Random News and Notes Iran Edition
Around 2000 last night the world changed. President Trump announced an attack on Iranian nuclear weapons facilities across that country.
9 Whiteman based B2 spirit bombers left the US in the early hours Saturday headed east. They almost immediately refueled indicating a takeoff at or near max gross payload.
Given the timelines involved that must have flown directly to Iran for the strike. There is one more thing of note. Not long before this late night/early morning takeoff, 6 B2s left Whiteman headed for Guam with full tanker support. In hindsight, this was clearly a head fake intended to confuse any interested watchers.
Speaking of confusing, there were no leaks about this operation. None at all. I’m not sure if this is the consequence of Signal-gate or that the officer corps is learning their literal freedom depends on the Man at the top.
Then, shortly after 2200, the President gave short – for him anyway – remarks about the operation. In the statement, the President announced that further actions were still on the table and thanked the Service members involved.
He also announced an 0800 presser at the Pentagon with SecDef Hegseth and Chair of Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine.
Hegseth and Caine discussed Operation Midnight Hammer from the podium at length. Here are some of the highlights. The flight time was over 18 hours and required multiple refuelings. The first munition – a GBU 57 MOP – was dropped at 1840 ET. All the targets were hit within a 25 minute window, and that included the last munitions used – Tomahawk missiles fired from subs in the Arabian sea.
It’s going to be a while before we get the full damage assessment. There are however some images coming out of Iran now that give us an idea.
Fordow
Ishfahan
Bear in mind, Ishfahan has been repeatedly struck by Israel over the past week.
As of now, I have not been able to find any confirmed images or video of the damage at the Natanz site. I do know, however, that the US strike was on a facility the Israelis did not attack previously. I am reasonably confident that the US hit a deeply buried uranium storage facility with MOPs.
The reaction has been mixed. The usual suspects, the ones who have been wrong about everything Iran related since 1979, say this is a dangerous escalation. Here’s the problem with that; most of it isn’t true. Is it an escalation? Of course it is. We dropped bombs – big fuckers too – on another nation.
But lets be honest with each other here, the Iranians can’t do anything about it other than bluster and posture. To call Iran a paper tiger is an insult to paper tigers. The IAF has complete and utter air dominance over Iran. They fly daylight strikes with impunity. In a week they have managed to take out nearly all of the Iranian air defenses that were left after the strikes this spring and destroy nearly 2/3rds of Iranian ballistic missile launchers.
But but their proxies. You mean the all but non-existent Hezbollah in Lebanon? They said they wern’t getting involved. Hamas? They are non-combat effective. That leaves the Houthi. Ansar Allah, the real name of the Houthi movement, cannot support itself. It requires Iranian aid to function.
Am I saying there won’t be a reaction? No. I am not. There will be something, but it won’t be big and it won’t/can’t be sustained or last for long. My biggest concern is that they try to close the Straits of Hormuz. That concern is somewhat allayed by the fact that Israel struck the Iran Navy facility at Bandar Abbas in the past few days.
The political push-back is similarly stupid and ill informed. Alexandria Ocasional Cortex called the strikes “disastrous” and called for impeachment.
She should go back to being a bartender. She might have been good at that – she clearly isn’t good as a lawmaker. The War Powers Act clearly and explicitly allows this kind of strike.
She wasn’t the only one up in arms over the strike. Temu Obama issued a statement. It was as incoherent and hypocritical as you’d expect.
