Operation Epic Fury

At 0200 EST, the opening salvos of what the Department of War is calling Operation Epic Fury were fired. The operation is a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign launched against Iranian targets. Israel has referred to its component as “Roaring Lion.” The strikes followed the collapse of nuclear negotiations in Geneva and President Donald Trump’s public 10-day ultimatum demanding Iran halt uranium enrichment, dismantle its missile programs, and cease support for proxy groups. The operation’s stated goals include destroying Iran’s missile production and inventory, neutralizing its naval capabilities, disrupting nuclear-related facilities, and hitting command-and-control sites—some located near Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s offices in Tehran—with the broader aim of severely degrading the regime’s ability to threaten the U.S. and its allies. Trump announced the operation in a Truth Social video, explicitly calling on the Iranian people to overthrow their government and warning that strikes would continue until the regime no longer posed a threat.

Your editor is generally not one to toot his own horn, but in this case he will. Thursday, saw the publication of a piece called Iran Things. In it I made some predictions. Based on what we’ve seen so far, those predictions have become reality. The biggest one was the timing. On Thursday, I gave it 48-72 hours before the strikes started. It was clear Trump was done with the Ayatollah’s foot-dragging in negotiations and it was only a matter of time before the sh*t hit the proverbial fan. Turns out, 48 hours was the winner.

The operation leveraged a months-long U.S. military buildup that positioned a large fleet of fighter jets and warships across the region. U.S. assets included F-22 Raptors, F-35 Lightning IIs, support aircraft, and Boeing KC-46 Pegasus tankers (some forward-deployed to Israel), alongside Israeli F-35I Adir stealth fighters and F-15 Eagles. In addition to crewed aircraft delivering precision airstrikes, the U.S. Navy fired sea-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles from vessels in the region against military industries, surface-to-surface missile sites, naval bases, ballistic missile launchers (to suppress retaliation), and leadership-linked targets. These coordinated air and sea strikes formed the initial waves, with planning focused on intelligence-driven, high-value targets to minimize Iranian response capacity.

Iran’s response has been swift and broad if ineffective and counterproductive. The IRGC launched dozens of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel (with air raid sirens and intercepts active across the country) and U.S. military positions in the region, including confirmed hits or attempted strikes on bases in Bahrain (U.S. 5th Fleet HQ), Qatar (Al Udeid), Kuwait, UAE, and others. Explosions and interceptor activity have been reported in Gulf states, though U.S. casualties remain unconfirmed at this stage. The Houthis have declared involvement, announcing a blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Iranian state media claims successes and reports civilian casualties (including unverified claims of children killed in strikes), while airspaces across the region are closing and Israel has declared a national state of emergency. H/T to Whynot for this post:

for every American naval operation in the Persian Gulf. It was struck.
UAE. Multiple missiles intercepted by Emirati air defenses. One civilian killed in Abu Dhabi from falling debris. The UAE defense ministry confirmed the intercepts. The Emirates just absorbed an act of war on its sovereign territory from a country it shares a maritime border with.
Qatar. Missile intercepted. Zero damage. The Qatari Interior Ministry confirmed. The same country Iran just attacked is the country that hosted Al Udeid for twenty years as a gesture of regional balance. That balance ended this morning.
Kuwait. KUNA state news agency confirmed missiles were “dealt with” in Kuwaiti airspace. No reported damage. Kuwait, which stayed neutral through every Gulf crisis since 1991, just had Iranian ballistic missiles flying over its cities.
Jordan. Two Iranian ballistic missiles shot down by Jordanian military. Confirmed by the Jordanian armed forces directly. Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles in June 2025 as well. That was in defense of Israel. This time Iran targeted Jordan itself.
Saudi Arabia. Fars News claims strikes. No confirmation from any Saudi source. No Tier 1 or Tier 2 verification. Either it did not happen or Riyadh is not yet ready to say it did. Both possibilities carry enormous implications.
Now understand what Iran just accomplished strategically. In attempting to retaliate against Israel and America, the IRGC fired missiles at six sovereign nations in a single morning. Not one of those nations attacked Iran. Bahrain did not bomb Tehran. The UAE did not launch strikes on Isfahan. Qatar hosted diplomatic back channels. Kuwait maintained neutrality for three decades. Jordan was mediating.
Iran just converted every neutral and semi-neutral state in the Gulf into a potential co-belligerent. Every nation whose airspace was violated, whose civilians were killed, whose sovereignty was breached now has legal and political justification to join whatever coalition forms next.
And the damage tells the real story. One civilian dead from debris. Intercepts across four countries. No confirmed destruction of any US military asset. No reported American casualties among 40,000 troops in theater. Iran fired at the entire Gulf and the Gulf caught almost everything.
Compare this to what Israel did to Tehran this morning. Precision strikes on the IRGC Intelligence Directorate. Explosions near the Supreme Leader’s office. Three detonations in central Tehran confirmed by Iranian state media itself.
One side hit what it aimed at. The other side hit one civilian with debris.
This is the asymmetry that will define the next 72 hours. Iran demonstrated intent to strike everywhere and capability to hit almost nothing. The Gulf states demonstrated they can defend themselves. And now those states must decide whether the country that just fired ballistic missiles across their borders gets to do it again.
They will not let it happen again.
Watch for the joint statement. Watch for airspace coordination between Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Kuwait City. Watch for the coalition that Iran just built against itself with a single salvo. Iran did not retaliate against Israel this morning.
Iran gave every country in the Middle East a reason to retaliate against Iran.

I included the entire text of a very long post for one reason: the analysis is spot on. That tantrum from Iran alienated nearly all the Gulf states that could have done anything for Iran. For what? Khamenei’s pride?

The next phases appear focused on leadership decapitation attempts, further missile/nuclear site destruction, and countering Iranian proxies—though escalation risks (including potential wider regional involvement) remain extremely high. Damage assessments, leadership fates, and civilian impacts are still emerging and contested across sources.

This next (and final) section is going to include a bunch of unconfirmed items. Normally, this isn’t something I would include, but in this case, I’m making an exception.

We start with a reported death. Multiple reports indicate that Amir Hatami, identified as Iran’s Defense Minister or commander-in-chief of the Iranian army, was eliminated in strikes attributed to Israel and possibly the United States. Some sources claim the death is confirmed, while others note it remains unconfirmed.

This next one is – in my opinion – mere wish-casting but I think it is important enough to include. The Israelis seem to think Ali Khamenei was “almost certainly” killed in the strike on his compound.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry says that is not true and Khamenei will appear in a televised speech soon.

It is being reported that the US used one-way attack drones in the operation. If this is true, and right now I see no reason to doubt the reports I’ve seen, it is the first time the US has used such ordnance in combat.