Iran Things
This piece, or one like it, has been in the works for a while. Unfortunately, every time it gets close to completion, something changes. This time, the only thing that is going to delay it again is actual open war breaking out.
The State of Play
Let’s take a look at where we are and how we got here. Everyone knows the Iranian Regime is the worlds largest state sponsor of terror, We also know that previous US administrations have bent over backwards to appease them. Not so with Trump. During his first term, he did a lot to enforce sanctions on the Iranians and went so far as to eliminate their top terror exporter, Quassim Solemani.
That trend has continued into his second term. Operation Midnight Hammer took out most of the Ayatollah’s ability to enrich uranium. Trump has not been shy about using US force to get the actions he wants from other countries.
Back in January, spontaneous anti-regime demonstrations erupted across Iran. They lasted for several days until the regime started cracking down. Trump encouraged the protesters.
He didn’t act then and since at least 30,000 Iranians were killed.
Pieces on the Board
Since that post from the President, the DOW has been moving assets into the region. First to arrive in the CENTCOM AO was the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. This happened within days of the post. Since then, several independent Arleigh Burke class missile Destroyers have arrived in the Arabian sea and Persian gulf. There are also an unknown number of guided missile subs in the region.
On the Med side, there are a couple of Burkes, at least one Virginia class sub and soon the USS Gerald R Ford CSG. Additionally, there have been almost non-stop deliveries of additional air defense equipment. Those deliveries which include Patriot batteries and at least one AEGIS Ashore system have gone to US bases across the Middle East and to Israel. Israel is hosting US air assets after the cowardly Brits refused the use of Diego Garcia for assets that may be used against Iran.
In addition to the two carrier air groups, there is a squadron of EA-18 Growlers, two squadrons of F-35s, a couple of squadrons of F-15Es, and 2/3rds of the total US AWACS fleet. The air and naval build up is equivalent to that of the build up before Desert Storm.
The Iranians on the other hand have maybe a half dozen airworthy F-14s from the time of the Shah, a couple of squadrons of Soviet era MiG-29s, Su-27s and some random one-off aircraft. They do have a pretty significant number of small craft combatants including some very small – 10 meters – missile boats. They also have a couple of frigates and corvettes in Bandar Abbas.
The one thing they do seem to have a lot of are missiles of various types. We all know about their ballistic missiles from their ‘reaction’ to Midnight Hammer. But they also have quite a few anti-ship missiles. Most of them are derivatives of the Chinese designs like the Silkworm.
What’s the Hold Up?
We’re wandering into the realms of speculation here, but my confidence interval on the following analysis is about 65%. I think Trump intended to strike as soon as the Honest Abe crossed into the CENTCOM area of responsibility. I think that some intelligence crossed someone’s desk indicating that the Iranians were going to retaliate hard at US and Israeli interests across the region.
That caused a necessary pause to bring in the needed air defense equipment. It also allowed for the US to move more strike assets into the AO.
Since then, the faction in the administration that is – and I hate to say this but it is a fact – pro Islamist seems to have pushed for negotiations with the Iranians. There were negotiations with Iran ever since the protests started and Trump made his comments about supporting the protesters, but the appeasement faction seemed to be taking the lead recently.
Let me be clear, Trump will always prefer talking to shooting, but he also knows that trying to negotiate with congenital liars like the Iranian regime is useless. I agree, there is a time to talk. but I think that time has passed.
What’s the End Game
This is more speculation obviously, but when we revisit this in a month or so I think you’ll find I was more right than wrong. My only hesitation here is to put a timeline on the events.
As of this afternoon in Geneva, the Iranian negotiations team rejected all the US demands. Among those were an end to the Iranian nuclear program and limits on their ballistic missile program. I suspect that is the end of negotiations.
At some point in the near future, the US will strike Iran. Were I a betting man, I’d put that strike sometime within the next 48-72 hours. But again, I am loathe to set a time line. The Ford CSG is about 20 hours from the Israeli coast.
I would expect the strikes to be comprehensive, taking out what remains of the Iranian air defense system, all fixed ballistic missile launch sites, any ballistic missile TELs (Transporter, Erector, Launcher) they can find and as much of the Iranian Navy as they have munitions for. Key regime targets will be struck. I expect Khamenei and his deputies will be targeted as will IRGC head Hossein Salami and his staff.
Will there be regime change? Maybe, probably even if the strikes take out the leadership. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah is ready to step in, and a goodly portion of the Iranian population supports him.
Now for my personal take. I think this attack – if/when it happens – is a bad idea geopolitically. I think another unstable regime in a region already full of them is something to be avoided if possible. That is why I cheered Midnight Hammer. It was a limited strike designed to do one thing, and it worked.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I think this strike has to happen from a moral perspective. And it is Trump’s doing that it is so. If he had not encouraged the protesters in such a visible way, we wouldn’t be on the verge of dropping tons of ordnance on Iran, killing thousands potentially.
