was packed with explosives, the laterals locked into position, and it was sent toward Ukrainian lines. The tank hits a mine at 0:10. Then it is hit by an RPG at 1:02…watch for the rocket launch towards the right of the frame, and you can see the projectile in flight. In retrospect, the Ukrainians should’ve left well enough alone. My guess is that the blast caused by the RPG probably killed or wounded most of the people in the trench in front. That white wall you see moving out at 1:03 is air compressed to the point of luminosity, followed by a vacuum that will collapse hollow organs, leaving you stone dead without a mark on you.
We don’t know if this is a new use for an elderly tank or an improvisation by soldiers who said, “No f***ing way am I crawling into that,” as it is the only one we’ve seen so far.
This isn’t the first time a decrepit T-55 has been packed with explosives and driven into enemy positions. One of the factions in Syria has done it several times. They actually managed to destroy the target at least once tho. . .
The MaxxPro is Tough
Last week I commented that the engineering devoted to crew survivability was paying huge dividends. Even when vehicles were damaged, we didn’t see the catastrophic fire-and-explosion combination that has become the trademark of Russian armored vehicles. The following sequence is an excellent example of that.
Early in the offensive, the Rusbots made a big deal of this video. In it, a T-72 is pushing a disabled MaxxPro MRAP. The T-72 is hit by a Russian Lancet (0:05). You can see the explosive reactive armor (ERA) activate before the explosion. The tank isn’t damaged. While the twit posting the video says the tank is trying to avoid being hit, the Lancet strike is at the very beginning. It looks like the MaxxPro gets stuck, and then bad stuff happens as the T-72 continues to push.
The T-72 is repairable, and, what’s more, the MaxxPro looks pretty good, too. This is the type of equipment that builds confidence in soldiers and lets them take more risks knowing there is an excellent chance that even if things go pear-shaped, they will still walk away from it.
This is the standard action-counteraction cycle that characterizes military operations. Something works really well; the enemy develops a counter, in this case, moving anti-aircraft assets up closer to maneuver units, and then what you were doing doesn’t work all that well.
It was only a matter of time before the UAF started shooting down RU helos. Rotary wing aircraft don’t last long in a contested environment. Unlike the Ukrainians, the Russians don’t have a SEAD/DEAD capability.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Ukrainian Commandos Clear a Strongpoint
In this video, Ukrainian Marine commandos clear a strongpoint behind Russian lines in Zaporishzhia. Note how deep the trenches are, unlike the latrine slit trenches we’ve become accustomed to seeing, and the presence of blast-proof dugouts in the trench.
Great movement and fire control techniques are exhibited, but If you are squeamish, you might want to avoid this video.
Russian milblogger Rybar claims that some of the Russians are unarmed because their weapons are stored in a central location in the strongpoint. That seems truthful if only because it is a very stupid way of doing business that no one would make up.
Russian authorities have declared a curfew in parts of Zaporizhzhia where one axis of the Ukrainian offensive is directed. You’ll recall that the Russians did this in Kharkiv and Kherson shortly before executing a major withdrawal.
A Ukrainian strike, believed to be by a Stormshadow cruise missile, hit a grouping of ammunition storage areas in Rykove, Kherson Oblast. The explosions continued for six hours, and satellite imagery showed the foundations of the buildings in the compounds had been erased.
I saw this when it first happened, and went to look for more information. The strike was both precise and spectacular. There is a small tank farm maybe 500m from the buildings that went up and it was untouched.
Another Stormshadow air-launched cruise missile strike.
Sinking at Sevastopol?
A floating dock and a pilot boat tied up there for repairs sank in Sevastopol on Tuesday. No word on the cause, but it is just as likely an industrial mishap as Ukrainian action.
If the reports of the breach of the initial fortification line at Robotyne are accurate, and as Russian sources report them, we can expect the situation is actually worse than they are saying, that line becomes untenable. The focus will now become breaching that first defensive belt. The Ukrainians, so far, have operated mostly with light infantry with some armor support. Only two of the brigades anticipated to be the main striking force for the offensive have been identified, but the first main line of fortifications is where we might see them in action.
The Ukrainians seem to have countered the threat of Russian helicopter gunships. Their campaign of destruction against Russian ammunition supply points will probably reduce the number of artillery-delivered mines available. Those two things indicate that the tempo may increase in the next couple of weeks.
While I’m sure the Ukrainians have a time-phased scheme of maneuver, it would be shocking if any combat arms officer expected that to fall into place. The Russians have put up tenacious resistance. They have used minefields to stop penetrations. And every successful attack will be met by a fierce counterattack.
At this point, I think the advantage and momentum are clearly with Ukraine so long as they focus on their mission and don’t get stampeded by the expectations of the media.
Most of the action over the last week has been away from the line of contact between the forces. Fighting continues around Bakhmut that may or may not shape up to be something significant. At this stage of the conflict, I’ve come to the conclusion that Russia is obsessed with winning this battle, even if they immediately withdraw because they desperately need a battlefield success…or at least the Russian military command needs one.
The success of the Ukrainian layered air defense system, capped by Patriot, has been proven in spades this week as it fended off two large and determined Russian missile attacks.
A new Ukrainian brigade equipped with Leopard 2 tanks, CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles, and Archer 155mm artillery has just arrived in country from training in Sweden. These new brigades disappear as soon as they hit Ukrainian soil. In addition, the Ukrainians have stepped up their strikes on logistics areas, air defense systems, communications facilities, troop assembly areas, and headquarters. All of this indicates a shift in focus away from the front lines toward damaging Russia’s capacity to respond to an offensive.
Speaking of soil, the battlespace is rapidly drying and opening the window for offensive action by either side.
The bezdorizhzhia (Ukrainian for the time of no roads or mud season) is just about over. Once the ground frms up enough to support heavy vehicles like tanks and A/IFVs the spring offensive will kick off in earnest. The shaping ops have been ongoing for a few weeks now.
See some of my previous updates for more great reading.
One of the major stories since the last update has been the performance of the Patriot missile batteries used by the Ukrainian armed forces. Nearly two weeks ago, Patriot engaged and destroyed a single Russian Kh-47 hypersonic missile (Ukraine Confirms a US-Supplied Patriot Air Defense System Shot Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile). This set off shockwaves because this was a weapon that Putin, himself, had named as being a game changer for Russian conventional forces. Monday, Russia tried to overwhelm the Patriot systems guarding Kiev, firing 18 top-of-the-line missiles, six of them were Kh-47s. All of them were shot down; see Patriot Leaves Skeptics Wordless, Russians Embarrassed, and Kiev Littered With Pieces of Putin’s Wonder Weapons. The Russian Defense Minister Sergei “the Plywood Marshal” Shoigu claimed five Patriot systems were destroyed. However, more reliable reports indicate that one unnamed component may have suffered very minor damage from falling debris and remained in service without repair.
This was the first test of Patriot against multiple missile types, including hypersonic missiles, fired from different locations. It passed the test.
Wednesday night, the Russians were back at work. They targeted four cities with a total of 30 missiles. Just one made it through the air defense system. Only a few were fired at Kiev. No Kh-47s were used.
I think the performance of the PAC-3 Patriot system in Ukraine surprised a lot of people on both sides. I know the Saudis have tried to use it against Houthi rockets with mixed success. Whether that’s down to the skill and motivation of the operators or some other factor, I just don’t know.
Kh-47 Development Team Charged with Treason
I’m sure this is totally not related to anything that has happened in Ukraine.
The official line from the Kremlin on the charges is that the scientists published a paper about ‘gas dynamics in a static environment’ and presented it at a conference in Iran.
South Africa Ships Arms to Russia
Most nations, other than Iran and North Korea, have studiously avoided shipping arms to Russia. Now there is a new member of that august company, South Africa. South Africa is a member of the Chinese-dominated developing world trade group BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) that Beijing hopes to create as an alternative power center to Brussels.
South Africa’s response is like something Bart Simpson would say, “I didn’t do it, you didn’t see me, you can’t prove it.” They said there is “no record” of arms shipments to Russia and, besides that, the US is sending arms to Ukraine.
If I were buying arms, I’d be very worried about the quality control of SA munitions. They can’t even keep the electricity on there.
Can’t Tell the Players Without a Program
The Russian military in Ukraine has gone through commanders to use a dated metaphor, the way Elizabeth Taylor went through husbands. I’m all in favor of ruthlessly weeding out commanders at the first hint of stupidity or incompetence, so long as you’re trading up and you’re putting the guy you fired on the street. The Russians have established quite a churn in senior leadership ranks, but the guys they fire end up commanding other units. So I’m not sure what they are accomplishing beyond looking tough and causing confusion.
There is an historical analogue to this in Russian/Soviet history. Stalin did the same things for the first year of WWII. He replaced ineffective commanders with other ineffective commanders. Unfortunately for Putin, there is no Zhukov or Rossokovsky stuck in some gulag to pull his fat out of the fire.
Another Useless Treaty Dies
One of the side effects of President George H. W. Bush’s campaign to make sure the USSR’s — and Russia’s — feelings were not hurt over losing the Cold War was to suck up to them in every way possible. Russia was allowed to illegally (in my view) inherit the USSR’s UN Security Council seat. We let Russia become the counterparty to treaties we’d signed with the USSR even when they made zero sense beyond giving the Kremlin a participation trophy. These are slowly but surely going away. President Trump withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty (Treaty Fetishists Go Into Mourning as President Trump Announces the US Will Leave the Open Skies Treaty) and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (Trump Announces the US Is Leaving a Treaty Russia Is Violating and You Can Guess What Happened).
Now Vladimir Putin has withdrawn from the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty that limited the number of troops and types of equipment that NATO and the USSR could have in Europe.
Notice me Senpai! (And I realize maybe one person reading this will get that joke/reference. If you want or need an explanation hit me up in the comments)
Rheinmetall Opens Joint Venture in Ukraine
The German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall is opening a joint venture in Ukraine. It will provide service and repair to German-made vehicles above the unit echelon of maintenance. More intriguingly, it will “produce selected Rheinmetall products” in Ukraine. Rheinmetall produces any weapon system an army could need,, from artillery to the Leopard tank, the Marder infantry fighting vehicle, and a whole lot more. The “transfer of technology” provision has a lot of implications for Ukraine’s indigenous weapons industry.
Some highlights;
-will be domiciled in Ukraine -comprehensive transfer of technology -the joint venture is expected to be operational from July 2023 -the maintenance and repair of vehicles delivered by Germany -intend to jointly produce selected Rheinmetall products in Ukraine https://t.co/PXLvgBtC5R
This is a really big deal. Prior to the invasion, the Ukrainians had a thriving export arms business. They built a bunch of upgraded soviet era stuff that sold very well on the international market.
This is former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev using the occasion of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron to point out Russia’s territorial claims on the Baltic States and Poland.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has posted a new rant claiming Poland and the Baltic states as occupied Russian land. It is easy to dismiss Medvedev’s ramblings, but similar nonsense from senior Kremlin figures set the stage for the genocidal invasion of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/SMAfAtK9Pa
— Business Ukraine mag (@Biz_Ukraine_Mag) May 17, 2023
When these people tell us what they want to do, we should listen to them.
Remember, the whole Novarossiya thing has featured prominently in Russian propaganda since before the war started.
Russia vs. Eurovision
During the Eurovision 2023 event, a Ukrainian group called Tvorchi was on stage singing their entry (guys, I just write the posts, I don’t write the music or sing, so please don’t blame me for this dross).
If you want a treat, watch Moldova’s 18th-place entry.
This epitomizes Russia’s conduct during this war. Its governing principle is senseless, purposeless violence. Ternopil in nowhere near the front lines and nothing of military value was hit. The attack was timed to strike while the hometown band was on stage. Pathetic.
The Clown Gap Widens
This is one of those clips that show Russia’s politicians or media at their best. Yes, we have clowns in our Congress who think Guam will tip over, but rest assured that Russia has mo’ better clowns.
In case you were wondering about the level of insanity in Russia:
Russian MP suggested training aggressive stray dogs and sending them to the "special military operation" zone – to de-mine and carry the wounded. pic.twitter.com/HvW0s3e0Oo
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 17, 2023
Operational Level
In my opinion, we are within a couple of weeks, at most, of Ukraine’s Spring Counteroffensive. As I mentioned earlier, the last fully trained and equipped brigades are coming home from various European training locations. New equipment is arriving, and we see proof that the Ukrainians sent abroad for training have learned their lessons well. We still don’t know how well the new brigades will perform in combat, but video is showing that frontline brigades are changing their Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) to more closely model Western European combined arms operations.
This summary by British Defense Intelligence, I think, underscores the difficulties facing the Russians. They have 200,000 troops to cover 1,200 kilometers of frontage; that is the distance from New York City to Savannah, GA. That is 166 men per kilometer, or one man every six meters. That is a good density, but to achieve it, they can’t have anyone who is not an infantryman. So if those troops are in 70 regiment/brigade equivalents, that means about 140,000 troops are in combat units.
The last bullet is the kicker. Ordinarily, you’d want a reserve to be about one-third the size of your total force. Suddenly you’re left with 93,000 troops to hold the front lines, a density of 77 men per kilometer or one man per 13 meters. This allows the attacker to achieve overwhelming numerical superiority at virtually any point. Positioning the reserve forces so they can stop a breakthrough is an entirely different problem.
Russia only avoids a disaster if Ukraine can’t synchronize its combat forces to punch through the ersatz fortified lines and/or it can’t manage the logistics to sustain an advance.
The amount of success Ukraine achieves during the spring offensive is going to come down to how much they have absorbed and internalized from their western training. If they follow the doctrine that they’ve been taught, they will roll up a lot of territory in a relatively short period of time. If they fall back into the old Soviet doctrinal ways, they will only see modest gains.
New Weapons
ADM-160 Miniature Air Launched Decoy (MALD)
The ADM-160 MALD made its way onto the list of “New Weapons” not by a press release but by pieces of it littering the streets of Russian-occupied Luhansk.
Evidence Of ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy Use By Ukraine Emergeshttps://t.co/uHe13hwKcD
DECOYED: Ukraine has employed US-made ADM-160 Miniature Air Launched Decoys in the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. ADM-160s may have been used in the recent UKR ‘ambush’ of a pair of Russian Su-35 and Su-34 strike aircraft as well as downing 2 Mi-8 Electronic Warfare helos. pic.twitter.com/yU8fzaFQ7Z
Here are videos explaining more about what it is and how to use it.
It’s interesting that the US allowed the transfer of the MALD. I have to wonder if they are downgraded in some way to prevent tech transfer.
Storm Shadow Arrives
Last update I posted about the British Storm Shadow cruise missile being transferred to Ukraine. This places all Russian military facilities in the theater of operation at risk. This has forced the Russians to relocate logistics and command and control facilities further to the rear. The relocation forces Russian commanders to spend more windshield time during combat operations than they’d like and increases their vulnerability. It also strains the already overstretched Russian truck/tanker fleet by forcing them to spend more time on the road while it hampers the supply status of front-line units.
Logistical issues were the biggest reason WWII lasted as long as it did in Europe. As the Army advanced, supply lines were stretched to near breaking. The Russians do not have the transshipment capability that the US had back then. Storm Shadow puts any depot or ammo dump in danger of destruction.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Storm Shadow and MALD
Storm Shadow and MALD were used for the first time to take out a logistics facility in Luhansk, Occupied Ukraine.
On May 13, Ukraine successfully hit several targets in Luhansk, using a combination of decoy missiles and British missiles, while Russia lost four military air assets near Ukraine’s north in what possibly was an ambush by Ukrainian fighter jetshttps://t.co/Q5EFVSGGiD
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 14, 2023
Possible first use of Storm Shadow cruise missiles in Ukraine. A possible plant that was used as reported repair base by Russia was hit in Luhansk city. The target is reportedly out of the range of HIMARS GMLRS munitions. pic.twitter.com/BQcaljZloT
As a side benefit, Russian State Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky was in Luhansk during the festivities and took the opportunity to go into one of the buildings to inspect the damage, and a wall collapsed on him. His injuries were superficial. Maybe they should make him a Dumbass deputy as well as a Duma deputy.
1/ Yesterday's Ukrainian attack in Luhansk has provided a painful lesson for Russian State Duma deputy Viktor Vodolatsky, who was reportedly injured when a wall fell on him while he was posing next to it. https://t.co/tWJei5XWiD
Serves his dumb ass right. If there is anything I hate more than a politician, it’s a politician at the front.
Northern Front
Donbas
Bakhmut Update
This city has captured the imagination of the press because it has resisted Russian attacks for about seven months. The Russians are clearly obsessed with conquering it, perhaps so their online followers who’ve proclaimed Bakhmut captured every day for the last seven months can finally claim to be correct.
There are low-level Ukrainian counterattacks taking place on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut. As this is happening, Russian forces are still pushing forward, house by house, inside the city. You can see the approximate lines of advance indicated by the light blue areas in the bottom third of the map.
Over the previous two days, the Defense Forces in some places advanced on the flanks of Bakhmut at a distance of 350 meters to 2 kilometers, – Speaker of the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Cherevaty At the same time, the invaders continue to focus their… pic.twitter.com/efnnw9XdM6
As I mentioned above, it seems like the Russians are fixated on taking all of Bakhmut even if they have to immediately abandon it. In the last week they have been targeting bridges in the Ukrainian rear, bridges they’ve left alone for the last seven months. This indicates the Russians are more concerned about the Ukrainians using the bridges to advance than in saving them for any Russian offensive.
I saw an article recently, ISW I think, that rated troop effectiveness by LOC sector. It seems the Russians are pouring their most combat effective troops into the Bakhmut sector, and the troops elsewhere are of poor quality. If that’s true, then the exsanguination happening in and around that city starts to make some sense. It will allow a UAF breakthrough elsewhere and exploitation of those breakthroughs.
Rear Areas
Luhansk
Partisan Operations
The quisiling Interior Minister of Occupied Luhansk, Igor Kornet, really should’ve skipped that haircut.
An explosion occurred in the center of Luhansk in a barbershop called "The Brothers". According to Russian media, at least three people were wounded. Among them is the acting "minister of the LPR Interior Ministry" Igor Kornet. pic.twitter.com/lTNEw8yEjy
The train track near Chistenkoe in Occupied Crimea was damaged by an explosion and a train derailed.
In Crimea, there was a diversion on a railroad. IED was detonated at about 8 am near Chistenkoe. 8 wagons derailed. pic.twitter.com/TPVkHqUNDY
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 18, 2023
I expect these kinds of attacks to ramp up considerably in the days preceding the kickoff of the spring offensive. They primarily do two things, disruption of supply lines, no matter how trivial and they tie up troops.
Sabotage in Russia
A train was set on fire in Kazan, Russia.
🔥The footage from the scene of sabotage on the railway in Kazan, russia, where unknown people set fire to four relay boxes at once
It is reported that because of this, the movement of five freight trains was stopped on the railway. They also write that there is no video… pic.twitter.com/qSCEg0oJbw
— ✙△ Albina Fella △✙🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) May 18, 2023
What’s Next?
I think the next several days will see Ukraine starting to hit targets that have been out of reach in the past. I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of the new brigades appear near Bakhmut. This would serve to fix Russian forces in place and possibly get them to commit any local reserve as it would look like this was part of the Spring Counteroffensive. I still believe the main attack will be on the Tokmak-Melitopol axis and the only thing that can slow it down is lack of tactical proficiency by the Ukrainians.
Monday night, the Russian armed forces launched an unprecedented missile attack against the Ukrainian capital of Kiev. At least 18 state-of-the-art Russian missiles were used in the attack. Six Kh-47 hypersonic missiles were launched from MiG-31K aircraft, surface combatants from the Black Sea Fleet fired nine Kalibr cruise missiles, and land forces in Occupied Ukraine launched three Iskander-M semi-ballistic missiles. This attack was supported by six Iranian-designed Shahed 136 suicide drones and three Orlan-10 reconnaissance drones to evaluate the operation.
Defending against the attack was a layered air defense system built around the recently arrived Patriot surface-to-air missile system. The final box score showed a perfect game for the Ukrainians with all Russian missiles destroyed…or maybe not.
Usually, attacks of this magnitude target several different Ukrainian cities. As far as I can tell, this is the first time any Ukrainian city has been hit with a strike using this number of top-of-the-line weapons. Why is that? We can’t know for sure, but I think we have enough information to make an informed guess.
On May 5, Kiev was again under missile attack. This marked the first missile attack on the capital since Patriot missiles arrived in Ukraine. The Patriot’s first appearance in combat in Ukraine resulted in a clean sweep for the defenders. In this case, the Russians used a single missile, the hypersonic Kh-47; see Ukraine Confirms a US-Supplied Patriot Air Defense System Shot Down a Russian Hypersonic Missile.
Patriot intercepting a Kh-47 sent out a few shock waves.
The Russians have used the Kh-47 to strike targets in Ukraine since March 2022. Best estimates indicate they’ve fired less than 20 of them.
The Kh-47 was introduced to the world by Vladimir Putin on March 1, 2018, back when people still paid attention to what he said. This article by The Drive details the six classes of weapons that Putin claimed would keep Russia in the front rank of military powers.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Threat project, this weapon was designed to defeat the US Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. THAAD is designed to intercept anything short of an intercontinental ballistic missile in terminal phase.
We have a Russian “Чудо-оружие” aka wunderwaffen, which Vladimir Putin claimed gave Russia an edge in any conflict with NATO. The weapon was designed to defeat the most capable US air defense system. Patriot was not supposed to be able to defeat hypersonic weapons.
In my opinion, the Russians staged the attack last night using a sample of its best strike weapons to overwhelm the Patriot batteries around Kiev, put them out of action, and restore Russia’s reputation. Keep in mind that Patriot has never faced a large number of sophisticated weapons in a single attack. One could reasonably write off the successful May 5 interception to chance.
The Russian government did what it does best: lie about the affair. They claim it is impossible to shoot down a Kh-47, so, despite the pieces littering Kiev parks, it didn’t happen. So naturally, the regime’s fluffers picked up the story because nothing shows loyalty to Moscow like totally discrediting yourself.
The attack last night not only included six Kh-47 missiles, it included three Iskander-M semi-ballistic missiles, which are purported to be able to maneuver on their terminal trajectory.
When the dust cleared, it appeared that Patriot had performed magnificently. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry claimed all missiles and drones were shot down. There were no missile hits on targets in Kiev, but debris from successful interceptions did cause some property damage.
Russia claims it has destroyed Patriot air defence system
Russia’s defence ministry has said it has destroyed a US-built Patriot surface-to-air missile defence system overnight with a hypersonic Kinzhal missile attack on Ukraine, the Zvezda military news outlet reports.
It quoted the ministry as saying the overnight strikes had also been aimed at Ukrainian fighting units and ammunition storage sites, Reuters reported.
Ukraine said earlier that it had shot down 18 Russian missiles overnight, including an entire volley of six Kinzhals.
CNN’s Natasha “Fusion Natasha” Bertrand, who is best known for mainstreaming Fusion GPS’s Russia Hoax stories, got into the act
A US-made Patriot air defense system was likely damaged, but not destroyed, as the result of a Russian missile barrage in and around Kyiv early Tuesday morning local time, a US official tells CNN.
The US is still assessing to what degree the system was damaged, the official said. That will determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or simply repaired on the spot by Ukrainians forces.
…
Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that they successfully intercepted all six hypersonic missiles fired by the Russians, but the Ukrainian military declined to comment on the Russians’ claim that a Patriot system was hit. “We cannot comment on this. We’ll stay out of commenting on Russian sources,” said the Ukrainian Air Force spokesman, Yurii Ihnat.
National Security Council Spokesman John Kirby said he had no information on a Patriot system being damaged.
Most noticeably, the Russians backed off their “destroyed” claim, left their surrogates high-and-dry, and pushed CNN’s claim.
A US-made Patriot missile air defense system, shipped to Ukraine was damaged by a Russian strike, CNN reported Tuesday citing source in the US Administration, adding that the US is assessing the damage.
According to CNN, the missile system was damaged, not completely destroyed. After the damage is assessed, a decision will be made on whether the system could be repaired locally or will require transportation back to the US.
On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that Russian forces hit a US-made Patriot system in Kiev with a Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
Was a Patriot missile launcher, radar, or command and control section destroyed? Probably not. Moscow wouldn’t have abandoned its “detroyed” narrative that quickly if they had any information of a direct hit on a Patriot component by a missile. Was some component damaged? If so, it would have been a function of a missile warhead landing somewhere near a Patriot component after an interception because a direct hit by any of the missiles shot at Kiev will not result in “damaged,” or post-interception missile debris hitting something.
The importance of last night’s performance can’t be overstated. For years the anti-American left that has opposed Ballistic Missile Defense ever since President Ronald Reagan’s “Star Wars” speech has claimed that Patriot doesn’t work and that an anti-missile system can’t hit either a hypersonic missile or a missile with some maneuverability. This is from the insufferable Jeffrey Lewis writing in Foreign Policy. Patriot Missiles Are Made in America and Fail Everywhere.
On March 25, Houthi forces in Yemen fired seven missiles at Riyadh. Saudi Arabia confirmed the launches and asserted that it successfully intercepted all seven.
This wasn’t true. It’s not just that falling debris in Riyadh killed at least one person and sent two more to the hospital. There’s no evidence that Saudi Arabia intercepted any missiles at all. And that raises uncomfortable questions not just about the Saudis, but about the United States, which seems to have sold them — and its own public — a lemon of a missile defense system.
…
But I am deeply skeptical that Patriot has ever intercepted a long-range ballistic missile in combat — at the least, I have yet to see convincing unclassified evidence of a successful Patriot intercept. During the 1991 Gulf War, the public was led to believe the that the Patriot had near-perfect performance, intercepting 45 of 47 Scud missiles. The U.S. Army later revised that estimate down to about 50 percent — and even then, it expressed “higher” confidence in only about one-quarter of the cases. A pesky Congressional Research Service employee noted that if the Army had correctly applied its own assessment methodology consistently, the number would be far lower. (Reportedly that number was one — as in one lousy Scud missile downed.)
Lewis’s Twitter account has been noticeably silent about the Kh-47 interceptions.
Last night should put to rest, for once and for all, the bullsh** slung by the “arms control” kibitzers who have made tenure and a lot of money chanting “you can’t hit a bullet with a bullet” for 40 years. It is apparent that Patriot is a viable system for defending a city against a variety of simultaneous missile attacks. Patriot’s performance demonstrates it has capabilities that haven’t been advertised and lead one to think that THAAD can do a lot that we don’t know about.
As I write this, another Russian missile attack is targeting Ukrainian cities. Kiev is not among them.
As we finish up Month Fifteen of Vladimir Putin’s splendid little war, let’s take a look at what is going on.
Everyone is waiting for the Ukrainian counteroffensive/Spring Offensive to kick off. There are some hints that things are happening, but a lot of deliberate confusion is being sowed also. The Ukrainians are trying to sell, “we’re destined to win but maybe this offensive won’t do it.” That’s logical. They don’t want to oversell; in fact, they are really selling the theme that if they win big, it will be despite all the nice weaponry the West could’ve provided. But, it they do win big, they want to be able to roll out the “you thought we couldn’t do it” narrative. Quite honestly, if any of three American administrations had played the communications game in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his cabinet are playing this, things could’ve turned out a lot differently.
The Brits have supplied Ukraine with their Storm Shadow cruise missile. This allows Ukraine to hit any facility directly supporting the invasion. I go into detail on that below.
Ukraine has launched a counterattack on the Russian attempt to encircle Bakhmut, which is moving slowly but steadily. Wagner Group has officially evacuated Bakhmut, and Ramzan Kadyrov’s Chechens are allegedly taking over that sector of the line.
There is, as always, a lot more to talk about. See some of my previous updates for more great reading.
The major news this week is that the British government has provided Ukraine, underline “has” not “will,” provided Ukraine with the Storm Shadow cruise missile. This missile has an unclassified range of nearly 200 miles and carries the same punch as the ATACMS missile Ukraine has been campaigning for and has been told it will not get. This transfer has been hinted at since December. The announcement means that British and Ukrainian engineers have ironed out the problems of mating Storm Shadow to Third World airframes much as US and Ukrainian engineers have been able to sling a very modern AGM-88 HARM on Fred Flintstone’s MiG-29 (Putin’s War. Week 26: A Bizarre Assassination in Moscow, a Nuclear Power Plant Held Hostage, and Ukraine Launches (Maybe) Its First Offensive).
What does this mean? It means that Ukraine can strike any target within the war zone and in the Russian borderlands. The strategy the Russians have been using of moving supply dumps and command and control nodes out of HIMARS range just stopped working. It means that surface-to-air missile units defending against Ukrainian air strikes along the Forward Edge of the Battle Area will have to be relocated to protect critical assets deeper inside Russian-occupied territory. Requiring the Ukrainians to use a strike aircraft for launch also means that the usage rate will be reduced, as compared to ATACMS, and give a fig leaf to the whole “escalation” thing that Tony Blinken obsesses about but for which there is no evidence of its existence.
Repost. A 250 (yellow) to 300 (blue) km radius applied from Odesa, Kherson, Orikhiv and Kramatorsk gives a rough indication of the reach of Storm Shadow missiles (export version), based on current frontlines. All sovereign Ukrainian territory can be reached with 300km range. pic.twitter.com/YtTjMnAQKV
More on the technical aspects of Storm Shadow can be found below.
I’ll freely admit I know very little about the Storm Shadow system besides what I’ve read in the past 48 or so hours since the announcement. That said a couple of things stand out to me. First is how quickly they were adapted to existing UAF airframes. The Norwegians have been trying to get them for their attack jets for a couple of years now, and still haven’t got the interface figured out. Second, they give moderately deep strike capability to the UAF that they desperately need.
Zelensky Says Ukraine Needs More Time
While everyone is anticipating the Ukrainian offensive, President Volodymyr Zelensky is saying that Ukraine needs more time to prepare and will not rush its offensive.
Ukraine's president says his military needs more time to prepare for a counteroffensive aimed at pushing back Russian occupying forces. Volodymyr Zelenskyy says it would be “unacceptable” to launch the assault now because too many lives would be lost. https://t.co/vfcS7MG7Km
I think several things are at work here. First, Zelensky is adding strategic ambiguity to the situation. If you are expecting an imminent offensive, and Russian Telegram Channels and Wagner honcho Yevgeny Prigozhin insists the offensive is already underway, your actions are different than if you merely know one is coming. Second, all the pieces may not be in place for an optimal attack. It serves no purpose to throw away what might be Ukraine’s best hope to restore its international boundaries by adhering to a self-inflicted deadline. Third, Zelensky is also reacting to some of the poor-mouthing of Ukraine’s hopes voiced by anonymous sources in Western media. What he does not want to do is pre-emptively kick off an attack to meet expectations for an early offensive, squander the chance, and build a narrative that Ukraine just isn’t up to the job.
On the other hand, this could be a head fake to cover an imminent attack.
I’ve seen two basic positions on the upcoming UAF offensive. Either people think it’s going to be a walk in the park or it isn’t going anywhere at all. I find myself somewhere in the middle; the UAF is going to make substantial territorial gains, but not all that the optimists are saying. I will have more to say on that later.
The Underwhelming Might of Putin’s Victory Day
Russia’s Victory Day celebration has come and gone. It was the smallest and most downscale Victory Day celebration ever. Seven Russian regions canceled celebrations out of fear of Ukrainian drone attacks. Moscow’s parade included one tank: a T-34. There were only 51 pieces of equipment in the parade compared to 131 in 2022 and 187 in 2021.
BREAKING: Seven Russian regions cancel their May 9 military parades over fears of Ukrainian strikes
None of the first-line Russian units, such as Spetsznaz or VDV (airborne), were present. Most of the marching units were cadets from military academies. No World War II veterans shared the stage with Putin — which is entirely understandable since the youngest would probably be a centenarian. Ominously, Putin’s invitees were two superannuated commies, one had supervised the eradication of Ukrainian partisans in the 1950s, and the other had a prominent role in crushing Czechoslovakia in 1968. The speech focused on Russia as a victim. There wasn’t a single threat of nuking anyone.
This was not the parade of a victorious nation.
Full Putin Speech at the Victory Day Parade 2023
"We see how in certain countries they ruthlessly and cold-bloodedly destroy memorials to Soviet soldiers, demolish monuments to great commanders, create a real cult of the Nazis and their proxies, erase and demonize the memory of… pic.twitter.com/AQlnvB7GpE
If you want to see the parade’s highlight, go to 42:31.
Video of Victory Parade with English voice over explaining who is parading and accomplishments. Had to smile when women's regiment was introduced by the musical band with "Katyusha"https://t.co/jbVDBYlDBD
This was just sad. It’s probably more embarrassing than the wonder-waffen T-14 breaking down in the middle of the parade 2 years ago. It gets worse though, the lone T-34 in the parade was produced in Ukraine. . .
Russia Tells “Family Guy” to Stop Being Mean
The Russian government has protested to the producers of the television show Family Guy that they are being mean to Russia.
“The artist has the right to his vision, but this is a deliberately offensive artistic image that has nothing to do with reality. This is a deliberate work against our country. Information warfare through artistic works. They deliberately create an image of Russia as a country where everyone is unhappy with life, drinking, using drugs, taking bribes,” said Chelyabinsk region deputy Yana Lantratova.
This reminds me of how a lot of the American left reacts when anyone has the nerve to show life in parts of urban America.
What few understand: this video is authentic (satirically drawn, but real). I visited Chelyabinsk (and was nearly gunned down there) in 2003, it looked exactly like that, and the region had the Russia-most-nuclear-polluted area (Techa incident). Here is how the city looks now. https://t.co/arW3KwJRh5pic.twitter.com/W2D67ZNU6c
At the Black Sea Economic Cooperation conference in Ankara, Turkey, the war in Ukraine played out in the conference center. A Russian delegate was giving an interview when Ukrainian delegation secretary Oleksandr Marikovski photobombed (video bombed?) him with a Ukrainian flag. Marikovski’s Russian counterpart, Valery Stavitsky, walked over and grabbed the flag from his hands. Marikovski caught up with the Russian, recovering the flag and landing some half-assed punches and slaps in the process.
There was a great assist from the unnamed woman in the white blazer, who threw the body check that slowed the Russian down.
🥊 In Ankara 🇹🇷, during the events of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Black Sea Economic Community, the representative of Russia 🇷🇺 tore the flag of Ukraine 🇺🇦 from the hands of a 🇺🇦 Member of Parliament.
I saw this as soon as it happened. To be completely honest, nobody really came out looking good on this one. I mean, I’m all for trolling people, but there are consequences when it happens face to face.
Chechens Replace Wagner Group in Bakhmut?
Last week, Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prignozhin went on a verbal rampage, excoriating the perceived lack of support of his men by the Russian high command; see Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin Goes Medieval on Russia’s Military Command Over Lack of Ammunition. This led to a verbal exchange between him and Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the puppet regime in the Chechen Republic and a major booster of the Special Military Operation.
In the end, Kadyrov pledged his Chechen troops to relieve Wagner Group of their sector of the front line.
Kadyrov publicly addressed Prigozhin and told him that if Wagner PMC leaves Bakhmut, then Kadyrov's men would enter Bakhmut instead within hours.
But I think Kadyrov won't send his people to death like Wagner does. He bluffs and makes loud statements to return to Russian agenda… pic.twitter.com/4CxtTznPX8
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 5, 2023
Prigozhin wrote a formal request to Shoigu / the Russian Ministry of Defense to issue an order to be replaced by Kadyrov’s troops per May 10. Reason: lack of ammunition and having lost combat potential. pic.twitter.com/3Fs4d8c0bq
This may just be some sleight of hand. Kadyrov claims he pays better than Wagner Group, so we may see the flag change and the people remain the same. Even so, in my view, it is a sign that the Russian operation to capture Bakhmut has been officially written off. Kadyrov will not have the ability to recruit non-Chechens to fill the ranks. The Chechens have a terrible reputation for brutality towards anyone who is not one of them. Without the ability to recruit prisoners and other trash, Kadyrov’s constituents will be the only troop available to hold Wagner’s sector. So far, he’s kept his men out of the hotspots, and they’ve mainly seen service as “blocking units” (Putin’s War, Week 35. The Lull Before the Next Storm) to prevent Russian troops from retreating and as military police. He’s not going to run them into the Bakhmut meat grinder.
The Kadyrovites have a well earned rep for brutality. And not actually being close to front-line combat. Ramzan and his commanders talk a good game, but aren’t around when the metal hits the meat.
Russian Oligarch Speaks the Truth
I periodically post clips from Russian television to give a flavor of what is happening on the “home front.” This is one of the minor Russian oligarchs, Andrey Kovalev.
Andrey Kovalev is a Russian real estate businessman, a public figure, and chairman of the All-Russian Movement of Entrepreneurs. According to his biography on the movement website, he previously held government positions and was a member of the Moscow City Duma. In 2012, Kovalev was included in the “List of the Kings of Russian Real Estate” by Forbes Russia with an income of $55 million.
Quite a remarkable monologue by Russian oligarch Andrey Kovalev, but he only speaks out what many Russians really think.
His tone is not a lot different than Putin’s Victory Day address.
Putin Insider Let’s the Crazy Out
Former FSB head, current Secretary of the Security Council of Russia, and rumored front-runner to succeed Vladimir Putin should that happen, Nikolai Patrushev gave a barnburner of an interview to Izvestia explaining the reasons for the NATO, the Ukraine War, and just about everything else. He ends up with the reason for US interest in Ukraine being an explosion of Old Faithful in Yellowstone. Read the synopsis here, along with a link to the Izvestia article.
You can laugh at this, but consider that Russia’s second most powerful man believes in this enough to say it out loud.
I’m not sure I can convey how much the babushkas, who are the major driver of Russian public sentiment, eat this stuff up. I used to spend an hour or so a day watching Russian state TV to try to get a feel for what was being said. I had to stop because frankly it was driving me nuts.
How Do You Say “Dylan Mulvaney” in Russian?
Last week, my colleague Joe Cunningham posted on Russian men suddenly developing gender dysphoria when confronted with the draft. Give it a read.
Here’s an interesting side note about the above. While Russia has scant protections for LGBT rights, they do have (or did, the Duma just passed a law changing the requirements) loose rules on changing gender on official docs like passports.
Monument to the Red Army Taken Down
I’m using the Russian UNESCO Twitter feed for this because the irony is just too delicious.
@UNESCO ideals on heritage protection, combating discrimination and intolerance, a'la Polish style:
“Civilised” Warsaw 🇵🇱 celebrates the #Victory over nazism by demolishing the monument to fallen soldiers, that’s how they express their gratitude to the liberators of Auschwitz. pic.twitter.com/ZJUTM13eaH
— RussianMissionUNESCO (@unesco_russia) May 5, 2023
That was an official act. The unofficial acts were much the same. The Russian Ambassador showed up on Victory Day to place a wreath at the grave of the Red Army soldiers who died in Poland. It didn’t work out all that well.
The only thing that surprises me about this one is that it took so long. Poland was never happy under the yoke of the Soviets. Not that I blame them considering Katyn and the extremely brutal immediate post-WWII occupation.
Operational Level
Preparing to Bug Out?
While it is hard to tell with certainty what is going on, there are some indications that Russian forces are preparing, if not intending, to withdraw from areas of Occupied Ukraine and fall back into Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea, they have illegally occupied since 2014. If you go back to the period before the Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv (September/October) and the Russian evacuation of the right bank of the Dnieper, you see the same thing happening.
The occupiers are carrying out an "evacuation" in Zaporozhye, the General Staff In Mykhailivka, all property is "evacuated" together with employees of enemy institutions on stolen cars. Also, 15 buses arrived in Dniprorudne to evacuate representatives of the occupation… pic.twitter.com/2DxKH55W6S
There are insane queues on the road from Melitopol to Crimea, – Mayor of Melitopol Fedorov
He says that pass the military through the Chongar checkpoint out of turn, and everyone else has at least 5 hours of waiting. pic.twitter.com/6WSxaaKVdm
Significant Traffic for the 2nd Weekend-in-a-Row at the “Marinovka” Border Checkpoint between the Donetsk Region and Western Russia. pic.twitter.com/pQRXXwI7o5
Signs of 🇷🇺 preparing to leave Melitopol: – 🇷🇺 passport office closed, equipment moved out, torn passports found. – 🇷🇺 mil personnel seen switching to civilian clothing, discarded uniforms found in dumpsters. – Deadly surprises left: mines attached to trees, ready to cause harm. pic.twitter.com/KJUnghIUFn
I’m not sure about this one. It’s quite possible that the RU forces are getting ready to bug out, but, it’s also possible they are getting rid of anyone or anything they consider a detriment to dropping thermite and WP bombs on those cities.
Prisoner Exchange
Saturday, 45 Ukrainian prisoners were exchanged for three Russian pilots. This has been portrayed as an example of Russia having a pilot shortage, but I think something much more banal is at work. The pilots are part of Russia’s military elite. Once an opportunity to return even a few from captivity, the Russian military jumped at the chance. If these three pilots, who will have to undergo extensive retraining and security vetting, increase Russia’s combat power, the Russians have larger problems than we’d thought.
Great news on this ☀️day.
We are bringing our 45 people back. These are 42 men and 3 women – defenders of Azovstal.
All of them are National Guards from the unit created 9 years ago on the shores of Azov. pic.twitter.com/HrSuCbqUIL
I have to wonder if any of the three are connected politically. I can’t think of any other reason, including pilot shortage, to trade 3 for 45.
New Weapons
Storm Shadow
As I posted at the top of the update, Britain has transferred the Storm Shadow cruise missile to Ukraine. This is an excellent video on the subject.
https://youtu.be/pCCnb7ILnZ8
And Chuck Pfarrer has another of his killer infographics.
SUNDAY PUNCH: The UK has confirmed it's supplying UKR with long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles. The Stormshadow has a range of over 250km (155 miles), giving UKR new capabilities as it prepares a counter-offensive against Russia.https://t.co/XiQgryoFispic.twitter.com/qZ6efXERNI
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 11, 2023
Ordinarily, I wouldn’t include this under “new weapons,” but given the ubiquity of drones in Ukraine, it seems proper. The RPS-42 is a very short-range radar that can detect rocket, artillery, and mortar fire. It has IFF interrogation capability and can operate while mounted on a vehicle. Saturating critical areas with this radar will place them off limits to drone surveillance and attacks.
Israeli RPS-42 Aerial-Surveillance Radar Systems have already begun to appear around the Central Regions of Ukraine; these Systems will allow further Detection of Missiles, with so far at least 3 Systems already Deployed and a further 12 expected to Enter Service within May. pic.twitter.com/Hi3RGZWZYK
This is the first Israeli sourced aide to Ukraine that I’m aware of. The issue is there are a metric shit ton of Russian Jewish emigrants in Israel, and well, they still have some sort of allegiance to Russia.
HIMARS Jamming?
CNN ran a story last Friday claiming that the Russians were jamming GPS signals used by HIMARS to give it the pinpoint accuracy that has made it so formidable. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m unqualified to assess these claims, and there are plenty of opinions on both sides.
In Electronic Warfare news, RuAF jamming has made life difficult for the premiere Western long range artillery system present in the Ukrainian Theatre… https://t.co/sHOAHM1Ow3
This trench is a case study of how not to build a trench. No zig-zags, no fighting positions, too shallow for protected movement. If this is what the Russian defense belts behind the front line look like, the Russians will not be trying to stop the Ukrainians by using fortifications.
At 0:47, you can see why looking above a trench is a terrible evolutionary strategy.
Crazy footage showing Ukrainian paratroopers clearing a russian trench. Watch until the end. pic.twitter.com/jOSgDCfe6l
Large numbers of partisans beset both sides. Those on the Ukrainian side caught behind the lines in Occupied Ukraine seem more active and receive assistance from Ukrainian special operations forces in sabotage and assassinations. The Russian simps behind Ukrainian lines tend to be agents-in-place inserted into Ukrainian government and military organizations years ago. They are augmented by low-level people occupied with spotting and reporting on troop movements and weapons systems as well as doing battle damage assessment of Russian artillery and missile strikes. Here are some being rounded up.
SBU counter-intelligence officers "closed" two more men who were hunting HIMARS .💙💛
They collected and transmitted information about the location of the Armed Forces and the deployment of "HIMARS", recorded the movement of the #Ukrainen Defense Forces, and also reported on the… pic.twitter.com/rIWCWcAhYn
Sometimes the people rounded up are more pathetic than nefarious. Here is
#Ukraine's arrested an infamous pro-Russian blogger who says he's originally Chilean but is thought to be an American citizen. "Gonzalo Lira" has lived in Kharkiv for many years.
“Gonzalo Lira” lives in Kharkiv. He is under house arrest. Last week Ukrainian authorities took him into custody again.
Surrender By Drone Returns
One of the phenomena of the First Gulf War was Iraqi troops surrendering to US drones. This is happening in Ukraine. Note the troop density. This guy is the only soldier for about 100 yards in any direction. I don’t blame him.
🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Russian soldier pleads from Ukrainian soldiers to not kill him because he wants to surrender. The AFU send another drone with a message to follow it so that he can surrender.
The Russians try to kill him with mortar rounds. Eventually he makes it safely. 🙏 pic.twitter.com/8YovZZ2Zc9
The last video shows a Russian soldier surrendering to a drone. This shows another one driven to despair by a drone. Note the extreme isolation of this man. Was he put here by his chain of command? Or is he a straggler? Anyway, this is a graphic video, so watch it at your discretion.
Compare and contrast the tactics of a Ukrainian Army sniper and one from Wagner Group. One of these guys has been trained; the other is running off testosterone and stupid pills.
388. The sniper film in tweet 387 is likely from March (see also twt 307). The🇺🇦Presidential Brigade's 'Ghost group' have been in Bakhmut since late February. On 28/03 they put their kills there at 183. On 28/04 a total of 246 kills. On 30/04 they report 2 more. Film from 30/04. pic.twitter.com/WrxTSHztcy
390. Contrast the UAF sniper in twt 389 with this Wagner media sniper. As I said I know little about sniping but I see no concealment on man or gun, a barrel that sticks out the window in broad daylight and a highly visible white symbol contrasted on his black hat. Kind of crap. pic.twitter.com/yeo4p7lerQ
One of those guys is going to survive the war, the other is not.
Holding the Line
There has been a lot of discussion of the Russian defensive lines. Much of it is along these lines.
1/ Thread: Analysis of Russian defensive network and field fortifications on Kopani-Robotyne-Tokmak sector of the Zaporizhzhia front. This analysis was done using Sentinel Hub EO imagery and commercially available very high-resolution satellite imagery by Airbus DS Pléiades Neo. pic.twitter.com/6DQJLgEKvk
I don’t want to go into a lengthy critique here, but the up-close images we’ve seen of the trenches, or the video I’ve included in this update, don’t show a particularly functional trench system. I’ve discussed this before, Putin’s War, Week 34. False Flags, Martial Law, and ‘Dammed if You Do and Dammed if You Don’t’. A trench line only has to be breached at one place, and the rest of the line can be cleared by attacking it from the rear and flanks. The biggest problem is that a trench system is only useful if manned at adequate levels and a mobile reserve exists to block penetrations. Unless some plan is made for an orderly retreat, forward trenches become cut off and forced to surrender. If you look at the scale of the diagram above, the lines are several miles apart, with no connecting trenches for movement between them. Good luck if you want to hoof it and hope you can outrun a mechanized force spilling through a breach.
This is a great Twitter thread on what NATO doctrine calls for to defend a 30km stretch of fortifications against a peer opponent’s attempt to breach it.
How many troops and how much equipment is needed to hold a defensive line in a peer-level conflict: estimates from a NATO member’s handbook about holding 30km of front against mechanized & tank divisions:
A first trench line to slow down the attack: around 300 troops per km
or 9,000 troops in total. Behind this trench: 600 main battle tanks, 900 infantry fighting vehicles, and 22,000 troops in two lines for a mobile defense. Those 31,000 troops have: • 180 Spike ATGM launchers • 900 Panzerfaust 3 launchers • 240+ 81/120mm mortars
At least 240+ 155m howitzers, and 2x medium range and 3x short range air defense battalions to back these troops up. In total 54,000 troops should be deployed to hold 30km of front, with an additional 36,000 troops as maneuver reserve if the enemy should be able to break out.
That maneuver reserve needs to have 400 main battle tanks, 600 infantry fighting vehicles, 180 155mm howitzers.
In total 90,000 troops are needed to defend a front of 30km against a peer level enemy, which commits 8 to 10 tank and motor rifle divisions for a major offensive.
This one is a bit out of my wheelhouse so to speak, however, there are tried and true methods of breaching fixed fortifications. Which is why they haven’t been used much since WWI.
Northern Front
Donbas
Counteroffensive in Bakhmut
Last week Russia carried out a large-scale incendiary attack on Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut.
In retrospect, this may be seen as Russia’s last hurrah in the battle for that city.
Over the last couple of days, Ukraine has launched small-scale counteroffensives on the flanks of the Russian pincer movement (movement in terms of a military maneuver, not actual physical movement), attempting to encircle Bakhmut. Bakhmut, you’ll recall, is the Donbas industrial city that has been under siege by the Russians for over 280 days.
One of the things the pro-Russia “what about Bakhmut?” crowd misses is that when you attempt a double envelopment, you create two salients of your own that are vulnerable to being cut off. The counterattack at the base of the salient is Tactics 101 stuff. Now Russia has to respond to the penetration. First, they have to decide what to do about their troops to the west of the attack, who are now threatened with being cut off. Do they abandon that salient and withdraw to a more defensible line? Or do they double down and try to hold? If they do try to hold, the troops needed to shore up the line have to come from the troops currently trying to take Bakhmut. Or they must be pulled from defensive positions elsewhere, creating another weak spot.
Appears Russia 🇷🇺 may have lost 3 square KMs south of Bakhmut. Biggest Ukraine 🇺🇦gain in Bakhmut in a long time.
It is NOT thought to be part of the anticipated counteroffensive.
There is video (naturally) of part of this attack. This should concern Russia as much as the attack.
Clips from the attack are interspersed with snippets of Wagner chieftain Prigozhin talking smack about the Russian unit that had its ass handed to it. First, you see armor hitting the treeline and barreling through, stopping long enough to crush holdouts under their tracks (1:55). At 0:53, Ukrainian infantry dismounts and starts clearing the trenches. Russian infantry fighting vehicles are taken under fire by artillery at 1:11. This is the second attack video I’ve seen where infantry and armor work in concert. Note the low troop density in the defensive positions. The next time you read stories woofing about Russian fortifications, keep in mind that they have to fill those trenches with people. The dismounted Ukrainian infantry outnumber the defenders. There are no Russian anti-tank weapons in use.
I don’t know how far in advance Streiff writes these reviews before they actually get published so it may not have been known at the time of writing, but, the UAF has hit the northern salient surrounding Bakhmut near Soledar (near the top of the red blob on the map above) earlier today and rolled up about 15km of territory there. There are reports of UAF troops crossing the rail tracks at Blahodatne NW of Soledar. I don’t believe this is the start of the offensive tho, it is likely a local counterattack that was more successful than hoped.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Population Evacuation I touched on this above but wanted to highlight it here as this is where most observers expect the Ukrainian counteroffensive to take place. This happened in Kherson and Kharkiv before the last Ukrainian counteroffensives.
#Russian occupation authorities announced the forced removal of 70,000 civilians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to areas deeper in the Russian-occupied rear under the guise of evacuations. 6/6 pic.twitter.com/4P2ByHwdDp
I’ve posted on this subject before. Ever since the Russian campaign against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure petered out in failure, Russia’s missile attacks have overwhelmingly focused on civilian targets. It happens too frequently for it to be anything other than the intended outcome.
For the Nth time, Russia is a terrorist state. The ONLY purpose of the continuing attacks on civilian buildings is terror.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Russia Claims a 20+ Drone Swarm Was Defeated
Ukraine has hit Occupied Crimea with drone attacks repeatedly. The Russians claim, with little evidence, that a swarm of over 20 drones was defeated Saturday night. This is the evidence.
Oleg Kryuchkov, adviser to the head of the Russian occupied Crimea, showed a photo of a drone that reportedly attacked the peninsula overnight. No damage to the drone can be seen, very soft landing? pic.twitter.com/VU2Twl4g6s
The Russian Black Sea Fleet has reduced the number of ships stationed in Sevastopol. The most likely reason is the frequency of Ukrainian drone attacks on that facility.
BLACK SEA BAIL: Fearing increased Ukraine missile strikes, Russia has moved most of its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to safer waters in Russian territory. https://t.co/jFVKVePdaApic.twitter.com/bsGBXN8S9I
It could also be that the Russians do not have enough fuel there to keep all the shipping in that port. Just two weeks ago a UA drone damaged one of the major tank farms that serviced the port at Sebastapol. One tank was completely destroyed, another badly damaged and the whole facility rendered inoperable.
Russia
Russia Claims a Drone Attack Was Foiled
Ivanovo is about 160 miles northeast of Moscow. There is no way to evaluate the accuracy of this claim, but it is a candid admission by the FSB that Ukrainian partisans are operating deep inside Russia.
The Russian Federal Security Service prevented an attack by drones loaded with explosives on the Severny military airfield in the Ivanovo region, the security service said.
In the course of operational activities, "a sabotage group" (of course, from Ukraine) was identified and… pic.twitter.com/RH6n7g2lit
Zakhar Prilepin, a Russian propagandist for the Ukraine war, narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. This is, by my count, three attacks on prominent war supporters.
⚡ Russian media: Pro-war Russian writer hospitalized after car explosion.
Russian writer Zakhar Prilepin, known for his pro-war views, is hospitalized after his car exploded in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast in what appears to be an assassination attempt, Russian media RBC reported. pic.twitter.com/vk5wjMVN4V
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 6, 2023
I am not convinced the targeted attacks on Russians and Russian collaborators in occupied territories are partisans. There is a lesser known UA intelligence service called the GUR. It’s my understanding that they have been carrying out wet-work in the occupied territories since 2015 or so. One of the things I’ve seen talked about on twitter and telegram is that the GUR will continue that type of thing after the war ends, and that any Russian involved in any kind of war crime will be a target if they leave Russia. Think Mossad in the 70’s and 80’s. If that is anywhere close to what happens there will be Russian blood flowing in the streets of European cities for the foreseeable future. In case you didn’t know, it is believed that the GUR was responsible for the truck bomb that detonated on the Kerch strait bridge. If they’re willing to do that with an unwitting driver, just think about what they’d be willing to do to actual perps.
What’s Next?
I think we’re on the cusp of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive. I’m still of the opinion that the main thrust of the attack will happen in Zaporizhzhia on the axis Tokmak-Melitopol. After the last week, I think we will see a supporting offensive launched in the direction of Bakhmut to freeze that portion of the Russian line and mobile reserve in place and to stick a thumb in Russia’s eye.
More and more video demonstrates that Ukraine has moved beyond the “one tank, one battle” method of operation we saw so frequently over the last year to a command structure capable of aggressive use of armor and infantry together. I don’t think the Russians have the troop density necessary to defend the fortifications they have constructed. More importantly, I don’t think they can disengage their front-line forces and carry out an orderly retrograde operation when that first fortification belt is breached.
A lot of evidence seems to indicate that the Russians are contemplating a withdrawal to the status quo ante of February 24, 2022. Civilians and occupation government infrastructure are being moved toward Russia and Crimea in a similar pattern to what we saw last fall. Such a move with the Ukrainian offensive falling on mostly empty space could signal that Russia is ready to try to extend the war by other means at the negotiating table.
Welcome back to the Ukraine Update. Today marks the 435th day of combat operations.
The ground combat action this week was not high-intensity unless you were being shot at. But some interesting things are happening. Ukraine has kicked off two small-scale offensive operations and made numerous strikes at logistics targets inside Russia. These, I believe, are in support of the coming offensive.
Away from the battlefield, the major theme was Russia’s eroding influence. China, India, and Brazil, all thought to be friendly with Russia, voted to condemn Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine and Georgia in a UN General Assembly vote. Russia could count only on the votes of such powerhouses as Syria, Belarus, and Cuba. Finland, forced into NATO by Putin’s War, is in talks to establish US military bases in Finland. If Putin’s fear before the war was being “encircled,” he’s probably having a case of the heebie-jeebies over this.
I’ve been doing these updates longer than I’d imagined possible. Here are links to some of the more recent ones.
My take on this is that it’s a Kremlin false flag. This is based on a couple of factors. First, whenever there has been a major setback the Russians have denied, deflected and outright lied about it. Think back to the situation with the Moskva sinking. I also have questions about the videos released. Why are they hi-def? How did they get released so soon? Keep in mind the FSB controls all the video cameras in the area of the ‘strike’. There are also good reasons for it not to have been the Ukrainians. Primarily, the UAF wants longer ranged fires capability like ATACMS and the US is concerned they will be used to strike deep into Russia. An attack on Moscow now would be very counterproductive as applies to the ATACMS question.
If You Want a Friend, Get a Dog
Tuesday, the UN General Assembly voted on a resolution that included, “Recognizing also that the unprecedented challenges now facing Europe include the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine, and against Georgia prior to that…”
While Russia is once again hitting Ukraine with missiles, the UN adopts a resolution calling it an aggressor. But the main thing is who voted for her: Armenia, Brazil, Kazakhstan, China. pic.twitter.com/qgDanlu2G6
From the six-member (Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan), KMart Blue Light Special answer to NATO that Russia lords over, Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia and Kazakhstan voted to condemn Russia as the aggressor. Russia and Belarus voted no. The others abstained.
Russia’s alleged economic partnership to rival NATO, the Eurasian Economic Union has five members ((Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia); two voted in favor of the resolution, Armenia and Kazakhstan. Kyrgyzstan abstained. The organization has three “observer” nations, Cuba, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. Moldova voted in favor, and Uzbekistan abstained.
Among Vladimir Putin’s fluffers on the right, there has been a lot of talk about the “BRICS” economic group (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) that will challenge the EU. Still, even here, only Russia voted no. South Africa abstained, while Brazil, India, and China voted yes.
Labeling Russia as an aggressor by the UN General Assembly is a blow to Russia’s prestige. It should destroy the stupid “Ukraine started the war” argument once and for all, but it won’t because the people pushing that line are unconcerned with the truth.
In as much as the UN is anything but a way for unelected bureaucrats to line their pockets this is kind of a big deal. Especially the part where Russia’s putative allies voted for naming them as the aggressor state.
I’m a Strategic Genius, Part Three
Before the war, Vladimir Putin’s fan club proclaimed him a virtuoso strategist who single-handedly outplayed all of his adversaries. The invasion of Ukraine has shown it to be quite the opposite. Russia has destroyed Moscow’s influence. The Russian diaspora in Eastern and Central Europe, the base for Russian information and intelligence operations, has been isolated. Russian is being eliminated from the public school curriculum, and the push to have Russia declared an official second language in several countries has died. The Russian minority in Estonia is becoming Estonian at a rapid pace.
One of the reasons Putin gave for invading Ukraine was NATO expansion. As a direct result of the invasion, Finland cast off over 70 years of neutrality and, at times, near Soviet satellite status to become a member of NATO. Sweden only needs to cut a deal with Turkey to become a full member.
Now Finland has announced that it is in negotiations to permit the stationing of US military forces on Finnish territory.
Finland is negotiating a defensive cooperation agreement with the United States, which, among other things, allows the construction of American military bases on Finnish territory.
With Putin’s leadership, the dissolution of the Russian Federation seems a real possibility.
This is the law of unintended consequences on full display. Although, I tend to think had Russia been more successful last year, none of this would have happened.
New Weapons Pledges
The latest round of the Ramstein Contact Group produced additional pledges of support—the most significant come from the US and Great Britain.
New on the UK MoD procurement website as of this morning – a tender for engineering equipment! This fits exactly with what @noclador discussed on @MriyaReport.
— Domen Prešern, also on bsky (@domenpresern) May 2, 2023
Casualty Data
Monday, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby made some waves by floating an “official” estimate that the Russians have lost 100,000 killed and wounded in the fight for Bakhmut.
“The Russian offensive on Bakhmut failed, the Russian Federation lost 100,000 killed and wounded in five months”-John Kirby pic.twitter.com/PZ9XDP06DC
I don’t know if that is accurate or not. Some have said that Kirby meant to reference the entire theater of operations, not the one battlefield. I don’t intend to argue it one way or another. I think it is safe to say that Ukraine is the bloodiest war we’ve seen since the Korean War. Despite what Zelensky’s detractors and Putin’s fluffers say, I think it is also safe to say that Russia is much more profligate about soldiers’ lives than Ukraine.
Kirby, or someone else at the Pentagon corrected the initial statement, the 100k number was for the entire theater during that time period and not just at Bakhmut. I would point out though that the lion’s share of combat during the time frame referenced was in the Bakhmut area.
Russia’s Hacking Expertise May be Vaporware
Putin’s War in Ukraine has produced a lot of shocks. The Russian Air Force was unable to establish air superiority. The Russian Army displayed a stunning level of operational and tactical incompetence. The Russian PR machine was stomped flat, except for a handful of paid shills. However, the biggest surprise was the ineffectual cyberwar capability that Russia demonstrated. For a country that allegedly “meddled” in a non-trivial way in the US election in 2016, it was amazingly inept. The Ukrainians swiftly worked around Russian attacks, and their political and military operations were unimpeded by Russian hackers.
This last week the Ukrainians have shown themselves to be no slouches.
Hacked conference
Ukraine hacked a Russian-Iranian conference, which featured senior officials, such as Iran's ambassador to Russia, Iranian deputy foreign minister, and Russian government and nuclear industry representatives, warning participants that they will be held responsible for war crimes. pic.twitter.com/wmNNtLc0qJ
⚡️An unknown hacker hacked the wallets of the Russian security services 🇷🇺 & sent money to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine 🇺🇦.
The hacker managed to identify and break into 968 crypto wallets that are used by the GRU 🇷🇺, SVR 🇷🇺, & FSB 🇷🇺for their covert operations. pic.twitter.com/XyK6I88nkM
Read the story at the link, but Sergey Morgachev (pictured above) is one of the guys Robert Mueller’s cretins succeeded in indicting. The hackers stole his passport info, driver’s license, and personal papers, and they used his checking account to buy “sex toys, FBI memorabilia, and gay pride paraphernalia.”
This is close to a 10×10 on the FAFO scale.
Before the war, Ukraine has a very robust coding industry. Its a small step from writing code to hacking, so it’s no wonder they’ve been successful.
More Attacks on Civilians
Early Friday, the Russian military launched a volley of 23 cruise missiles against Ukrainian cities. Reports indicate that 21 were shot down. The two that leaked through caused damage and casualties in the cities of Dnipro and Uman.
The Russian Defense Ministry celebrated on social media.
“Right on target.”
This message and image was published by Russia’s Ministry of Defense on its Telegram channel five hours after Russian missiles struck civilian buildings in Dnipro and Uman, killing at least 13 Ukrainians.
Sunday night, Russian strategic bombers launched 18 cruise missiles at targets in Ukraine. Although most were shot down, there are no reports of significant casualties.
The Ukrainian Air Force says 9 Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers from Murmansk Oblast and two Tu-160 strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea area launched 18 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, 15 of which were shot down.https://t.co/gEeMSfSIGepic.twitter.com/gEDnRsvWa2
Thursday night, Russia launched a wave of Iranian-made suicide drones. There were no reports of fatalities or significant damage.
🔥Ukraine's Forces destroyed 1 russian reconnaissance drone and 18 out of 24 Iranian «Shahed-136/131» drones russia sent to attack Ukraine this night pic.twitter.com/BozSGfCHJ8
I don’t know how many times I can say this; Russia is a terrorist state. The attacks on civilian apartment blocks and electrical substations serves no other purpose than terror.
Russia Broadcasts Fake Attacks
Russian state-owned Rossiya-1 TV channel showed the video of a building in Uman, destroyed by the Russian rocket as a video of Ukraine shelling "DPR".
Two things about this item. First, this kind of thing plays well with the Russian populace, true or not. Second, it’s gas-lighting as official policy.
How It Started…How It Ended
Monday, a story hit Russian Telegram channels and quickly ended up on social media that a train loaded with S-300 surface-to-air missiles had been destroyed by Russian fires in Pavlohrad. This was significant for two reasons. First, Ukraine is facing what is believed to be a shortage of surface-to-air missiles, particularly those capable of engaging targets at long-range and high altitudes like the S-300. Second, the Russian military has proven utterly inept and interdicting military supplies coming primarily from Poland. A successful attack on a major shipment of munitions would mark a major change in the dynamics of the war.
Russian Sources are claiming that the Explosions at the Rail Yard near the City of Pavlohrad were the result of a Missile Strike against 2 Divisions of up to 16 S-300 Launchers including Ammunition that was heading towards the Front; so far there is No Visual Evidence of this. pic.twitter.com/6JSs18e0Ma
When more information became available, the story changed. The attack was on a storage area at a chemical plant where out-of-date missiles were stored for decommissioning. This is not to say the strike wasn’t effective. The blast caused extensive damage. Civilians had to be evacuated. And the fuel and explosives from the old missiles that could be recycled into newer weapons were lost. But the attack did not show anything other than an attack on a static, well-documented target.
Russians managed to hit a chemical plant near Pavlohrad, where 38 old soviet RT-23 ICBM with tonnes of rocket fuel were stored for decommission. The explosions damaged a nearby residential areas. pic.twitter.com/XKkl3iaz8O
When I first saw this I questioned it. The UAF has done an admirable job of not having big stockpiles of munitions of any kind all in one place. Why would they have a big one at Pavlohrad, only 80 miles from Donetsk city?
Prigozhin Pulls Fire Alarm on Wagner Group Status
Wagner chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin is pushing the panic button, at least publicly. He’s accusing the Russian military of depriving his men of ammunition and fire support and says that the Wagner Group contingent in Ukraine may cease to exist unless things change.
Prigozhin takes into account that Wagner will cease to exist in the near future if the ammunition problems are not solved. pic.twitter.com/8wPrn88EUA
As with so many things in this war, it is difficult to parse out the real from the make-believe and determine who is doing what to whom. Prigozhin’s association with Putin leads to the conclusion that he is being used as a stalking horse to voice Putin’s dissatisfaction with the Russian military. Otherwise, it is hard to see how he could have survived this long. If things in Bakhmut are not going all that well, and there are hints on Russian Telegram that they aren’t, then this is a way of disengaging Wagner Group’s reputation from any debacle.
Regardless, this announcement means something, even if we’re not sure exactly what.
I’ve said this before, but I think Prigozhin is setting himself up for the end of the Putin regime.
War Crimes Admission on a Television Show
On the television show Law & Order, we are repeatedly told that one of the exceptions to the hearsay rule is an “admission against penal interest.” What you’re about to see might be a textbook example.
If you’ll recall, when Russian troops rolled into Kherson in a move that we now know was facilitated by Russian-owned commanders in the Ukrainian Army and intelligence services, they were not met with cheers. They were met with sullen crowds and with pro-Ukraine protests.
A pro-Ukrainian demonstration in Kherson on 13th March, 2022, one year ago.
During occupation, many residents risked their lives, participating in partisan movements. Many of them were tortured and killed.
Here is Pavel Gubarev, a key figure during the first Russian invasion of Ukraine, crediting his wife with organizing summary executions to crush the demonstrations.
Pavel Gubarev, former leader of Donetsk pro-Russian forces, so-called "people's governor" of Donbas, openly admitted that his wife, Ekaterina Gubareva, is an accomplice in war crimes.
Gubareva was appointed the deputy of the "head" of Kherson region in the spring of 2022. She… pic.twitter.com/x1eDSnvMgZ
I really, really hope there is a Nuremberg style war crimes trial when this is all said and done. Those responsible for these acts need to be put down like the rabid dogs they are.
Russia’s Logistics Chief Fired
After only seven months, Colonel General Mikhail Mizintev has been fired from his position as the Russian Army’s logistics chief.
Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev had only been in the job for seven months. https://t.co/UAKo19iwDC
The churn in the senior ranks of the Russian Army has been remarkable. For an army failing in the way the Russian Army has failed in Ukraine, heads should roll. General George C. Marshall did that in the early days of World War II. Success in peacetime is no sure predictor of success on the battlefield. What is notable about the Russian purge is that no one is forced into retirement. Generals who are fired because they are incompetent on the battlefield are just sent somewhere else to f*** up yet again. This hints at the strength of seniority and the “good ol’ boys” club in the Russian Army.
I look at this slightly differently than Streiff. There aren’t any capable senior officers in the Russian military period. Anyone with any kind of talent got out and are doing something else. As I’ve said before, there isn’t a Rossokovskii or Zhukov waiting in the wings, only Kulik’s.
Operational Level
This week showed the beginnings of the shaping operations preparing the way for Ukraine’s spring offensive. Fuel tank farms were hit in Crimea and Russia. Electric substations powering trains were targeted. Partisan operations struck at collaborators in Occupied Ukraine and military freight trains in Russia.
More than ever, the main objective seems to be on the axis of Tokmak-Melitopol with an objective of severing all rail and highway communications from Occupied Kherson and Crimea to Russia except for the minimal traffic allowed across the heavily damaged Kerch Strait bridge. I think we will also see a localized offensive aimed at “winning” the Battle of Bakmut via an attack north of the city.
Russian Winter Offensive Fizzles
We can conclusively say that the “winter offensive” that had been predicted to restore Russia’s fortunes in the war has failed. Below is an animation of the changes in the front lines from January to April.
This is the "great offensive" of the Russians from January to April. Of course, they advanced, but clearly not in the way they were going to pic.twitter.com/k3fHDTtF5A
Fighting continues in some hotspots, primarily Bakhmut. In addition, there are unconfirmed Russian reports of a local Ukrainian offensive. Emphasize “unconfirmed.”
⚡️🇷🇺Russian military journalists report that 🇺🇦Ukrainian troops penetrated their defense by 1.5 kilometers in the Avdiyivka area
What is interesting is that the distance from Avdiivka to Donetsk is only 13 kilometers pic.twitter.com/BkfihHGZim
— 🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 (@front_ukrainian) May 2, 2023
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Russian Headquarters Hit
This strike allegedly interrupted a May Day party for Russian officers. We saw this happen a couple of times over Christmas. It shows that the cell network used by the Russians in Occupied Ukraine is deeply compromised and that the slavish devotion to using cell phones continues to provide windfalls to Ukrainian rocket artillery.
Though the tweet refers to some mope working for the police, a bit of research shows that it was the deputy head of internal security for Melitopol who was assassinated. Melitopol, if you’ll recall, is the city I think will be the operational objective of the Ukrainian spring offensive.
Ukrainian partisans in Russian-occupied Melitopol eliminated the collaborator Alexander Mishchenko. He was working for the police of the occupation. His car was blown up.
For the first time, areas away from the line of contact have seen the most action. My assessment is that this indicates the Ukrainians are conducting shaping operations to limit the ability of the Russian Army to respond to an offensive.
Crimea
UAV Strikes Oil Depot in Sevastopol
Over the weekend, a major oil depot in Crimea was hit. The strike shows increasing sophistication in Ukrainian drone strike operations. The drones were routed out to sea and around the land-facing radar and missile systems defending the area.
At night, in the Kazachya Bay of Sevastopol, Crimea, Russian oil depot was attacked by drones. pic.twitter.com/btoTJIgxQ6
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2023
The fire may be out, but questions remain regarding the size, origin, and payload of the drone used in last night's attack.
This UAV strike on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was unsuccessful but has a psychological effect.
The Air Defenses of the Russian Black Sea’s Fleet has reportedly “Repelled” a Ukrainian Drone Attack that was attempted to Target the Naval Port in the Crimean City of Sevastopol with Drones observed being Shot Down to the North of Sevastopol and the Town of Zaozerne. pic.twitter.com/BSzVjnVE8e
Russia UAV Strikes Electric Substation in Belgorod
I covered another strike on Belgorod’s electrical grid in the last update. This does more than affect the city; the substations serve the electric railroad lines bringing supplies from interior Russia to the front.
Drone attack in the Belgorod region According to local Russian publics, five drones flew over an electrical substation in the village of Nezhegol, Shebekinsky city district. pic.twitter.com/CEYwlyzjpQ
I’m not exactly sure what happened here. The video doesn’t show any military targets, and not enough civilians were killed to classify it as retaliation for Russia’s missile attacks on Ukrainian cities.
Two Russian Army Freight Trains Derailed in Bryansk
This was the work of either partisans or Ukrainian special forces. I tend to believe the latter, as Russian military freights were hit both times instead of random trains.
A bomb has derailed a cargo train transporting fuel for the Russian Army near Bryansk, Russia.
It remains to be seen whether done by some Russian resistance group or Ukrainian special forces working in Russia.
Looks for more strikes at logistics targets deep in Occupied Ukraine, Crimea, and the border areas of Russia. Keep an eye on the battle areas around Avdiivka, Vuldehar, and Bakhmut. Minor Ukrainian offensive actions are underway near those cities. My guess is that Ukraine will open its spring offensive in one of those areas to freeze Russian forces in place and pull their reserves, particularly artillery, to the scene of what looks like the offensive. The real attack will happen somewhere else…like aimed at Melitopol.
Week 61 of Putin’s War didn’t see a lot of battlefield action — YMMV if you were there — but there were a lot of moving parts. The call from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Chinese Junfa Xi Jinping drew a lot of attention. The Russian Navy’s Black Sea homeport of Sevastopol was attacked for the fourth time. Something kinetic — we’re not sure what — happened at the Pushkin military airfield outside of St. Petersburg. The Ukrainian Army carried out a surprise, nearly a stealth, river crossing in Kherson Oblast. And some open-source intelligence reports indicate that the Russian Army is stretched very thin in Ukraine.
We continue to wait for the Ukrainian spring offensive as we can see the last gasp of Russia’s winter offensive play out in Donbas.
China’s Xi Jinping has been trying to position himself as the peacemaker who will end Putin’s War in Ukraine. Though China is supplying Russia with non-lethal aid, it has stopped short of selling arms to Putin. Wednesday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky initiated a call to Xi.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and China’s Xi Jinping spoke by phone Wednesday — their first conversation since Russia invaded Ukraine 14 months ago and a signal that Beijing may be angling to play a mediatory role. https://t.co/pj1bVYIxrh
The readouts issued by Kiev and Beijing are Delphic. China says it “will neither watch the fire from afar, nor add fuel to the flames, let alone exploit the situation for profit.” It also said, “mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity is the political foundation of China-Ukraine relations.” Zelensky made a play for China’s support of the Black Sea Grain Deal and to pressure Russia to end the war. China will send an envoy to Ukraine to “assist” in negotiations.
My guess is that not much more is going to come from this beyond China’s PR campaign to increase its international status at the expense of the EU and the US.
I think there is more to Xi and the CCP offering mediation than it being a simple PR campaign. The PRC has been flexing its muscles all over the world, and this is an extension of that. I’d also remind you of the recent statement from Macron about ‘de-coupling’ from the US.
A Church? Or an Arm of the FSB?
This issue keeps coming up in some circles on the right who want to paint Putin’s War in Ukraine as a struggle between the patriotic, Christian conservatives (this would be Russia) and atheistic, Nazi, though possibly Jewish-controlled globalists (Ukraine). One of the cases that never seems to go away is the Ukrainian government’s decision to ban the Ukrainian Orthodox Church. This is portrayed as a ban on the dominant form of Christianity in Ukraine. The truth is quite a bit different. The Orthodox Church of Ukraine (Kiev) is healthy and active and is now in possession of the historical buildings owned by the Ukrainian government. The Moscow-owned Ukrainian Orthodox Church was targeted because of its overt support of the Russian invasion.
For years, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate promoted the “Russian world” ideology that drives Russia’s war. A religious expert explains how the church in Ukraine ended up in the Kremlin’s service — and what should be done about it.https://t.co/lxFXqWHihu
I brought this same point up back when Kyiv first moved to re-establish control over the government owned churches and monasteries a few months ago. Keep in mind that the Moscow Patriarch was a KGB/FSB agent and is a close personal friend of Putin.
US Military Observers in Ukraine?
This article is making the rounds.
A great piece from @EvansRyan202 I especially agree with the loss for the U.S. not having battlefield observers in Ukraine. No amount of study from afar can replace what I have learned on my trips to Ukraine or when I went to Nagorno-Karabakh. https://t.co/WXqbHLMTVe
This is one of those ideas that gets an “A” for effort and an “F” for judgment.
Military observers have been a feature of nearly every war, except the World War variety, since the US Civil War. For example, both Pershing and MacArthur were US military observers during the Russo-Japanese War. No doubt, embedding people in Ukrainian units would provide a lot of very useful, real-time feedback and insights into how military operations are conducted and the performance of NATO…and Russian…equipment under field conditions.
On the other hand, after seeing the way a lot of people got their panties all wet and wadded over 14, count ’em, 14 US Special Forces soldiers attached to the Kiev embassy to track US weapons deliveries (Putin’s War, Week 59. Russia Goes ISIS and Waiting for General Mud to Take a Break), there would be brain matter splashed on computer monitors across the nation at the thought of sending official observers. Twice the Russians have pushed out stories about secret NATO command and control facilities being bombed with the death of dozens of NATO generals who actually run the war. Few things could better play into the Russian narrative of “we’re fighting NATO, not Ukraine” better than US military observers embedded in Ukrainian headquarters.
There are good reasons to keep US observers out of UAF headquarters from the Ukrainian perspective as well. Foremost among them is the fact that the DOD cannot keep things secret. The first person with an ax to grind will leak anything an observer reports the first time it suits them.
….and another sudden death from Putin's party today. Jasharbek Uzdenov , Putin's United Russia MP, has died . He is already the 2nd dead today! After Russia's full invasion of Ukraine, he claimed it was "a necessary decision". pic.twitter.com/ijcUK4gGTP
There have been at least 42 ‘mysterious’ deaths among the Russian ruling elite since the SMO started. I say at least because when I went to look for the number, not all the deaths were listed. Being rich and powerful in Russia is detrimental to one’s health. . .
Operational Level
Russia Army Without a Reserve?
I’m skeptical of any attempt to give a granular look at the armies on either side. While some OPSEC sloppiness exists, both sides are good about keeping unit locations and strength. The folks at the Institute for the Study of War, whose work I respect, have developed what they feel is an accurate representation of the location of all known Russian Army units. While I can’t vouch for its accuracy, it tells a grim story if it is a remote approximation of the truth. Nearly all Russian units identified since the invasion began are deployed along the line of contact with the Ukrainian Army. Only two of 12 Combined Arms Armies (roughly a US division) are not accounted for. If this is the size of the Russian operational reserve available to respond to a Ukrainian offensive, it is woefully inadequate. Read the thread.
The Institute for the Study of War is, in my opinion, one of the best sources for unbiased assessment and analysis on conflicts throughout the world. I’ve read through the thread and the accompanying article at ISW . The picture painted is a grim one for the Russian military. The article linked above has a detailed breakdown of what RU formations are where, based on open source intel.
Weather
Weather and its effects on men, mobility, and equipment is one of the primary planning considerations for any military operation. This is definitely the case in Ukraine, where the soil becomes an impassable semi-liquid during the season known as rasputitsa (Russian) or bezdorizhzhia (Ukrainian).
From these videos, we can see that the season is in full force, but it is definitely abating. When the soil can bear the trauma of hundreds of tracked vehicles traversing without becoming library-paste, we will probably see the Ukrainian spring offensive begin.
This is how the trenches of the soldiers of the Armed Forces of 🇺🇦 in the Zaporizhzhia direction look. In such weather conditions offensive operations are impossible. #RussianUkrainianWar
Ask Herr Feldmarschall Von Manstein about the bezdorizhzhia. Come to think about it, they were fighting in the same area back in 1943, so the comparison is more apt than I initially thought.
Prisoner Exchanges
Prisoner exchanges remain one of the few areas where Russia and Ukraine maintain any semblance of diplomatic contact. This week 44 more Ukrainians returned home. No one on either side seems to care about the number of Russians in the exchange.
44 Ukrainian defenders returned home after a new prisoner exchange. Among them are 36 privates and sergeants and 6 officers. These are regular army soldiers, border guards, national guardsmen and marines.
Ukrainian General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, says the two sides are working on a plan to exchange all prisoners.
"Ukraine is finalizing an 'all for all' prisoner exchange with the Russian Federation," head of GUR Budanov said. pic.twitter.com/1xjuFFbyFd
As my friend, Laocoon, mentioned in the comments a couple of weeks ago:
First this sort of thing makes Ukranians not want to surrender to Russians. Alot of Ukranians are going to prefer to die fighting than have their heads sawn off.
It may make the Wagner Group guys feel tough, but it is going to make their job a lot harder and much more dangerous when every Ukrainian soldier fights to the death.
This kind of illegal order, even if made in hyperbole, will come back to haunt Prigozhin one day when he’s no longer useful to whatever regime rules from the Kremlin.
The killing of prisoners by the Russian military is beginning to take on the air of “another day at the office.” The Ukrainians released this phone intercept. As always, take these releases with a grain of salt, but it does comport with what is happening on the battlefield.
What do you do there? – Cut people’s throats. There’s these POWs. When we got all info out of them, we don’t need ‘em anymore. They call me. I do it. I don’t give a f-ck.
I’m not sure what the Russians gain from prisoner swaps, but they’re fine with me. As far as the war-crime-as-official-policy goes, it’s going to come back and bite Prigozhin and anyone else associated with it squarely on the ass.
Attacks on Civilians
Routine attacks on civilian targets continue to be part of Russia’s military strategy. But, as I’ve said before, they don’t seem to serve any greater purpose than destroying property and killing civilians.
Rescuers have found the body of the second woman killed in the Russian missile attack on the Kupiansk local history museum, a Suspilne Kharkiv correspondent reports from the scene.
After relative calm in Mykolaiv Russia attacked the city with four Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black Sea killing at least one, injuring 23, including 1 child.
American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project reports that the Russians are deporting Ukrainians in occupied areas to Russia and resettling those areas with Russians.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on April 26 that Russia is trying to change the ethnic composition of Ukraine by actively conducting a large-scale resettlement of people mainly from poorer and remote regions of Russia into Ukraine.[1] Malyar noted that the most intensive efforts are ongoing in occupied Luhansk Oblast and remarked that Russia is also deporting Ukrainians and forcibly resettling them in Russia.[2] ISW previously reported on specific instances of Russian authorities overseeing the depopulation and repopulation of areas of occupied Ukraine, particularly in occupied Kherson Oblast over the course of 2022. Ukrainian sources remarked in October 2022 that Russian authorities in then-occupied parts of Kherson Oblast deported large groups of Ukrainian residents to Russia under the guise of humanitarian evacuations and then repopulated their homes with Russian soldiers.[3] Russia may hope to import Russians to fill depopulated areas of Ukraine in order to further integrate occupied areas into Russian socially, administratively, politically, and economically, thereby complicating conditions for the reintegration of these territories into Ukraine.
The speed of this creation of facts on the ground seems to be accelerating.
Putin, in a new decree, declared citizens living in occupied parts of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, but refused to accept Russian Federation citizenship, as foreign citizens https://t.co/8MVORt73hi#Ukraine
Perhaps the random terror attacks directed at Ukrainian cities are intended to create a refugee stream out of Ukraine to add social stress to European nations while depriving Ukraine of the social capital and manpower needed to fight the war and launch a recovery afterward.
The forcible relocation of populations in a war zone is an internationally recognized war crime. While I don’t see Putin in the dock as a possibility, my hope is that anyone else involved in the act is held to account.
New Weapons
M1 Abrams on the Way to Germany
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is expected to announce the move at a Friday press conference after the eleventh meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group here at @RamsteinAirBase
I can’t remember if I gave y’all the info on which model of Abrams tank was being sent to Ukraine. It’s the M1A1 ODS (Operation Desert Storm) variant. They have upgraded optics and fire control systems over the base A1 model. The 31 going to Ukraine came from depot storage. My guess is the ‘maintenance’ they’re going undergo is the removal of the Chobham composite armor. No Abrams with the DU-carbon matrix has ever been exported.
Russian T-14 Armata
The T-14 is Russia’s “Чудо-оружие” or wunderwaffen. It is supposed to be superior to any tank in the West, but other than breaking down in a Victory Day Parade, no one has ever seen one. The total production run is estimated at less than 100.
Now, according to Russian media, the T-14 is in Ukraine, but its role is limited to providing fire support. Click this tweet to see the vaporware the Armata is equipped with.
Yah, no. According to everything I’ve found, there are about 40 fully functional T-14 tanks. And even those have serious drivetrain issues. As far as the sensor suite goes, given the state of the Russian defense industry, all of the claims made about it are aspirational at best.
Combat Operations
Trench Fighting Northwest of Bakhmut
The omnipresent video devices have given us a view of warfare we’ve never experienced. This video is a Ukrainian defense of a bunker and trench complex northwest of Bakhmut. Here are some things to note. A very small number of people do everything. This has been commented on over the years. During World War II, the rule of thumb was that 10% of fighter pilots did 90% of the killing. There is one point where, without the initiative of the camera-guy, the whole thing could’ve gone pear-shaped. It gives a good feel for the claustrophobia of close combat and the sparse troop density in defensive positions.
The video is interesting, though if you are sensitive to close combat footage I don’t recommend you watch. While not particularly gory, it is very intense.
Combined Arms Attack
This video was interesting to me because it is the first time I’ve seen something approaching a company-sized combined arms attack. Other than the lack of artillery and mortar support, this is nearly textbook. There is a mix of tanks and APCs. They are dispersed and attacking in line formation instead of the column formation we usually see. Without the full context, it is hard to judge what happens, but it leads to two quick conclusions.
If this is a unit that has trained in Germany or the UK, then it represents a quantum leap in performance over anything we’ve seen in the past. On the other hand, if this unit has grown organically without outside training, the Ukrainian Army is improving its performance at a fantastic rate.
AFU fighters observe Ukrainian armored vehicles storming Wagner PMC positions on Bakhmut direction pic.twitter.com/slzRjGEHVH
At first glance, this video looks like something you’d see at NTC, a well executed combined arms assault made by well trained and motivated troops. And it is all that, just not at Ft. Irwin. On closer inspection it shows that the UAF is willing and able to learn, breaking free from the old Soviet doctrinal approach and adopting or adapting the more effective western doctrine.
With aggressive employment of longer-ranged air defense systems, this weapon, which is launched from Ukrainian aircraft, makes all Russian installations in Occupied Ukraine vulnerable to attack.
Heh heh, orcs go boom. A couple of things stand out in this clip. First is the accuracy of the bombing. You’ll note that the bombs hit at the bases of the two buildings struck. Second, despite the tweet saying ‘claimed’ it’s pretty clear by the huge secondary explosion that the first building was used for ammo/weapons storage.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP)
Don’t Try This at Home
Epic destruction of a muscovian tanks.
Having destroyed the 1st muscovian tank, the Ukrainian soldier waited for the second one to arrive, the crew of which didn’t see what happened to the first vehicle, destroyed it with a manual anti-tank grenade launcher! ✊🇺🇦❗️ pic.twitter.com/UwNw95axht
— International Observers Ukraine (@INTobservers) April 22, 2023
Someone get those two guys wheelbarrows, they need them to help bear the weight of their giant balls.
Northern Front
Donbas
As always, the big subject in this area is Bakhmut. As of this writing, Bakhmut is still holding. There are advances and retreats by both sides. This interview by Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Eastern Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Bakhmut, is interesting. As always, read with a critical eye.
1/ The Commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrskyi, has given an interesting interview to Interfax-Ukraine. The full interview is worth reading, but his comments about the fighting in Bakhmut are particularly noteworthy: pic.twitter.com/Mq2H03NAJk
The battle for Bakhmut has had me perplexed since it started. I understand that the UAF are fighting (and winning) a battle of attrition there, but frankly, Bakhmut holds no tactical or strategic importance for either side. According to open source reporting, the Russians are using elite VDV (Airborne) and SPETZNAZ troops as assault troops in the Bakhmut sector trying to take the city before the UAF spring offensive kicks off. It seems to me all that the Russians are accomplishing there is degrading their best formations by misusing them.
Southern Front
Kherson
In something of a surprise move, the Ukrainian Army has forced a 12-mile-wide bridgehead across the Dneipr River.
Unpacking this assessment in our change of control of terrain around the Dnipro River delta.
This assessment uses a combination of multi-sourced Russian-provided textual reports about Ukrainian activity in this area as well as available geolocated combat footage. https://t.co/1xrkCXgRfupic.twitter.com/K0ohYs0mQX
I have to admit this is sort of a surprise move as a river crossing is a high-risk operation that can be difficult to sustain. I’d assumed that the Ukrainians would run an economy of force operation in this sector, keeping on hand only the bare minimum of troops necessary to prevent the Russians from crossing the river.
This is what I think happened. The Russians have withdrawn from positions on the Dneipr because they are tenable. This has left a large swath of open territory. The Russian defensive belt in Kherson is mostly unfinished. The red dots on this map mark Russian fortifications identified from satellite imagery. The left flank of the defensive belt ends abruptly near the E97 highway.
The ISW report detailing the Russian Order of Battle has this to say about Kherson.
This has created a window for an opportunistic operation in the area because the Russians assumed Kherson to be safe from attack as it was across a major river and removed from the main area of operations. As a result, it was sparsely manned and chaotically organized.
If the bridgehead can be sustained and reinforced, it is significant. First, it will require Russia to move troops from other areas to Kherson to shore up the front line. Second, the Russian defensive belts are vulnerable to being outflanked by an attack from the bridgehead because they aren’t anchored on anything. If they are outflanked here, the whole line is in jeopardy.
What we don’t know is if this bridgehead is just a diversion to keep the Russian General Staff occupied instead of focusing on the upcoming Ukrainian offensive or if it is a real lodgement with future potential as a launching pad for offensive operations.
This article was published on RedState yesterday afternoon. Since then it has become clear that the Ukrainian position on the east bank of the Dnipro is bigger than initially thought. If, and it’s a big if, the Ukrainians can hold and build on the initial lodgement, the Russians are in trouble in that sector.
Partisan Operations
Sergey Tvetinsky, who was sent out from the Kremlin to be a baby Gauleiter in Kherson, was killed in an explosion in Nova Kakhovka.
Sergey Tvetinsky was killed yesterday in an explosion in Nova Kakhovka, in the Russian-occupied part of the Kherson region.
He was a senior member of the “Just Russia — For Truth Party,” and one of the men sent from Russia to administer the “conquered areas”. pic.twitter.com/t4fVeMj4Yx
🇷🇺BLACK SEA FLEET – SEVASTOPOL🇷🇺 Strilets'ka bay – 0.5M📸 from 23 APR 2023 (12:05 UTC). Wasn't sure if this pier was still used by the 🇷🇺 Navy, but it would appear that it is. Will be interesting to see the 'after' image hopefully today. https://t.co/hxBlY1qj1vpic.twitter.com/S9E9bRO9vA
Of all the things I’ve noticed about this war, one of the standouts to me has been the use of all kinds of drones. The Ukrainians seem to be especially adept at creating new drones and new methods of employment for them. If you don’t think our global adversaries aren’t watching, I’ve got a bridge to sell you in the Florida Keys. . .
Russia
I Hate it When That Happens
A Russian Su-34 bomber aimed for Kharkiv, Ukraine, and struck Belgorod, Russia. I’m glad I don’t have to explain that to my boss. My colleague Joe Cunningham covered the story in Well, It Looks Like Russia Accidentally Bombed Itself on Thursday, but more details have emerged since then.
The bomb was the Russian knock-off of the US Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM). This is a conventional bomb; in this case, it is reported to be the 1100-pound FAB-500 M62) with a kit with GPS, inertial guidance, and folding wings. It converts a weapon that requires the aircraft to be very near the target and which may or may not land close to what you aimed at to one that can be dropped a safe distance away, glide to the target area, and strike with incredible accuracy.
What apparently happened was the Russian Su-34 dropped a pair of glide bombs. The wings didn’t deploy on either. One armed and exploded on impact. The other was a dud. This speaks to either a quality control problem with Russian manufacturing (can you see my shocked face?) or, because there was a 100% failure rate on this sortie, a grave deficiency in the training of the ordnance handlers or pilot. What is unknown is how often this happens, just not over a populated area. The second-order problem is who the f*** thought launching a weapon over a city was a good idea?
~22:03 local time. There are reports that Russian bombers launched a guided bomb in the direction of Kharkiv. A few minutes later, photos of a huge crater in Belgorod appear. Coincidence or not… pic.twitter.com/URSpTs8xxX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 20, 2023
The Russian authorities were initially denying that a second bomb (probably a FAB-500M62 with 300kg payload) came down to Belgorod.
If I were a betting man, I’d say it was an equipment fault. Let’s be honest, the Russian track record on employing cutting edge tech is abysmal.
Explosions in St. Petersburg
This is one of those stories that leaves you guessing. First, Russian media reported explosions at a military airfield near St. Petersburg. Then crickets.
Russian media reported the sounds of explosions near a military airfield south of St. Petersburg.
Explosions were heard near the Pushkin military airfield. This is a co-located airfield, and in addition to the Russian Air Force, the National Guard and others are allowed to use… pic.twitter.com/zBQwEywdcC
If the reports on Russian dispositions are correct, the Russian Army is in a very perilous position. It is trying to prosecute two local offensives, at Bahkmut and Andiivka, as the Ukrainians prepare for their spring offensive. The implication of this is that there is some political objective driving the Russian actions. However, there also doesn’t appear to be a Russian operational reserve to seal off any Ukrainian breaches of the front line.
Using the JDAM-ER opens Russian supply depots and troop concentrations to attack at distances from the front that used to mean safety.
The next move is up to the weather as the wait continues.
Last week, I said I was posting the shortest Ukraine Update ever. That was until today.
The Russians have stopped all offensive operations except those around the Donbas cockpit of Avdiika and Bakhmut. There the situation remains largely unchanged, with the front lines moving back and forth dozens of meters each day. This is the last gasp of the Russian Winter Offensive that was supposed to gain control of the political boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk and bring the whole of the Donbas region under Russian control. However, there are signs that Ukraine is moving in the direction of offensive operations, and I’ll hit on that below.
This kind of document dump, with the unusual provenance first appearing on a Minecraft community Discord server and the fact that some of the documents had been altered, calls everything in the leak into question. For instance, this Washington Post story, based on the leak, claims that Egypt was going to supply Russia with ammunition, but thanks to the mad diplomatic skillz of Antony Blinken and Joe Biden, they decided to send the ammunition to Ukraine. Sorry, I have a lot of trouble believing that.
"Egypt paused a plan to secretly supply rockets to Russia last month following talks with senior U.S. officials and instead decided to produce artillery [152mm and 155mm] ammunition for Ukraine, according to five leaked U.S. intelligence documents."https://t.co/jGYeZAFBN2pic.twitter.com/stv0IXlHJH
Stranger stuff has happened, though I just can’t remember when.
If you want a deeper look into the leak situation, I highly recommend reading the linked stories above. My take on it is that A1C Teixeira got his hands on some stuff he shouldn’t have and wanted to impress his little high school buddies so he posted it. I don’t think he intended for the docs to be shared beyond his little group however. Discord is not known for being a secure platform, and that’s how the docs got into the wild. The story about the former Navy petty officer posing as the ‘Donbas Devushka’ is something that bears some scrutiny, as I’m unclear as to how she’d have gotten her hands on the docs without outside (read: nation state) help.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Plays Sergeant Schultz During Milley Visit
According to reports, when US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley met with Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi in March, Milley pressed the Ukrainian general on details of his weapons stockpiles and his plans for an offensive, he might as well have been meeting with John Banner’s Sergeant Schultz character from the comedy series Hogan’s Heroes.
As leak-prone as Washington is and the way people use classified information for political gain and to settle scores with enemies, it is hard to blame him. What Zaluzhnyi needs to do is keep the supplies coming while letting Milley know as little as possible about dispositions and intentions. I suspect that Milley also wants to remain ignorant of things the Ukrainians are planning so that he isn’t to blame if they are leaked, and he can’t be blamed if targets in Russia are hit.
If I didn’t know better I’d say Zaluzhnyi was a former NCO. All of the really good ones I knew while I was in kept whatever it was they were doing from the command staff. In this case though, there is a good chance that anything told to Milley would get leaked somehow. That’s an added incentive to keep everything on the down-low.
At Least Putin Knows How to Deal With Failure
Last Friday, the Russian Pacific Fleet received orders for a no-notice exercise involving air units, anti-submarine drills, and surface missile firing. Read the whole thread.
"Today, from 9 o'clock (Vladivostok time), the Pacific Fleet in full force was raised on alert and began to bring the Pacific Fleet to the highest degree of combat readiness"
He immediately replaced the commander, Admiral Sergei Avakyants, who had been in command for a decade and reassigned him to Moscow to oversee military sports and patriotic training.
Vladimir Putin fired the admiral Sergei Avakyants, 66, the commander of his Pacific Fleet. The Russian dictator was probably furious that the military drills, that were meant to send a message of strength to the West, were a flop.
We seem to move ours to higher positions of responsibility so long as they have the correct politics, grovel at the altar of Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity, and make a sincere effort to understand “white rage.’
I’m somewhat surprised Admiral Avakyants wasn’t defenestrated. Maybe the Pacific Fleet headquarters building is only a couple of stories tall. Regardless, the Pacific Fleet drill was a flop.
Russian Troll Outed
A major pro-Russian trolling account was outed earlier in the week. “Donbass Devushka,” who alleged to be a Ukrainian native of Donbas and had been exposed to Ukrainian attacks after the first Russian invasion in 2014, turned out to be a separated/retired (I’m not quite sure which is accurate) US Navy petty officer stationed at Whidbey Island, WA. See Intelligence Leaker Jack Teixeira and the Pro-Russian ‘Donbass Devushka’ Show the U.S. Military Brass Are Not Serious.
Having been outed myself by a former colleague, I’m not a huge fan of going after individual people to just f*** with them. On the other hand, I’m a little less sympathetic when you are supporting a genocidal regime and faking your entire life. I doubt that she’s in any real trouble unless she was being paid by the Russian government or a sanctioned entity for her social media posts, but her usefulness to the Russians is definitely over.
NATO Secretary General Visits Kiev
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made his first visit to Kiev. Part of the itinerary was visiting the site of the ongoing war crimes investigation at Bucha. More than any European head of state, Stoltenberg has been the key man in assembling the support necessary for Ukraine to defend its territorial integrity against Russian aggression.
Nato Secretary General @jensstoltenberg is in Kyiv on an unnanounced visit. He paid tribute to fallen Ukrainian defenders and inspected an exhibition of destroyed Russian equipment in central Kyiv 📽️ @DeutscheWellepic.twitter.com/b6UL5nFIMR
Stoltenberg’s invitation to Ukraine to join NATO once this war ends set off fireworks in Moscow.
— Polish text below —
Some dumbhead called Mateusz Morawiecki said that Ukraine had the right to hit Russia, and that he had no worries about NATO’s war against Russia, because the latter would soon lose it. I don’t know who’s going to win, or lose such a war, but…
Some dumbhead called Mateusz Morawiecki said that Ukraine had the right to hit Russia, and that he had no worries about NATO’s war against Russia, because the latter would soon lose it. I don’t know who’s going to win, or lose such a war, but considering Poland’s role as a NATO’s outpost in Europe, this country is sure to disappear together with its stupid prime minister
Dmitry Medvedev is Putin’s tool. He regularly spouts nonsense like this on TV and social media. Unfortunately for him, he is completely divorced from reality.
Russia Rolls Out Two New Recruitment Ads
For all the woofing that goes around on the internet about the manpower advantage that Russia has, there is no denying that it is having a very hard time filling its ranks. The Russ-bots fail to grasp the fact that Russia has manpower throughout the country and that much of that manpower, such as police, border guards, customs service, the navy, the air force, the strategic rocket services, fire departments, etc., can’t be diverted to Ukraine. That’s why first Wagner Group’s Prigozhin and now the regular Army is dredging the prisons and lowest socio-economic classes for recruits.
The first one is more traditional; it pimps the pay and benefits and wouldn’t be out of place in any Western military except the US because there aren’t enough gay and trans characters in the ad.
I’m now seeing more and more army recruitment adverts on Russian TV
The tagline (0:37) is Ты ЖЕ МчжИК. Бчдъ им, which I’m told renders as something like “You’re a man. Be one.” The campaign slogan is “ты чё как не мужик?!” or (something like) “How come you’re not man enough?” The word used for “man” is Muzhik, a word loaded with social connotation in Russia depending on who is saying it to whom. I’m not sure how successful either will be given the growing disaffection with the idea of serving in Ukraine, but if I were to bet on either, I think #2 is going to appeal more to the target audience than #1.
Russian society is quite odd from a modern western perspective. And I don’t mean the hyper-woke 2023 western perspective, it seemed very odd to me back in the mid-90s when I first experienced it. There is a weird obsession with ‘manliness’ that’s at odds with the way a lot of men act in Russia. Back in the 90’s one of the worst insults a man could get was to be described as sounding like a St. Petersburg poet. It meant you were a little effeminate. Despite all that, many men worked hard to sound that way. The word ‘muhzik’ can have those same connotations depending on context. It can also mean something like ‘you’re the man’ in american slang. I’m not sure how effective these ads are going to be, it seems the SMO is becoming less popular by the day.
Russian Media Proposes Its Final Solution to the “Ukrainian Problem”
When all the fluff, and fluffers, are stripped away, the real cause of Putin’s war in Ukraine had nothing to do with NATO or Donbas or Nazis in Kiev. Instead, it boils down to resentment at the actual presence of Ukraine, a nation that Putin and Russian nationalists believe should not exist. Dmitry Medvedev, “Deputy Chair of the Security Council of the Russian Federation,” reaffirms this nearly weekly.
Medvedev saying that Ukraine is and has always been a part of Russia.
Now the state-owned RIA Novosti has published a story on how to solve the Ukrainian problem. Read the whole thread, open the article, right-click, and select “translate” to read the original. The synopsis is below.
Yesterday, RIA Novosti published a lengthy piece titled "What Russia should do with Ukraine", which explains in detail what Russia understands by denazification. It's truly horrific: 1/6 pic.twitter.com/tqvEHco7nl
The special operation revealed that not only the political leadership in Ukraine is Nazi, but also the majority of the population. All Ukrainians who have taken up arms must be eliminated – because they are responsible for the genocide of the Russian people.
Ukrainians disguise their Nazism by calling it a “desire for independence” and a “European way of development”. Ukraine doesn’t have a Nazi party, a Führer or racial laws, but because of its flexibility, Ukrainian Nazism is far more dangerous to the world than Hitler’s Nazism
Denazification means de-Ukrainianisation. Ukrainians are an artificial anti-Russian construct. They should no longer have a national identity. Denazification of Ukraine also means its inevitable de-Europeanisation.
Ukraine’s political elite must be eliminated as it cannot be re-educated. Ordinary Ukrainians must experience all the horrors of war and absorb the experience as a historical lesson and atonement for their guilt.
The liberated and denazified territory of the Ukrainian state should no longer be called Ukraine. Denazification should last at least one generation – 25 years.
Keep in mind this essay has the imprimatur of the Russian government; otherwise, it would not be published.
The Russians aren’t fighting for Christianity or to stop NATO. They are engaged in a genocide they are advertising to the world. Somehow “globalism” and “corruption” are supposed to be talismans to make people forget what they are really supporting when they assist Russia in any way.
If Russia stopped fighting the war would end, If Ukraine stopped fighting Ukraine would end. Let’s be crystal clear about this, Ukraine is fighting for its very existence. This war didn’t start because of any NATO ‘encroachment’, western interference or any other excuse the Putin fluffers care to throw out there. This war started because Putin and those around him don’t think a sovereign neighbor should exist.
Operational Level
There are a lot of signs that Ukraine is putting pieces in place for an offensive. Leopard tanks and Bradley IFVs have arrived and are in the process of repainting to Ukraine’s vehicle color scheme. Training at the battalion level is taking place in secure Ukrainian maneuver areas. The Germans suddenly transferred a Patriot battery to Ukraine this week, just as the first class of Ukrainian air defense troops was finishing training at Fort Bliss Sill, OK. There are also examples of shaping operations taking place. Supply dumps and troops concentrations behind the lines are receiving more attention. One of the most significant shifts is the number of destroyed Russian electronic warfare and radar units. The Open-Source Intelligence site offers intriguing analysis.
This is a classic shaping operation to deprive the Russians of counterbattery, air defense early warning, and electronic collecting and jamming capability. The arrival of Patriot will allow less capable systems to be moved forward and create a high-threat environment for Russian aircraft. In addition, the new Gepard and Avenger systems will be able to prevent Russian drones from seeing Ukrainian assembly areas and movements.
I’m going to take this opportunity to try to temper some expectations. There has been much talk of huge UA gains with the upcoming offensive. I don’t see a lot of huge gains for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, the battle area has condensed quite a bit. Last fall when the UAF rolled up large sections of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson oblasts the Russians were stretched thin. Second, the Russians have built up an impressive series of fixed fortifications. There are lines of trenches that run nearly the length of the line-of-contact. I expect to see some movement in Zaporzhiazhia oblast and some clean-up so to speak in the areas of the three listed above. Fortunately it seems the UAF is not sending out the new western tanks and IFVs piece-meal and look to be forming new maneuver units with them. The ground is still wet and muddy but is starting to dry. Once the bezdorizhzhia is done, the UA counteroffensive will kick off in earnest, until then expect to see more shaping operations.
Prisoner Exchanges Continue
Prisoner-of-war exchanges continue. This week 130 Ukrainian combatants were exchanged for an undisclosed number of Russians.
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy shared footage of the prisoner exchange that returned 130 Ukrainian defenders home in time for Easter
As of February 24, Ukraine has brought back 2,235 Ukrainian men and women from Russian captivity
— The New Voice of Ukraine (@NewVoiceUkraine) April 18, 2023
130 more #Ukrainian defenders were returned home from #Russian captivity today, on Easter. 48 of the 130 released warriors were considered missing ❤️🩹
Are Atrocities Only Committed by the Russian Army on Days Ending in “Y”?
Last week I posted about a graphic beheading of a Ukrainian soldier by Russian troops. Another video displayed last week, though not included in my post, was of several heads of Ukrainian soldiers on posts near Russian positions. Aleksandr Cherkasov, a Nobel Laureate and Russian human rights advocate who now lives in exile, says it is all in a day’s work.
Russian man explains why it’s so common for Russian soldiers to behead prisoners-of-war pic.twitter.com/H08FU6kTY2
And we know the Wagner Group has routinely committed atrocities in Syria.
Taken in context with the internationally vetted massacres at Bucha and other places, it is hard to disagree.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Donbas
Bakhmut Still Holds
Weeks after being assured by Gateway Pundit that Bakhmut had fallen, it was shocking to find there is still fighting there.
A close-up map of the approximate situation around the city of Bakhmut.
🇷🇺 forces have advanced westward across the rail line from the city centre, pushing further into the western districts of the city. pic.twitter.com/JAJwXqROEm
Sloviansk is nowhere near a combat zone, and the missiles struck nowhere near military targets. These strikes have no other purpose than to terrorize and make life miserable for the residents.
Another monstrous Russian war crime. Yesterday, S-300 missiles were fired at residential areas in Sloviansk and killed nine and injured 21. Emergency forces are racing to find survivors beneath the rubble…
On Easter Sunday, the Russians Target Ukrainian Churches
Here's what left from a church in Komyshuvakha, a town 30 km near Zaporizhzhia after today's strike by Russians. Most of Ukrainians celebrate Easter today. Russians say they celebrate Easter today too. But that's just verbal declaration. Their true beliefs you see on the photo pic.twitter.com/EDnehtROYd
In addition to a church in Komyshuvaha, Russians also shelled one in Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Seems like a retaliatory message for stripping Russia's Orthodox Church of its control in Ukraine pic.twitter.com/POHQpKMvlU
This could conceivably be an accident. What makes it curious is that the transformer substation had heavy-duty transformers needed to power the electric freight trains supplying the Russian Army in Ukraine. There is no admission of hostile action by the Russians or claims of responsibility by the Ukrainians, which is par for the course.
And in other news, a RU Su-34 pilot dropped a bomb on Belgorod yesterday. Accidentally. It damaged a large apartment block and left a huge crater. Karma is a bitch. . .
What’s Next?
We wait. The Ukrainians have a plan that they are keeping close to their vest. The fact that we haven’t seen Bradley IFVs involved in meaningless skirmishes shows that the Ukrainians might have overcome that strong temptation to give everyone a little of the “good stuff” and are hoarding it to use in a coordinated offensive.
Welcome to Week 59 of Putin’s War in Ukraine. This is the shortest update I’ve posted since I started because little is happening that is apparent outside of classified sources. Even the political side of the war seems to have taken a breather. The front lines are stable, though the daily grind around Bakhmut and Aviivka continues.
One of the hallmarks of the Islamic terrorist group ISiS is its penchant for filming beheadings. Not guillotine-type beheadings, but beheadings where the victim’s head is sawed off with a knife. The Russian military is going in the same direction. Yesterday, two of what can only be described as snuff flicks appeared on Russian Telegram outlets and other places. They show Ukrainian prisoners of war beheaded by their captors using a knife. And one video released by a Russian unit hints that others are to follow.
Russian war criminals from the DSHRG "Rusich" cut off the head of a captured Ukrainian soldier: "how many more such videos will pop up". Video 21+ https://t.co/7xEc0EsEVD
Bad things happen in wartime, and the most dangerous time for a prisoner is from when he lays down his weapon until he’s handed off for escort to the rear. Tempers run high, and if you’ve lost friends and comrades, you might not be in the mood to let bygones be bygones. This is not to justify the execution of prisoners but to note that it can be understood. That kind of killing in the aftermath of a firefight doesn’t resemble what occurs in these videos, where a man is held down and beheaded to the cheers of the onlookers.
It is more than a little unclear what the Russian military thinks it is accomplishing by feeding into the stereotypes of how the Russians operate.
The Russians are barbarians. That fact has been known in military circles for a long time. The Russian treatment of POW during both World Wars is the stuff of nightmares. Their conduct in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova, Syria and any place else they’ve inserted themselves in only got worse. Any semblance of civilization they once had is gone now.
Ukraine Funding Roundup
All kinds of numbers are thrown around on social media about US funding for Ukraine. I’m presenting these official documents without comment so we can all use the same numbers. For those not familiar with the jargon: appropriated is the amount of money Congress has allowed to be spent; uncommitted is untouched money; committed is money that the agency budgets for a particular activity; and “on contract” is the amount of awarded contracts.
$35 billion sounds like a lot of money doesn’t it? I suppose it is, however, that number is about 4% of the current year’s $886 billion defense budget.
Ukraine Restarts Export of Electricity
For several months, the Russian military targeted Ukraine’s electrical generation capacity (Putin’s War, Week 39. The Battle of the Generators). This campaign had four purposes: a) hamper Ukraine’s domestic economy, b) reduce Ukraine’s income from energy sales, c) inconvenience Ukraine’s energy customers, and d) impose misery on the Ukrainian population.
There is evidence that this campaign may have failed.
I can’t be the first person to think of this, but it occurs to me that Russian intelligence is so poor that the only targets they have data for are fixed, unmoveable targets like power plants and apartment blocks.
One aspect of the Pentagon leak not being discussed on state TV is the indication of how deeply Russia’s security and intel services have been penetrated by the US
But former spook Leonid Reshetnikov brought it up today, prompting Olga Skabeyeva to change subject very unsubtly pic.twitter.com/zbiupkuoA9
These leaks bother me. As someone who held clearances for most of my military career, the casual way they have been received by the current administration is horrific. Minecraft and Discord servers? What the actual FUCK? Although, the most recent leaker, an Air National Guardsman from Massachusetts, seems to be headed for a cell, and hopefully the death house.
More Fallout From the Minecraft Document Drop
The posting of about 100 documents, some of them of the highest security classifications, to a Minecraft Discord server continues to provide fodder for the media. Monday, I posted how a Russian Su-27 fired a missile at a British surveillance aircraft in international airspace; Minecraft Document Leak Reveals a Russian ‘Near Shootdown’ of a British Spy Plane. More detail, or so it is claimed, has emerged about that story.
“The Russian pilot had misinterpreted what a radar operator on the ground was saying to him and thought he had permission to fire. The pilot, who had locked on the British aircraft, fired, but the missile did not launch properly.” https://t.co/WSAwsnlCZB
If the people speaking to the New York Times aren’t just making stuff up, the Russian missile malfunctioned. This doesn’t explain why the pilot didn’t follow it up with another missile if he thought he had the authorization to attack.
The relentlessly stupid, like Michael Tracey, portrayed this as “boots on the ground.” “Boots on the ground” is a phrase pro-Russian sources use to imply that US forces are engaged in combat operations. There has been open-source mention of this presence, though without a number attached, going back to at least October. The US SOF operators are in Ukraine to assist with monitoring the transfer and custody of US weapons, vehicles, and ammunition to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It would be highly irregular for the number of SOF soldiers involved in a black operation to be thrown in on a personnel summary, and the security classification on the slide has been conveniently cropped…but this is Biden’s Pentagon, so who knows? [NOTE: I just stumbled across a complete copy of this document; it is classified SECRET/NOFORN. This indicates the SOF presence in Ukraine is not a huge secret.]
I’m not surprised there are a small number of US, British, French and Latvian SOF troops in Ukraine. Looking at the totals, there is one SF ODA, two platoons of UK SAS, a squad of 13th para Dragoons from France in Ukraine. I don’t know enough about the Latvian military to give a unit, but it looks like a couple of squads worth of troops. As a side note, Latvia has sent the 2nd most aid to Ukraine by % of GDP, only Estonia has sent a larger %, and then only a couple of tenths of a percentage point. The small number of troops indicates they are not there in any sort of combat or advisory role.
Is Russia Engaged in Religious Persecution in Occupied Ukraine?
The Institute of the Study of War, which I treat as generally reliable in reporting current events, says it looks like the Russians are engaging in a campaign of religious persecution in Occupied Ukraine. I’m agnostic on this report, but this is pretty much out of how Russia subjugated conquered territory. For example, a substantial number of the Poles murdered in the Katyn Forest were Roman Catholic clergy. It is also of interest because of all the fake claims of the Ukrainian government persecuting the Orthodox Church when all that has happened is that the Moscow-based Ukrainian Orthodox Church has been evicted from government-owned facilities and replaced with the Kiev-based Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
Here is an animation of the report and a Twitter thread giving details.
Four GIFs showing confluence between victim denomination and religious persecution event type for Russian forces that operated in Ukraine.
There won’t be much movement by either side until the bezdorizhzhya, the time of no roads or mud season, ends. The mud ended several military campaigns in the past, notably Operation Barbarossa during WWII. Once everything dries up, things will start popping.
Prisoner Exchange
As I’ve noted before, the only apparent diplomatic contact between Ukraine and Russia is in prisoner exchanges. This week, another 100 Ukrainian prisoners of war were repatriated.
Poland is immediately transferring 100 Rosomak APCs to Ukraine with a promise of 100 more later in the year. The Rosomak is a solid vehicle, and 200 of them will be a welcomed addition to Ukraine’s army.
https://youtu.be/gpyj8JkKIjA
What makes this more than just the usual weapons transfer is that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky personally announced the deal. This points to what is becoming a strong and strategic alliance between Poland and Ukraine.
Last week I posted a video of a couple of exotic attack methods employed by the Ukrainians (Putin’s War, Week 58. All Dressed up and No Place to Go). This video is of a Russian tank-infantry attack that didn’t go all that well.
Neither side is showing the ability to put together infantry, armor, and artillery in a coherent package. It is nearly like each of the combatants had three armies, each doing their own thing. My impression of fixed- and rotary-winged combat operations is the same. There is no coordination, and the missions we see on video don’t seem to have a larger purpose than to inflict casualties. Don’t get me wrong, inflicting casualties is good, but the operations must have a purpose.
My hope is that the UAF get their shit wired tight when it comes to combined arms for the upcoming offensive. Heroism is great on a poster or Tik Tok video, but as Georgie Patton said “No bastard ever won a war for his country by dying, He won it by making the other poor dumb bastard die for his country. An army is a team.”
The View From Inside
Ever wonder what it would be like to be inside a tank hit by an anti-tank missile? Now you can experience the excitement.
When you go to a map, you find that the bridge is just a few miles from the Russian border, the road it is on runs parallel to the border, and only 20 miles south, you find another bridge over the same river.
Bluntly, this was a public relations exercise disguised as a military operation.
Northern Front
No significant military operations took place. I would point out that Bakhmut, which the strategos at Gateway Pundit announced as lost two weeks ago, still holds. The video below makes the case that accepting a battle of attrition was the correct decision. I’m still not convinced.
I don’t know if this is a one-off or the beginning of a trend.
It looks like an expansion of the Ukrainian shaping operations to me. I saw some reporting that the target was a Russian command node.
What’s Next?
As I’ve said for the last few updates, we wait. Most of the pieces are in place on the Ukrainian side. The Russians obviously believe that a Ukrainian offensive is at hand. I think that when the ground dries enough, we will see how the Ukrainian spring offensive compares to the Russian winter offensive.
