A Quick Lesson

There is a distinct possibility that something is popping off in Iran right now. And here is a quick lesson on what I watch to find out and the thought process for my analysis.

This article started with a post on X from one of the OSINT (Open Source INTelligence) accounts I follow on that platform. The post pointed out some unusual air traffic patterns involving civil flights over Iran:

The poster, an Israeli gent, then saw and posted this:

Being unusual, it caught my eye. so I looked through the replies and the reply guys found several more flights over Iran in holding patterns or diverting.

One is whatever, two is a coincidence, but there are several flights doing similar things all across Iran, and that folks, constitutes a pattern. A pattern like this typically means something. What isn’t always clear but in this case it points to war jitters. Because. . .

. . . When you add that pattern to the threats the IRGC issued about an upcoming missile salvo aimed at Israel, you have the makings of an event™. Right now, what that event is is unclear, but based on recent events in the region, it looks war-like to me.

I suppose we have to take a look at why Iran made that explicit threat. Earlier today, the IDF hit the headquarters of Hezbollah in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh after repeated rocket attacks on Northern Israel by the terror org.

Jerusalem called the White House to clarify Washington’s position about the cease-fire. Netanyahu said “Hezbollah broke the agreement” and asked ‘do we have the green light?’ Trump to his credit said yes.

Do any of these things indicate something is imminent? Not on their own, but when taken as a group and not as discrete events, it becomes much more suggestive. Predictive almost.

Am I saying we’re going to wake up tomorrow to a resumption of the conflict? It isn’t that cut and dried, but the chances are a lot higher than they were yesterday.