News

Houthis Sink a Tanker in Gulf of Aden and Give the US a Black Eye but Enjoy the Great Plot Twist

27 January 2024
KITDAFBS

streiff | RedState

A Houthi terrorist-fired anti-ship ballistic missile hit a petroleum tanker in the Gulf of Aden, and the crew was forced to abandon the ship on Friday. The British-owned, Marshall Islands-flagged 110,000-ton tanker M/T Marlin Luanda was carrying a cargo of Russian naphtha from Greece to Singapore. A second ship, the Panama-flagged 109,000-ton tanker M/T Achilles (ownership is unknown), loaded with petroleum products taken on in Prmorsk, Russia, with no revealed destination, was also targeted but completed its transit safely.

Sal Mercogliano (@mercoglianos) has recorded the engagement from @MarineTraffic and removed the clutter of other ships. At 0:41, you can see the result of the impact as the M/T Marlin Luanda rapidly decelerates. If you are interested in what is happening in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden or shipping in general, give him a follow.

Sal is this editors go-to for international shipping news and analysis. If you’re on the Twitter err, X, you should probably be following him.

The crew of the M/T Marlin Luanda tried to save the ship but were overwhelmed and, according to reports, abandoned the ship. The Indian destroyer INS Visakhapatnam was first on the scene to render assistance. Since then other coalition warships have responded.

The loss of the M/T Marlin Luanda was confirmed in an interview with Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman C. Q. Brown on ABC.

The Indian navy has announced the fires aboard are now under control. It seems they sent a specialist damage control party onboard.

The community note is correct, the video is from a previous vessel fire and not of the M/V Marlin Luanda. As someone who chases new stories and breaking news, it’s easy to get fooled by that kind of thing.

Earlier in the day, the USS Carney came under attack from a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile and shot it down.

Key Points

1. This engagement happened in the same area as the incident on Thursday in which two US-flagged and US-owned container ships and the USS Gravely were forced to beat an ignominious retreat out of missile range.

2. The Houthis have successfully expanded the battlespace to include the northern half of the Gulf of Aden.

3. The stories do not mention the Iranian intelligence ship MV Behshad. Still, one has to assume it is lurking in the area and providing targeting information to the Houthis.

3. This episode makes Operation Prosperity Guardian more of a joke than it already is. A US carrier strike group in the area does no good if it cannot enforce freedom of navigation.

4. If the pattern established over the last couple of weeks holds, the combination of a US destroyer being attacked and a civilian tanker sunk will draw a response under the aegis of Operation Poseidon Archer.

5. We need to see if this strike will go after a few launchers or if it will hit command and control nodes that enable the Houthis to engage shipping targets.

6. A point I’ve made consistently since this fight over the control of the Red Sea began is that Jake Sullivan and Biden’s national security team are playing not to lose, rather than to win. They are obviously afraid of offending Iran by thumping their Houthi proxies. This timidity and indecisiveness has emboldened the Houthis. The problem with the Sullivan strategy is that the US Navy has to win 100 percent of the time. The Houthis only need an occasional big day, like today. to make their point to maritime insurance companies that they should avoid the Red Sea.

This wishy-washy, grad school style of national security planning, where responses are carefully calibrated, doesn’t work in real life. Biden has staked US prestige on keeping the Red Sea open, and it has been proven that he doesn’t have the huevos needed to do the job. It will take a generation to undo the damage he’s done.

Original Here

If this continues for much longer, it’s going to start to hurt. Prices for goods that would normally transit the Suez have already started to spike. The Cape routes take between 7 and 10 days longer than the Suez. Additionally, maritime insurance rates are already topping 1% of the value of the cargo on the routes that transit the Bab el Mandab strait. Normal rates are in the .2-.3% range.

Streiff is correct that this is all on Biden and Jake Sullivan. Neither has what it takes to end this farce.