In this image taken from a footage released by Armenian Defense Ministry on Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, Armenian army destroys Azerbaijani tanks at the contact line of the self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan. (Armenian Defense Ministry)
Its starting to look like there is going to be a full scale conventional war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
There has been ongoing low intensity conflict between the two nations since a war in the early 1990’s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The conflict is centered on the Nagorno-Karabakh region, inside Azerbaijan, but controlled by ethnic Armenians. The region declared independence in 1991 which led to the 1994 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
Azeri forces have moved into Nagorno-Karabakh at several locations today. Whether or not they’ll be able to hold onto their gains is up in the air. There was a general mobilization of Armenian forces today just after the incursion started. All reservists, 55 and younger, were recalled to active service.
It is unclear what started the most recent outbreak of hostilities, the bloodiest since 2016. Both sides are blaming the other. At least 23 have been killed and hundreds injured so far. That number includes civilian casualties.
There are reports of Turkish involvement on the Azeri side. The President of Nagorno-Karabakh said there were Turkish F-16s involved in supporting the Azeri advance in a security council meeting today. If this is true, there are larger issues at play. Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, along with Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. This could bring Russia into the fray, directly in conflict with Turkey.